lokee Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Can we stop with the random, uncaptioned screencaps? This is going to be a busy enough day already 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Just now, Upper Level LOL said: Can we stop with the random, uncaptioned screencaps? This is going to be a busy enough day already Sorry just trying to help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Storms and rain have cleared entire OKC metro, warm front continuing to push northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Can we stop with the random, uncaptioned screencaps? This is going to be a busy enough day alreadyThere’s also a separate threat specifically for today created. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Current VAD at KFDR shows some pretty significant lower level backing above 6Kft... anybody happen to know if previous models had been showing VBV in the morning around 15Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 The lack of precip in the area from OKC sw to Lubbock is very ominous since it will lead to higher insolation and CAPE values for later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Most of the 12Z CAMs caved to the HRRR and depict numerous discrete supercells across the high risk area later this afternoon. Buckle up. Scary day evolving for OK and TX. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Very light returns are popping up to the NW and to the SW of Okc. Looks much like what happened earlier this morning at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, lokee said: Very light returns are popping up to the NW and to the SW of Okc. Looks much like what happened earlier this morning at this point. You should anticipate this throughout the day. WAA regime storms, owing to intense low-level moisture advection into the area. Some of them later on may be able to become surface-based and become tornadic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 As I believe Quincy mentioned earlier in this thread there will be t storms that develop within the warm sector south of the WF, along the WF itself, and later coming off the dry line. These were the three areas of concern to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 I think surface based convection developing in the TX panhandle now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 MCD for what will be the first watch of the day. Wording makes it sound like a PDS watch is at least possible if not probable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 20, 2019 Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 24 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Current VAD at KFDR shows some pretty significant lower level backing above 6Kft... anybody happen to know if previous models had been showing VBV in the morning around 15Z? Mesoanalysis shows S/SSE flow at 700mb in the area, but it veers to SW just to the west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 9 minutes ago, Upper Level LOL said: MCD for what will be the first watch of the day. Wording makes it sound like a PDS watch is at least possible if not probable Mesoscale Discussion 0698 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019 Areas affected...portions of northwest TX...TX Panhandle...and western OK Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 201541Z - 201815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A tornado watch will likely be needed by 1pm CDT. Storm initiation is expected as early as 1-2pm along the dryline. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows the initial stages of a bubbling cumulus field across the Texas South Plains from near Midland northward to Lubbock. Late morning surface observations show south-southeasterlies with rapid moisture advection occurring with dewpoints rising to near 70 degrees F near the Low Rolling Plains. Despite the scattered low cloud cover, additional heating and moistening will contribute to extreme buoyancy (4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE) developing by early-mid afternoon east of a sharping dryline in parts of northwest and west TX. The aforementioned theta-e increase and weak large-scale forcing will likely lead to storms explosively developing during the 1pm-3pm period. Strong and veering low-level winds beneath very strong deep-layer wind fields will likely result in sickle-shaped hodographs over the TX Panhandle and western OK this afternoon. 0-1km SRH around 250 m2/s2 coupled with the extreme buoyancy will favor long-track and potentially violent tornadoes with the strongest storms. Giant hail (3-4+ inches in diameter) will be possible. Farther south, tornadoes and very large hail are possible with any supercells that develop near the Permian Basin. ..Smith/Hart.. 05/20/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SandySurvivor Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 the tornado threat from sandy was more serious than this setup 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Just now, SandySurvivor said: the tornado threat from sandy was more serious than this setup LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 $20 says the 1630z update has a hatched 45% tor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMT417 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Just now, SandySurvivor said: the tornado threat from sandy was more serious than this setup Yeah....Ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern stream Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, SandySurvivor said: the tornado threat from sandy was more serious than this setup Stop trolling. Today is not the day for that. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 PDS Tornado Watch coming for W and C OK by 1-2pm CDT - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0699.html Mesoscale Discussion 0699 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019 Areas affected...southwest into central OK...western north-central TX Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 201617Z - 201845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch will likely be needed for portions of central and western OK. Observational trends and short-term model guidance suggest a watch being issued during the 1pm-2pm period. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a bubbling cumulus field over western north-central TX into southwest and south-central OK. Rapid moisture advection is occurring late this morning with surface dewpoints rising into the lower 70s over southern OK. Upwards of 4000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected by early to mid afternoon across western and central OK with intensifying wind profiles. Short-term model guidance appears to have a reasonable depiction of free warm sector initiation occurring over southwest and south-central OK during the 2-3pm period. The observational trend in visible satellite imagery showing more pronounced bands of low cloud cover ---perhaps indicative of horizontal convective rolls and/or low-level confluence zones is supportive evidence for this model-based depiction. The expectation is for storms to develop on the northern half of these cloud features with explosive supercell development likely thereafter. Forecast soundings show a very rare combination of intense low-level SRH, very moist boundary, and extreme buoyancy. As such, the risk for strong to violent tornadoes appears to be increasing later this afternoon into the early evening. ..Smith.. 05/20/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Just now, yoda said: PDS Watch coming for W and C OK by 1-2pm CDT https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0699.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0699 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL OK...WESTERN NORTH-CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 201617Z - 201845Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OK. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WATCH BEING ISSUED DURING THE 1PM-2PM PERIOD. DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BUBBLING CUMULUS FIELD OVER WESTERN NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OK. RAPID MOISTURE ADVECTION IS OCCURRING LATE THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 70S OVER SOUTHERN OK. UPWARDS OF 4000 J/KG MLCAPE IS EXPECTED BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OK WITH INTENSIFYING WIND PROFILES. SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE A REASONABLE DEPICTION OF FREE WARM SECTOR INITIATION OCCURRING OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OK DURING THE 2-3PM PERIOD. THE OBSERVATIONAL TREND IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MORE PRONOUNCED BANDS OF LOW CLOUD COVER ---PERHAPS INDICATIVE OF HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS AND/OR LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONES IS SUPPORTIVE EVIDENCE FOR THIS MODEL-BASED DEPICTION. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE NORTHERN HALF OF THESE CLOUD FEATURES WITH EXPLOSIVE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY THEREAFTER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY RARE COMBINATION OF INTENSE LOW-LEVEL SRH, VERY MOIST BOUNDARY, AND EXTREME BUOYANCY. AS SUCH, THE RISK FOR STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE INCREASING LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ..SMITH.. 05/20/2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 47 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Most of the 12Z CAMs caved to the HRRR and depict numerous discrete supercells across the high risk area later this afternoon. Buckle up. Scary day evolving for OK and TX. Even the NAM NEST has caved a bit. At this point, i would discount that solution anyway since it has very poorly handled MCS development/movement earlier in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 These MDs are the most strongly worded I’ve seen since 4-27-2011. SPC seems very confident that were going to see several long-track and potentially violent tornadoes today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Which thread are we using for todays event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 12 minutes ago, SandySurvivor said: the tornado threat from sandy was more serious than this setup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 45% tornado potential hatched introduced in the most recent outlook. First time since 4/14/12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2019 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND... ..SUMMARY AN OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES, SOME POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACK AND VIOLENT, IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MORE ISOLATED BUT STILL POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER, INCLUDING TORNADOES AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND HAIL, IS POSSIBLE IN SURROUNDING PARTS OF TEXAS, OKLAHOMA, KANSAS, AND ARKANSAS. ..SOUTHERN PLAINS A TORNADO OUTBREAK IS FORECAST TO UNFOLD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TX AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OK. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S YIELDING VERY HIGH AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-5000 J/KG. MEANWHILE, SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALSO RAPIDLY INCREASING AS A 50-60 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGHENS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS LEADING TO A RARE COMBINATION OF EXTREME INSTABILITY AND LARGE HODOGRAPHS AS DEPICTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGHOUT THE REGION. GIVEN THE WEAK CAPPING INVERSION, STRONG LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION, AND APPROACHING LARGE-SCALE FORCING, ALL SIGNS POINT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS INTENSE SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MDT AND HIGH RISK AREAS. ANY STORM THAT PERSISTS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL POSE A RISK OF STRONG TORNADOES, VERY LARGE HAIL, AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE CORRIDOR OF GREATEST CONCERN, INCLUDING A THREAT OF LONG-TRACK AND POTENTIALLY VIOLENT TORNADOES, WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THESE AREAS, WITH NEW STORMS FORMING THIS EVENING OVER WEST TX AND SPREADING ACROSS NORTH TX AND MUCH OF OK OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH THE NIGHT IN SOME AREAS. ..NORTHEAST STATES RELATIVELY STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NY, WHERE A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS PRESENT. SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN THIS AREA, AND SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL IN THE STRONGER CELLS. ..HART/KARSTENS.. 05/20/2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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