AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 eh, the stuff moving across OKC now really low cap the potential today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Just now, bjc3395 said: So you’ve got more experience than me. In a typical Plains setup i would agree that MCS in NW OK pretty much confines the front to I-40, maybe even S. But.. this is anomalous for the Plains. Would argue the LL flow keeps that boundary N of 40.. perhaps closer to 412. Your thoughts from experience? I think it's too early to tell at this point. The current trend is basically between the bullish HRRR solutions and the Bustish NAM NEST solutions. Both models show the outflow boundary from early activity "holding latitude" against the southerly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 1 minute ago, lokee said: big increase over southern sections form an hour ago 12z NAM Nest still likes more linear storm mode it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 People forgetting a giant MCS went through AL during morning of 4/27/11. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeganR Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 I appreciate all the information provided in here, y’all. Anxious times here in Oklahoma. I think everyone here has been warned and is prepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 1 minute ago, jpeters3 said: I think it's too early to tell at this point. The current trend is basically between the bullish HRRR solutions and the Bustish NAM NEST solutions. Both models show the outflow boundary from early activity "holding latitude" against the southerly flow. Important to note 3k NAM has been NOT a good model this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 4 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: big increase over southern sections form an hour ago 12z NAM Nest still likes more linear storm mode it seems NAM nest is trash, and goes insta-linear a lot of the time. It also did so on Friday in NW KS/SW NEB when myself and many others got that beautiful long-track supercell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Just now, Wmsptwx said: People forgetting a giant MCS went through AL during morning of 4/27/11. correct...and the WF didn't make it as far north as forecast...most TN at one time was in the bullesye too (MOD risk) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 4 minutes ago, jojo762 said: You realize an hour ago that meteorologists far more experienced than anyone in here extended that high risk to include them, correct? Look at literally every other portion of the high risk and there is zero meaningful deep convection. Just let us objectively assess the situation. Nobody is prematurely calling bust at this point, we're just calling it as we see it and you haven't the faintest idea how much experience any of us have. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said: Important to note 3k NAM has been NOT a good model this year. This statement isn't at all quantitatively supported. Also, nobody is jumping on the NAM nest solution as the most likely outcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 It seems like whenever there's a large metro in the high risk area, far too much focus is dedicated to that as apoosed to the overall synoptic setup. Even if the warm front is a bit south of what the HRRR had it depicted, there's still a ton of real estate with extreme severe weather parameters to worry about. Storm mode is still to be determined but overall things will be more pleasant if we don't put as much emphasis on OKC and watch things unfold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okiestormgeek Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 13z HRRR still discrete and even has discrete cells in the warm sector developing near the Metroplex at 20z moving into southeast OK..I assume developing on a confluence axis in the open warm sector Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Just now, mob1 said: It seems like whenever there's a large metro in the high risk area, far too much focus is dedicated to that as apoosed to the overall synoptic setup. Even if the warm front is a bit south of what the HRRR had it depicted, there's still a ton of real estate with extreme severe weather parameters to worry about. Storm mode is still to be determined but overall things will be more pleasant if we don't put as much emphasis on OKC and watch things unfold. Precisely... Take a look at KFDR and you’ll see there’s **zero** convection anywhere close to *most* of the main risk area, or mesonet and observe that there is mid/upper 60s dewpoints in all of southern OK with the 60 degree isodrosotherm (nearly the effective warm front) bisecting the state. A model does not have to be absolutely perfect at all times to get from point A to point B. James Corriea actually just referenced this on twitter from the HWT. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 12Z 3K NAM has the front rather significantly further north than previous runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 As I look at the current Vance radar in motion it seems that most of the convection is moving to the north/northeast. At present I would not worry about MCS outflow extending too far southward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 30 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Today is also the anniversary of the Moore, OK tornado in 2013. Hope that is not an ominous sign. Simple coincidence, nothing more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 My basement is likely going to turn into a swimming pool during this outbreak. Trying to come up with a way to add jacuzzi jets and maybe I’ll duct my heater straight into the water to make it a hot tub. Outbreak watch Party at my place. Bring your speedos and cheap beer and perhaps some inner tubes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okiestormgeek Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 OUN's latest video update used about the strongest possible language I've heard them use before. They usually err on the side of being conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 6 minutes ago, okiestormgeek said: OUN's latest video update used about the strongest possible language I've heard them use before. They usually err on the side of being conservative. Yes. The certainty of severity conveyed in the video seems to indicate we’re looking at something historic for this part of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 11 minutes ago, okiestormgeek said: OUN's latest video update used about the strongest possible language I've heard them use before. They usually err on the side of being conservative. Do you have a link to the video? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okiestormgeek Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 This is insane. https://twitter.com/spann/status/1130469922503647233 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okiestormgeek Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 I started up a slack channel if anyone here is interested in real-time chat, especially considering how fast-moving this event is looking likely to be. https://join.slack.com/t/severe-weather-group/shared_invite/enQtNjMzNjExNjYwMjI1LWJmNWNmYzM4YzNiYTY1NDMwNTdiZTgwYTkxMzVjZjM4MWMyZWJmYTA0OTdmYzMzMGY0ZjQxMGE5NDBmMDUzMTY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 How unusual is it for the highest tornado threat to line up with the highest flash flood threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 WF is already north of the OKC metro, making its way up to Guthrie/Kingfisher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Just now, Upper Level LOL said: WF is already north of the OKC metro, making its way up to Guthrie/Kingfisher Wow that is racing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimrunsfar Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 How concerning/relevant is this apparent clearing back in West Texas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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