lokee Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Showers in the Okc metro area right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 20, 2019 Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 It looks like the HRRR may have overcompensated a bit with trending north with the warm front. If one adjusts a bit south based on trends/radar imagery, it would bring the warm front to roughly or perhaps just north of I-40. It does depend on how far south early day convection extends, meaning if any surging outflow shunts northward lift of the front. With that said, with such an anomalously strong daytime low-level jet, one has to wonder of the warm front would not keep lifting north for a bit. I do think that the HRRR might be a bit overdone with discrete convection north of I-40 from the eastern Texas panhandle into western Oklahoma, as a result, but we'll see. Anyway, the 12z MAF/Midland, TX sounding is very telling. The fact that we have a volatile, high-end severe environment already in place at 7 in the morning and this far west, should be alarming. The environment near MAF will advect northeast through the day with the greatest parameter space likely from the Caprock region and Northwest Texas into southwestern Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Lol, this is a thing in OK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 On 5/20/2019 at 1:34 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Lol, this is a thing in OK? That's Mike Morgan, so yes, lol. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 On 5/20/2019 at 1:34 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Lol, this is a thing in OK? Expand you should follow Mike Morgan, he comes up with his own F-scale ratings ahead of time too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Koco in Okc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 At least their color scale matches SPC, if not the meaning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okiestormgeek Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 KOCO to a lesser extent and KFOR in OKC are pretty notorious with the locals for fear mongering. KWTV and David Payne are the most professional IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 On 5/20/2019 at 1:43 PM, okiestormgeek said: KOCO to a lesser extent and KFOR in OKC are pretty notorious with the locals for fear mongering. KWTV and David Payne are the most professional IMO. Expand I agree with that 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Think the warm front is going to hang up roughly along Highway 412 in OK. Sure outflow will sag south some but anomalous low level flow regime will almost surely keep the OFB from surging south into I-40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 News 9 is the "best," but is by no means perfect. I avoid Mike Morgan out of principle for his 5/21/13 coverage, telling people to get in their cars and drive south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Today is also the anniversary of the Moore, OK tornado in 2013. Hope that is not an ominous sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 I’ve got a horrible feeling about today. Let’s just hope these tornadoes avoid people as much as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okiestormgeek Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 On 5/20/2019 at 1:44 PM, Upper Level LOL said: News 9 is the "best," but is by no means perfect. I avoid Mike Morgan out of principle for his 5/20/13 coverage, telling people to get in their cars and drive south Expand Completely agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 MCS in northwest Oklahoma backbuilding a bit to the south according to radar. Time will tell if it backbuilds all the way into Texas (and thus verifying the NAM 3k solution). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 On 5/20/2019 at 1:45 PM, Brick Tamland said: Today is also the anniversary of the Moore, OK tornado in 2013. Hope that is not an ominous sign. Expand If an EF4 or 5 can find a way to hit Moore it probably will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boo radley Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 To be honest sometimes it has worked, for a storm as destructive as May 3, 1999 to stay under 100 fatalities and even May 20, 2013 to stay relatively low they do a good job of giving heads up. El Reno storm could've been bad, but that storm was plain odd in every way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 On 5/20/2019 at 1:44 PM, Upper Level LOL said: News 9 is the "best," but is by no means perfect. I avoid Mike Morgan out of principle for his 5/20/13 coverage, telling people to get in their cars and drive southMoreso 5/31, he singlehandedly had people running south in sheer terror when the supercell moved into OKC. It's a shame too, he knows his stuff and was great on 5/3/99.Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okiestormgeek Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Yeah this is a skinny line of rain, no reason it holds dews and temps low enough to matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 All current meaningful convection is mostly north of the high risk area... what’s everyone complaining about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 On 5/20/2019 at 1:49 PM, jojo762 said: All current meaningful convection is mostly north of the high risk area... what’s everyone complaining about? Expand you realize its 60 and pouring rain in OKC right now, right? and they are under a high risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 On 5/20/2019 at 1:49 PM, jojo762 said: All current convection is mostly north of the high risk area... what’s everyone complaining about? Expand Nobody is complaining. Experienced professional meteorologists are providing objective analysis of the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Not even 9 yet, and the thread is already derailing. Not shocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 On 5/20/2019 at 1:32 PM, Quincy said: It looks like the HRRR may have overcompensated a bit with trending north with the warm front. If one adjusts a bit south based on trends/radar imagery, it would bring the warm front to roughly or perhaps just north of I-40. It does depend on how far south early day convection extends, meaning if any surging outflow shunts northward lift of the front. With that said, with such an anomalously strong daytime low-level jet, one has to wonder of the warm front would not keep lifting north for a bit. I do think that the HRRR might be a bit overdone with discrete convection north of I-40 from the eastern Texas panhandle into western Oklahoma, as a result, but we'll see. Anyway, the 12z MAF/Midland, TX sounding is very telling. The fact that we have a volatile, high-end severe environment already in place at 7 in the morning and this far west, should be alarming. The environment near MAF will advect northeast through the day with the greatest parameter space likely from the Caprock region and Northwest Texas into southwestern Oklahoma. Expand Agreed with your assessment 100%. I think we need to view these HRRR solutions cautiously, given the northward bias in the portrayal of current activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 On 5/20/2019 at 1:51 PM, mappy said: you realize its 60 and pouring rain in OKC right now, right? and they are under a high risk. Expand You realize an hour ago that meteorologists far more experienced than anyone in here extended that high risk to include them, correct? Look at literally every other portion of the high risk and there is zero meaningful deep convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 On 5/20/2019 at 1:52 PM, jpeters3 said: Nobody is complaining. Experienced professional meteorologists are providing objective analysis of the situation. Expand So you’ve got more experience than me. In a typical Plains setup i would agree that MCS in NW OK pretty much confines the front to I-40, maybe even S. But.. this is anomalous for the Plains. Would argue the LL flow keeps that boundary N of 40.. perhaps closer to 412. Your thoughts from experience? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 On 5/20/2019 at 1:55 PM, jojo762 said: You realize an hour ago that meteorologists far more experienced than anyone in here extended that high risk to include them, correct? Look at literally every other portion of the high risk and there is zero meaningful deep convection. Expand sounds like the only person complaining is you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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