Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

[olafminesaw]

[Araqiel]

Are things running a little faster than the HRRR suggests? Current radar looks more like the 12Z than the 10Z frame to me.

[WhiteoutWX]

All the CAMs that we’re showing linear/messier modes this afternoon in Oklahoma originated that mess down in SE New Mexico by now. No signs of that happening so far. I’d say early points go to the HRRR on convective evolution today at this juncture.

[KeganR]

New here...

 

But 09z HRRR run has a supercell going through downtown OKC area at 21z and then another at 01z.

This is not good.

[Eskimo Joe]

48 minutes ago, KeganR said:

New here...

 

But 09z HRRR run has a supercell going through downtown OKC area at 21z and then another at 01z.

This is not good.

Focusing on individual placement of cells on meso models will drive you crazy.

[bjc3395]

This is one of the few times the trend is going to a worst case scenario. 

[bdgwx]

The distribution of supercells with plainly evident BWERs on the HRRR is about as prolific as I can remember.

 

 

 

 

[KeganR]

13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Focusing on individual placement of cells on meso models will drive you crazy.

Absolutely... 

Not chasing. Just getting worried here in the 405.

[Southern stream]

Am I the only one that thinks this event needs it's own thread? But new to the site so maybe not. 

[lokee]

3pm 5/20

[jpeters3]

The next few hours are going to be very telling.  The bullish HRRR runs have most of the current MCS/precip in the TX panhandle going N into Kansas.  There is already a bit more southward development of the MCS there than what is shown in most HRRR solutions.  Conversely, the NAM NEST intensifies the current MCS and inundates most of OK with outflow, effectively killing the outbreak potential.  The NAM nest seems to aggressive with the MCS development at the current time, but we'll see...

[Brick Tamland]

Hope the models are wrong with this one. Looks very scary for TX and OK right now. Good luck to the chasers and everyone in the threat area. Stay safe. 

[MattPetrulli]

Godspeed Oklahoma. Type of setup to get a 45 introduced with parameters in place.

[lokee]

[jpeters3]

10 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Godspeed Oklahoma. Type of setup to get a 45 introduced with parameters in place.

Still far too much uncertainty with respect to the convective evolution for such a high % call.

[SnowlieSnowstormson]

They just expanded the 'high' shading area in the latest outlook.

[Disc]

High risk expanded to include the OKC metro area. The discussion with this new update is scary. 

A serious outbreak of destructive, tornadic supercells is likely
   over parts of this region this afternoon into evening, especially in
   the high- and moderate-risk areas.  Given the expected fast storm
   motions, especially mid-afternoon into evening, a few of the
   best-organized supercells may reach an equilibrium with their
   already very favorable mesoscale environments long enough to sustain
   wide, long-track tornadoes.

 

[MattPetrulli]

Just now, jpeters3 said:

Still far too much uncertainty with respect to the convective evolution for such a high % call.

Which is why I said parameters and not overall. Still think there are some failure modes, but its becoming more unlikely by the hour. 

[Calderon]

2 minutes ago, Disc said:

High risk expanded to include the OKC metro area. The discussion with this new update is scary. 

A serious outbreak of destructive, tornadic supercells is likely
   over parts of this region this afternoon into evening, especially in
   the high- and moderate-risk areas.  Given the expected fast storm
   motions, especially mid-afternoon into evening, a few of the
   best-organized supercells may reach an equilibrium with their
   already very favorable mesoscale environments long enough to sustain
   wide, long-track tornadoes.

 

Yeesh, some of the strongest wording I've seen since 4/27/2011. 

The ceiling is incredibly high for this event.

[jpeters3]

the HRRR solutions are to be taken with a grain of salt at this point.  They have consistently (stubbornly) tried to drag all the current panhandle convection quickly into S KS away from the high risk region.  Given what we know about bow echo evolutions, this is unlikely for the convection currently entering N OK.  Most likely, the current panhandle MCS will track through regions north of I-40 retarding the northward frontal progression.  Not sure how this will affect the outbreak potential later, other than to shift it south a tad from what the HRRR suggests.

[lokee]

12z HRRR

[Stormlover74]

8 minutes ago, Calderon said:

Yeesh, some of the strongest wording I've seen since 4/27/2011. 

The ceiling is incredibly high for this event.

On one hand we hope they're wrong but on the other it would be a huge bust for forecasters if it fails to produce

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

On one hand we hope they're wrong but on the other it would be a huge bust for forecasters if it fails to produce

This is the danger of going high risk before the midday update on day 1.  Really worried this busts now because everyone is expecting a big day and you'll look like a fool if this doesnt pan out.  Ironically this flooding threat in Oklahoma is just as big but it's getting almost no coverage.

[Santa Clause]

With parameters in place, high end severe and several tornadoes will happen, now it's just will they be easy to track or rain wrapped basically.

[KeganR]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

This is the danger of going high risk before the midday update on day 1.  Really worried this busts now because everyone is expecting a big day and you'll look like a fool if this doesnt pan out.  Ironically this flooding threat in Oklahoma is just as big but it's getting almost no coverage.

News stations here are talking about it equally as much as the tornado threat

[lokee]

[Calderon]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

This is the danger of going high risk before the midday update on day 1.  Really worried this busts now because everyone is expecting a big day and you'll look like a fool if this doesnt pan out.  Ironically this flooding threat in Oklahoma is just as big but it's getting almost no coverage.

Exactly, and because of this, I hope for their sake is does verify to soem capacity because the SPC has had some pretty good busts lately and I think folks may be disregarding them to a degree. 

[high risk]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

This is the danger of going high risk before the midday update on day 1.  Really worried this busts now because everyone is expecting a big day and you'll look like a fool if this doesnt pan out.  Ironically this flooding threat in Oklahoma is just as big but it's getting almost no coverage.

        excellent point.    If some of the non-HRRR solutions like the HiResWindow ARW2 are correct, the OKC area dodges a bullet on the violent tornadoes but ends up in (or very near to) the bullseye for catastrophic flooding.

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

On one hand we hope they're wrong but on the other it would be a huge bust for forecasters if it fails to produce

It’s rare I think that these events bust anymore.  If they do it usually is caused by two things.  The initiation occurs too early or things end up more linear than expected 

[DanLarsen34]

18 minutes ago, Disc said:

High risk expanded to include the OKC metro area. The discussion with this new update is scary. 

A serious outbreak of destructive, tornadic supercells is likely
   over parts of this region this afternoon into evening, especially in
   the high- and moderate-risk areas.  Given the expected fast storm
   motions, especially mid-afternoon into evening, a few of the
   best-organized supercells may reach an equilibrium with their
   already very favorable mesoscale environments long enough to sustain
   wide, long-track tornadoes.

 

This is the strongest wording I’ve seen from them. If you go back to the 4-27 outlooks, they understated the violent tornado threat by a bit that day given the parameters that were in place. Going to be a long day!