Santa Clause Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 These seemingly all fall apart this season the closer in they become. Today looks like maybe a few low end type tornadoes in W KS and plains of Nebraska. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 These seemingly all fall apart this season the closer in they become. Today looks like maybe a few low end type tornadoes in W KS and plains of Nebraska.It's not just this season it happens multiple times every year. A big difference with this particular system is we had fairly good agreement between models, analogs, etc and that stayed that way for several days. A lot of folks myself included took the bait. I am usually a 3 days out guy but the bait was just too good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said: It's not just this season it happens multiple times every year. A big difference with this particular system is we had fairly good agreement between models, analogs, etc and that stayed that way for several days. A lot of folks myself included took the bait. I am usually a 3 days out guy but the bait was just too good. Maybe one of these days will have that sneaky big day come together, but like you said, not looking that way with newer modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 25 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said: Monday still holds potential to be high end but the details won't be clear until late Sunday or early Monday morning IMO. I'll believe it when I see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 I'll believe it when I see itPretty much where I am. Convective overturning may be a problem as well as storm mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 12z HRRR 4pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 Man that low level jet is CRANKING through the whole day over Oklahoma on Monday. If discrete cells go up in that environment, look out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 17, 2019 Author Share Posted May 17, 2019 The 12z model suite is trending toward less convective overturning across Oklahoma tomorrow morning, allowing for the atmosphere to at least partially recover by peak heating Saturday. A consensus of model solutions bring a sub-1000mb low into northwestern Oklahoma between 21z SAT to 00z SUN. Ahead of a sharpening dryline, the SREF/NAM/HRRR all show mid to upper 60s dew-points recovering in central Oklahoma with dews around 70F in south-central Oklahoma by 00z. Models also show less veering of the low-level jet, suggesting that wind profiles will remain favorable for supercells, assuming that early day convection is not overly abundant, in order to disrupt the kinematic fields. If there is a silver lining in a relative lack of convection overnight (NW Texas/western Oklahoma), it is that it could bode well for a more robust severe threat across the risk area tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 Monday the SPC seems to favor a shot at re-development due to intense wind profiles. Very latest NAM wants to back off early initiation due to warmer 700 mb prog. That giveth and taketh. If a substantial short-wave ejects toward 00Z new storms could breach the cap. Dewpoints must stay at/above 68 I think or Monday is another dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 17, 2019 Author Share Posted May 17, 2019 To recap the next several days with some recent model data... Today: Severe storms are likely across the central High Plains, eastward across the central Plains this evening. A few other isolated storms can't be ruled out to the south, particularly over Southwest Texas. Tomorrow: Severe storms seem probable in at least two regimes. The first will be with an MCS that could rejuvenate later in the day from Northeast Texas into the Arkansas/Missouri vicinity, or evolve into a broken line of storms. The second area will be in the wake of the MCS, assuming there is adequate recovery, from Oklahoma into parts of Kansas. This is still somewhat conditional, but odds appear to be increasing a bit for at least isolated storm development near/just west of I-35. Sunday: Looks like a relatively quiet day as storm threats largely shift east of this sub-forum. For anyone out chasing, it may be a good day to relax and get ready for the coming week... Monday: Not quite sure what to make of this day, just yet, as confidence is somewhat low. There does remain at least the potential for a significant event, particularly across the Southern Plains vicinity. Even if isolated storms aren't dominant, there should be some severe weather. Tuesday: The severe threat will likely shift northeast toward the lower to mid-Missouri Valley. Wednesday into next weekend: The synoptic pattern should remain favorable for steady bouts of severe thunderstorm activity around the central U.S. General ridging across the Southeast is modeled with favorable upper level flow continuing to eject from the Four Corners region, eastward across the Plains. It's not clear if there will be a higher-end severe threat, but at the very least, multiple severe storm days are likely, possibly with no single day that goes quietly. The operational 00z Euro shows another seasonably strong surface low ejecting from Colorado into the central Plains around late-week, but that could change. It still looks like an at or above average stretch of severe thunderstorm activity across the Plains vicinity through the next 7-10 days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible over a large area Saturday, from Texas to southern Minnessota, with greatest threat across central to northeast Texas, Oklahoma toward the Arklatex and Arkansas where large hail, damaging wind and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... Upper trough now moving through the Great Basin region will continue east into the central and southern Plains Saturday and the mid MS Valley Saturday night. Early Saturday a cold front will extend from a surface low over southeast SD southwestward to a weaker surface low in northwest OK and this boundary will advance slowly southeast during the day. A dryline or pacific front will extend southward from this low through western TX. Warm front will stretch from the northern Plains low through the northern part of the OH Valley. ...Southern Plains through lower Mississippi Valley... Model consensus is that an MCS will be ongoing from west through northwest TX into a portion of central OK. This linear MCS will continue east through the destabilizing warm sector (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) where increasing winds aloft associated with an approaching mid-level jet will contribute to sufficient vertical shear for embedded organized storms including bowing segments and supercells. The MCS has the potential to overturn a large part of the warm sector the first half of the day, and this raises considerable uncertainty regarding extent of upstream destabilization and thunderstorm redevelopment. Nevertheless, steep mid-level lapse rates will spread eastward through this region, and there will be some time for recovery during the afternoon as low-mid 60s F dewpoints advect northward through the pre-frontal warm sector, contributing to moderate to strong instability with 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE possible. Assuming there is sufficient time for recovery, additional storms may develop along dryline across western OK through northwest TX and northward along the cold front in KS. Very strong effective bulk shear (45-55 kt) will support supercells capable of very large hail, and a few tornadoes would also be possible. Have maintained the sig area for north TX through central OK into KS, and once uncertainties regarding impact of early MCS and subsequent upstream destabilization have been mitigated, an upgrade to higher probabilities may be needed in day 1 updates. ...Central Plains through middle and upper Mississippi Valley... Thunderstorm are possible Saturday morning along the front extending from central KS into IA, and a few of these storms may be capable of hail. Additional surface-based thunderstorm activity is expected later in the day as forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough, diurnal destabilization and lift along the front all align to support convective initiation. Environment is supportive of strong, organized updrafts capable of large hail and strong wind gusts. Backed surface winds may also develop within the warm sector ahead of the front, contributing to some tornado risk with any discrete, warm-sector storms. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 10% - Enhanced Wind: 30% - Enhanced Hail: 30% SIG - Enhanced ..Dial.. 05/17/2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: New SPC Day 2 has extended the ENH risk NE to now include W AR/SE OK/ extreme SW MO Interesting how the sig contour is entirely separate from the ENH risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, cheese007 said: Interesting how the sig contour is entirely separate from the ENH risk Agree... sounds like everything will be turning on the MCS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 Just now, yoda said: Agree... sounds like everything will be turning on the MCS Feels like Lucy and the football tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 1 hour ago, yoda said: Agree... sounds like everything will be turning on the MCS Ehhh. More like airmass recovery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 Tornado watch issued for nw KS and central Nebraska with cells moving up from Kansas. I'm wondering if today's greatest threat might be a bit east/ne of where we were initially thinking per SPC current meso parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 Cell in NE Colorado probably needs a tornado warning, kind of in a radar gap area but nice couplet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 Storm is exploding east of Mullen NE as it moves closer to higher helicity values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 Storm by Panorama Point looks decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 one curious thing, looking from the Hastings radar. you have one storm just departing the 88d near Goodland, and one moving on top of the LNX/LBF radar near Thedford. both getting direct hits within minutes of each other. good thing they're engineered well. would hate to see the areas west of US go low-level radar blind from both radars at once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 TVS sig on the storm in NE Weld County in CO... nearly 80dbz pixels showing up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 OUN and TSA pretty serious about Monday. OUN AFD for Monday: Model guidance is consistent in showing a very concerning synoptic scale pattern Monday, featuring a powerful upper level jet and significant low level response. 850-mb flow is anomalously strong throughout the day and coincident with moderate to strong instability. Even with extensive warm advection convection early in the day, such a dramatic low-level response can result in rapid recovery and destabilization. The small scale details will determine how expansive and severe the threat is, but some of the more significant severe and tornado events have occurred with similar trough strength/geometry currently indicated in model guidance. Tulsa AFD for Monday... Focus quickly shifts to Monday where significant severe weather is possible including heavy rainfall. Warm front will likely begin to lift north during the day. By late Monday afternoon, moderate to high instability is expected to develop with strong/backed low level winds increasing across northeast Oklahoma as vigorous upper trough swings through New Mexico into the Texas panhandle. NAM forecast point soundings suggest the potential for scattered supercell development over northeast Oklahoma by late afternoon with the threat for a few strong tornadoes. Of course this is still a few days out, however persons still need to be prepared for the potential for significant severe weather Monday night afternoon/evening, especially if this involves outdoor activities 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 The lone cell in southern TX is now tornado warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 Confirmed Tornado with the aforementioned cell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 Cell NW of Atwood, KS starting to form a hook, weak couplet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 It's in a bad radar location but there's a decent couplet east of Crook CO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioWX Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 14 minutes ago, ICEHOCEY77 said: Cell NW of Atwood, KS starting to form a hook, weak couplet I don't think it'll be long before that cell drops a tornado. Edit: Tornado warned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 TOG, weak https://www.severestudios.com/storm-chasers/matt.salo.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 1 minute ago, ICEHOCEY77 said: TOG, weak https://www.severestudios.com/storm-chasers/matt.salo.html Also on TWC via tower cam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, ICEHOCEY77 said: TOG, weak https://www.severestudios.com/storm-chasers/matt.salo.html Starting to look a LOT more impressive now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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