Radtechwxman Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 It's legit. Saw someone share a screenshot from nws chat confirming high risk upgrade at 06z outlook. But can't share the image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 It's legit. Saw someone share a screenshot from nws chat confirming high risk upgrade at 06z outlook. But can't share the imageYup, saw it firsthand. Wasn't gonna put it out yet, but since you did I'll confirm, lol. Parts of W TX, TX Panhandle and W OK. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Broyles? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Quincy is discussing the event tomorrow live on Twitter right now (you can actually hear notifications from this thread on his stream). https://twitter.com/stormchaserQ/status/1130320524385505280 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Didn't say who. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, SmokeEater said: Yup, saw it firsthand. Wasn't gonna put it out yet, but since you did I'll confirm, lol. Parts of W TX, TX Panhandle and W OK. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Doesn't change the uncertainty, IMO, but probably rightfully acknowledges the possible historic "ceiling" event. If this event goes, it will go big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Since Broyles did the 01z update this evening, it'll be him. He also did the previous 06z Day 1 outlook.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 I like to use the HRRR as a time-lagged ensemble, and I gotta say.. The trends on the HRRR *aren't* pretty. Potentially historic setup tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Just now, bjc3395 said: I like to use the HRRR as a time-lagged ensemble, and I gotta say.. The trends on the HRRR *aren't* pretty. Potentially historic setup tomorrow. Hour 18 (21Z) on the 03Z HRRR is *unreal*... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Yea it's very interesting that it's trending *down*, farther away from the WRF suite. The HRRR was significant as it was, but is seemingly getting more significant. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Just for fun, output from a 250 m horizontal grid spacing simulation I ran with one of the insane NAM soundings. Shading is simulated radar reflectivity at 1 km, black outline is 3 m/s 1 km updraft, and blue contours are surface temperature deficit. REFL_175.pdf 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 As .png. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Coincidentally in Norman this week for the HWT. The mood is pretty ominous. Really don’t like the look of the flash flooding threat either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 I also think even barring any MCS activity along/north of warm front tomorrow morning(unlikely, but just for purposes of this post), I think new warm front development is gonna grow upscale into an MCS almost immediately. High CAPE values, coupled with a very strong 50kt LLJ and largely boundary parallel storm motion vectors scream upscale growth and subsequently, this is likely to be where the highest flash flooding threat is located. Given the strong low level shear, decent 0-3km CAPE(~150 J/kg) and low LCLs, even if a large MCS blows up, still could have a threat of embedded tornadic circulations, coupled with possible flash flooding? That has the potential to pose further issues, even if the significant tornado threat is farther away from the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Blue box coming for W TX around 07z https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0696.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Also was just thinking about the possibility of dual high risks tomorrow. One issued by the WPC for flooding in N OK. The other being issued by the SPC for tornadoes, as it sounds like we're already getting that one. Don't think that's ever happened before, but I also don't think the WPC has been doing SPC style risks for very long, so small sample size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Presented without comment. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Probably skewed by CAMs with MCS/linear modes which produce large swaths of High UH usually. But the W TX signal is legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 20, 2019 Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 4 minutes ago, bjc3395 said: Probably skewed by CAMs with MCS/linear modes which produce large swaths of High UH usually. But the W TX signal is legit. It's also the max of where the parameters overlap (larger 0-1km SRH north/larger buoyancy south). That's why SPC SREF tornado ingredients/probability has been 75-90% in that same part of southwestern Oklahoma. The bullseye isn't always where the most storms verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 I wonder how many PDS tornado watches we will end up having this Monday. Glad to hear via various media that people in the affected areas are taking this quite seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, Indystorm said: I wonder how many PDS tornado watches we will end up having this Monday. Glad to hear via various media that people in the affected areas are taking this quite seriously. Probably 1 or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 The talk started around Friday then it ramped up Sat night. FB has been littered with updates all day on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 High risk it is. Quote DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2019 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND... ..SUMMARY AN OUTBREAK OF STRONG TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ADDITION, MANY OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE CONCENTRATED FROM WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA, KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHEAST NEW YORK INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. ...TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT... ..SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AN IMPRESSIVE AND POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY AS A POWERFUL 75 TO 90 KNOT MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, A CORRIDOR OF STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND EASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. AS THE MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A TORNADO OUTBREAK IS LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE TORNADO OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS EVENT SHOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE INSTABILITY CORRIDOR FROM CHILDRESS, TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD TO CLINTON, OKLAHOMA SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000 TO 4500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 50 TO 65 KT RANGE. IN ADDITION, HODOGRAPHS ARE LARGE AND LOOPED WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. 0-3 KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE FORECAST TO STEADILY INCREASE FROM ABOUT 300 M2/S2 IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO ABOUT 450 M2/S2 BY EARLY EVENING AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET BECOMES BETTER FOCUSED. THIS WILL BE IDEAL FOR A TORNADO OUTBREAK WITH STRONG TORNADOES UPSTREAM AND TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THE CURRENT THINKING CONCERNING THE DETAILS IS THAT THE FIRST ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BEGIN EARLY AS THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE IN WEST TEXAS AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. INITIALLY, LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT BUT AS THESE STORMS MATURE, TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER AND MORE DOMINANT CELLS. ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE NEAR THE WARM FRONT IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. A TORNADO THREAT WILL TRANSITION TO LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO KANSAS TO THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS FIRST ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD, AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR, ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF EXTREME INSTABILITY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THE SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO START DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS REPEAT INITIATION TAKES PLACE IN WEST TEXAS. RAPID SUPERCELL FORMATION IS FORECAST ALONG THE I-27 CORRIDOR FROM THE VICINITY OF LUBBOCK NORTHWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF AMARILLO. A CLUSTER OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DURING THE EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONAL TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AT THAT TIME, THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL COUPLE WITH A HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE AND SEASONABLY STRONG MID-LEVEL JET, MAKING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES AND POSSIBLY VIOLENT TORNADOES. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR LONG-TRACK TORNADOES WILL EXIST ALONG THE CORRIDOR FROM NEAR LUBBOCK NORTHEASTWARD TO CHILDRESS, ALTUS, LAWTON, CLINTON TO JUST WEST OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY AND ENID VICINITIES. AFTER CONSIDERABLE DELIBERATION, A HIGH RISK WILL BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF WEST TEXAS, THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO THREAT, CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. STRONG INSTABILITY, ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MAKE HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS, MAINLY IN WEST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. A WIND-DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DUE TO THE EXPECTED INTENSE NATURE OF THE STORMS. THE WIND-DAMAGE THREAT, INCLUDING SOME GUSTS ABOVE 70 KT, SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS SQUALL LINE ORGANIZES AND MOVES QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ..SOUTHEAST NEW YORK/NEW ENGLAND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEAST TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK AND INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S F SHOULD RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS BY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHEAST NEW YORK INTO MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AROUND MIDDAY ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS CONVECTION MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MOIST SECTOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS FROM SPRINGFIELD, MASSACHUSETTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO VERMONT AT 21Z SHOW MLCAPE VALUES PEAKING IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE AND HAVE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35 KT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELLS WITH WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. A FEW ROTATING STORMS WITH A LARGE-HAIL THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP. ..BROYLES/WENDT.. 05/20/2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Quite a large hatched area for tornadoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 There it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Separate probs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Wow this is going to be some day coming up for those areas in the high/moderate risk. I will be watching closely all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 This is some of the strongest wording I've personally read prior to an event(ie classics like 4/14/12 or 4/27/11 don't count because I read those after the event --- so basically since 2015). They weren't this bullish on any of the 2017 events. Heck, they even mentioned violent tornadoes. The amount of prior outlooks that mention violent tornadoes has to be no more than a handful. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 This is the strongest wording I’ve seen them use in years. 4-14-12 and 4-27-2011 are the only recent ones I recall coming close (purely based on wording). It’s very rare, but definitely warranted given this extremely high-end set-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 The tornado outbreak is expected to continue into the overnight period. This event should result in a significant threat to life and property. That is some language there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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