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Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats


Quincy
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Just now, bjc3395 said:

So you’ve got more experience than me. In a typical Plains setup i would agree that MCS in NW OK pretty much confines the front to I-40, maybe even S. But.. this is anomalous for the Plains. Would argue the LL flow keeps that boundary N of 40.. perhaps closer to 412. Your thoughts from experience? 

I think it's too early to tell at this point.  The current trend is basically between the bullish HRRR solutions and the Bustish NAM NEST solutions.  Both models show the outflow boundary from early activity "holding latitude" against the southerly flow.

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1 minute ago, jpeters3 said:

I think it's too early to tell at this point.  The current trend is basically between the bullish HRRR solutions and the Bustish NAM NEST solutions.  Both models show the outflow boundary from early activity "holding latitude" against the southerly flow.

Important to note 3k NAM has been NOT a good model this year.

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4 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

big increase over southern sections form an hour ago

12z NAM Nest still likes more linear storm mode it seems

NAM nest is trash, and goes insta-linear a lot of the time. It also did so on Friday in NW KS/SW NEB when myself and many others got that beautiful long-track supercell.

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4 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

You realize an hour ago that meteorologists far more experienced than anyone in here extended that high risk to include them, correct? Look at literally every other portion of the high risk and there is zero meaningful deep convection. 

Just let us objectively assess the situation. Nobody is prematurely calling bust at this point, we're just calling it as we see it and you haven't the faintest idea how much experience any of us have. 

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1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said:

Important to note 3k NAM has been NOT a good model this year.

This statement isn't at all quantitatively supported.  Also, nobody is jumping on the NAM nest solution as the most likely outcome.

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It seems like whenever there's a large metro in the high risk area, far too much focus is dedicated to that as apoosed to the overall synoptic setup. Even if the warm front is a bit south of what the HRRR had it depicted, there's still a ton of real estate with extreme severe weather parameters to worry about. Storm mode is still to be determined but overall things will be more pleasant if we don't put as much emphasis on OKC and watch things unfold. 

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Just now, mob1 said:

It seems like whenever there's a large metro in the high risk area, far too much focus is dedicated to that as apoosed to the overall synoptic setup. Even if the warm front is a bit south of what the HRRR had it depicted, there's still a ton of real estate with extreme severe weather parameters to worry about. Storm mode is still to be determined but overall things will be more pleasant if we don't put as much emphasis on OKC and watch things unfold. 

Precisely... Take a look at KFDR and you’ll see there’s **zero** convection anywhere close to *most* of the main risk area, or mesonet and observe that there is mid/upper 60s dewpoints in all of southern OK with the 60 degree isodrosotherm (nearly the effective warm front) bisecting the state.

A model does not have to be absolutely perfect at all times to get from point A to point B. James Corriea actually just referenced this on twitter from the HWT. 

 

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My basement is likely going to turn into a swimming pool during this outbreak. Trying to come up with a way to add jacuzzi jets and maybe I’ll duct my heater straight into the water to make it a hot tub.

Outbreak watch Party at my place. Bring your speedos and cheap beer and perhaps some inner tubes.

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6 minutes ago, okiestormgeek said:

OUN's latest video update used about the strongest possible language I've heard them use before. They usually err on the side of being conservative. 

Yes. The certainty of severity conveyed in the video seems to indicate we’re looking at something historic for this part of the country. 

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