Central PA Spring/Summer 2019

[Bubbler86]

15 hours ago, daxx said:

Yea the 12z euro doesn’t really show a nice cool down until late next week.

That Darn Dorian. 

[Itstrainingtime]

48 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

I'm ok with low to mid 80s yet, as long as nights stay in the 60s. However i will be expecting a fall-ish cool down September 3rd 

Same. I'll be celebrating birthday #54 on the 7th at Beaver Stadium and would like some football weather. For some reason it was decided that Buffalo was a marquee matchup and they moved kickoff to 7:30pm...

[daxx]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

That Darn Dorian. 

Good to see you back!   

[Bubbler86]

1 hour ago, daxx said:

Good to see you back!   

Thanks.  Glad you and most of the rest of the gang is still here.  I tend to not post so much during the winter.  Trying to keep up takes a lot of time.  

[canderson]

Couple REALLY nice late August days. Was 54 this morning. 

[Itstrainingtime]

6 hours ago, canderson said:

Couple REALLY nice late August days. Was 54 this morning. 

Looks like there will be just enough oomph to the front tomorrow that Saturday could be a pretty stellar day as well.

[canderson]

5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Looks like there will be just enough oomph to the front tomorrow that Saturday could be a pretty stellar day as well.

Yea, kinda a “what could have been” deal though when temps could’ve gone into the upper 60s lol

[Bubbler86]

Here I am watching Dorian model runs for all the vested Florida interests I have and suddenly there is a better than slight chance that THIS sub forum gets worse effects than Florida...an actual chance to talk about the slight possibility of a trough capturing Dorian and pulling it into the Chesapeake or a bit farther north.

 

 

[canderson]

6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Here I am watching Dorian model runs for all the vested Florida interests I have and suddenly there is a better than slight chance that THIS sub forum gets worse effects than Florida...an actual chance to talk about the slight possibility of a trof capturing Dorian and pulling it into the Chesapeake or a bit farther north.

 

 

Sister in-law lives in Fort Pierce. I’m curious if we end up with more rain and wind than her. 

We are in Rehoboth Beach later next week. Never been. Great timing! 

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, canderson said:

Sister in-law lives in Fort Pierce. I’m curious if we end up with more rain and wind than her. 

We are in Rehoboth Beach later next week. Never been. Great timing! 

I was in Florida for Matthew, about 40 miles inland, and we had nothing more than a few sprinkles.  An east coast grazer will cause damage right on the coast of Florida but is a non event for most of the peninsula.  Man, if the Euro is right there is a chance for more than rain here.  If Dorian starts meandering up the coast and maintains intensity it could be pulled in just like any other low in the winter.  Phase and Susq. Valley is getting a Hurricane.  Rehoboth Beach is no picnic either.  Today's models have really sent the alert out to the whole eastern seaboard up into Nova Scotia.

 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

15 minutes ago, canderson said:

Sister in-law lives in Fort Pierce. I’m curious if we end up with more rain and wind than her. 

We are in Rehoboth Beach later next week. Never been. Great timing! 

Went to OBX this summer instead of Rehoboth...first year in my life I haven't vacationed there. Great, compact place with a ton of great places to eat from fine dining to pizza joints. If you're staying downtown you can park your car upon arrival and let it sit until you go home. 

[Itstrainingtime]

27 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Here I am watching Dorian model runs for all the vested Florida interests I have and suddenly there is a better than slight chance that THIS sub forum gets worse effects than Florida...an actual chance to talk about the slight possibility of a trof capturing Dorian and pulling it into the Chesapeake or a bit farther north.

 

 

Seems that the slower forward motion is potentially allowing Dorian to get picked up by a trough and thus the significant move poleward.

Then again if it moves too much slower it might be a swing and a miss wide right....

[canderson]

24 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Went to OBX this summer instead of Rehoboth...first year in my life I haven't vacationed there. Great, compact place with a ton of great places to eat from fine dining to pizza joints. If you're staying downtown you can park your car upon arrival and let it sit until you go home. 

Some good friends rent a house with their family this week and next. Everyone but them leave the day after Labor Day so we are going Wednesday fur two nights to hang out. It’s in the first block of Philadelphia Street, a block from Dogfish Head which is why I’m going lol. 

They say it empties out and Wednesday on is very quiet. We are looking forward to it..

[MAG5035]

3 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

I was in Florida for Matthew, about 40 miles inland, and we had nothing more than a few sprinkles.  An east coast grazer will cause damage right on the coast of Florida but is a non event for most of the peninsula.  Man, if the Euro is right there is a chance for more than rain here.  If Dorian starts meandering up the coast and maintains intensity it could be pulled in just like any other low in the winter.  Phase and Susq. Valley is getting a Hurricane.  Rehoboth Beach is no picnic either.  Today's models have really sent the alert out to the whole eastern seaboard up into Nova Scotia.

 

 

While it's quite early in the game for pondering such things, I don't particularly think our region is going to see effects from Dorian save for maybe glancing the southern LSV portions of the subforum with some rain or something. Typically to bring one of these storms into our region you need downstream ridging/blocking in eastern Canada and the western Atlantic and I'm not quite seeing that on the models. Once the storm curves it's going to eventually be picked up and shot north/northeast after really slowing down on it's approach to Florida. So in terms of the rest of the SE coast and eastern seaboard/coastal plain up to New England, yea I would certainly be keeping an eye on the developments of it. But for our region at this point I think it's unlikely.

The 12z Euro is interesting that it keeps Dorian off the Florida Coast, perhaps even sparing the coast much hurricane strength impacts if it continues to be on the smaller side in terms of extent of hurricane force winds. It will be interesting to see how this evolves the next day or two. This will be a very strong hurricane on approach to Florida, likely a cat 4 and perhaps a high end one at that. If it in fact largely stays offshore of Florida then the SC/NC coast would be under the gun for a stronger potential impact. Although typically in these cases it would feature a weakened hurricane to some degree with influences from being picked up and waters that are warm but not quite as warm as it is in now. Def still major hurricane potential (Cat 3) but I think Florida would see the top strength of Dorian if it made landfall there (Cat 4 potentially).

[Bubbler86]

38 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

While it's quite early in the game for pondering such things, I don't particularly think our region is going to see effects from Dorian save for maybe glancing the southern LSV portions of the subforum with some rain or something. Typically to bring one of these storms into our region you need downstream ridging/blocking in eastern Canada and the western Atlantic and I'm not quite seeing that on the models. Once the storm curves it's going to eventually be picked up and shot north/northeast after really slowing down on it's approach to Florida. So in terms of the rest of the SE coast and eastern seaboard/coastal plain up to New England, yea I would certainly be keeping an eye on the developments of it. But for our region at this point I think it's unlikely.

The 12z Euro is interesting that it keeps Dorian off the Florida Coast, perhaps even sparing the coast much hurricane strength impacts if it continues to be on the smaller side in terms of extent of hurricane force winds. It will be interesting to see how this evolves the next day or two. This will be a very strong hurricane on approach to Florida, likely a cat 4 and perhaps a high end one at that. If it in fact largely stays offshore of Florida then the SC/NC coast would be under the gun for a stronger potential impact. Although typically in these cases it would feature a weakened hurricane to some degree with influences from being picked up and waters that are warm but not quite as warm as it is in now. Def still major hurricane potential (Cat 3) but I think Florida would see the top strength of Dorian if it made landfall there (Cat 4 potentially).

So your saying there's a chance?   :-)

 

[Voyager]

Looks like I'm going to be doing a 4 day, 3 night charter to OCMD this week from Tuesday to Friday. Wonder what it's going to be like down there late week. Latest GFS seems to bring him pretty close. 

[canderson]

29 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Looks like I'm going to be doing a 4 day, 3 night charter to OCMD this week from Tuesday to Friday. Wonder what it's going to be like down there late week. Latest GFS seems to bring him pretty close. 

You’re already back to PA?

[Voyager]

8 minutes ago, canderson said:

You’re already back to PA?

Yup...

It was only a temporary move, but I ended up returning faster than I expected. My mom is thinking of coming back east...

[canderson]

This system hat cane through at 6 am was highly impressive. Nonstop thunder, terrific light show, tropical-like rain rates. 

[daxx]

6 minutes ago, canderson said:

This system hat cane through at 6 am was highly impressive. Nonstop thunder, terrific light show, tropical-like rain rates. 

 

I only picked up 0.06" here.  Glad to see Harrisburg get some action.

[Voyager]

Keeping my eye on Dorian and the OCMD area where I'll be this week until Friday. Don't know what to expect, but it seems as if no matter what he does between The Bahamas and Florida, the end result is till the same downstream. A track perpendicular to the NC coast and out to sea. For once, just once in my life, I'd like to be in a good location for an anomalous weather event, but it just doesn't seem to be for me. So many tropical events get OCMD pretty good, but with me there, this one won't.

[canderson]

50 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Keeping my eye on Dorian and the OCMD area where I'll be this week until Friday. Don't know what to expect, but it seems as if no matter what he does between The Bahamas and Florida, the end result is till the same downstream. A track perpendicular to the NC coast and out to sea. For once, just once in my life, I'd like to be in a good location for an anomalous weather event, but it just doesn't seem to be for me. So many tropical events get OCMD pretty good, but with me there, this one won't.

Honestly most tropical storm systems are overrated. You get waves of varying intensity but not enough to be exciting, just annoying. 

Irene here was an exception but that was a different type of system really.m

Surge can be a problem but I know little about it and water scares me so that’s always a concern if you’re immediately on the water.

[Voyager]

4 minutes ago, canderson said:

Honestly most tropical storm systems are overrated. You get waves of varying intensity but not enough to be exciting, just annoying. 

Irene here was an exception but that was a different type of system really.m

Surge can be a problem but I know little about it and water scares me so that’s always a concern if you’re immediately on the water.

I'll be in a boardwalk motel, but not sure of surge with a NE track and winds from the north parallel to the beach. I guess I "shouldn't" hope for a closer in track, but I am a weenie, so...lol

[TheDreamTraveler]

That was some crazy thunder and lightning around 6 am. Thunder sounded way different than anything I've heard all year unless I'm just imagining things but it did wake me up. In my dreams it was thunderstorming since I was hearing it before I woke up lol

 

2 hours ago, canderson said:

Honestly most tropical storm systems are overrated. You get waves of varying intensity but not enough to be exciting, just annoying. 

Irene here was an exception but that was a different type of system really.m

Surge can be a problem but I know little about it and water scares me so that’s always a concern if you’re immediately on the water.

Oh yeah, I remember Irene pretty vividly. For it being right off the coast we still lost power here for a few hours late at night. Winds were pretty impressive imo.

I don't think we'll see much from Dorian except maybe one or two outer bands if it's close enough. If it hugs the coast then it could impact New England/Maine and Nova Scotia especially. But by that time it'd be transitioning to extratropical.

[canderson]

1 minute ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

That was some crazy thunder and lightning around 6 am. Thunder sounded way different than anything I've heard all year unless I'm just imagining things but it did wake me up. In my dreams it was thunderstorming since I was hearing it before I woke up lol

 

Oh yeah, I remember Irene pretty vividly. For it being right off the coast we still lost power here for a few hours late at night. Winds were pretty impressive imo.

I don't think we'll see much from Dorian except maybe one or two outer bands if it's close enough. If it hugs the coast then it could impact New England/Maine and Nova Scotia especially. But by that time it'd be transitioning to extratropical.

I had water coming through my doorknobs during Irene. It was worse than Sandy, far more severe wind.

[MAG5035]

3 hours ago, Voyager said:

I'll be in a boardwalk motel, but not sure of surge with a NE track and winds from the north parallel to the beach. I guess I "shouldn't" hope for a closer in track, but I am a weenie, so...lol

There will certainly be the usual issues of high surf/riptides/beach erosion and perhaps some minor coastal flooding as the hurricane eventually gets lifted up past that region. But the storm track vs the orientation of the coastline there probably would suggest not too many major issues. A track on the farther western envelope of guidance would likely involve Dorian passing thru mainland NC to get there, so you'd be talking a weaker system in that case. Although, the storm center passing very close would invite at least some storm surge potential (likely 2-4ft type stuff). Model guidance has generally been keeping if fairly far offshore from Ocean City, MD after getting very close to the Carolina's and perhaps impacting the Outer Banks region. So OCMD could get into some of the outer stuff, but the core of what's left of Dorian at that point looks to stay offshore. It will be also be moving much quicker at that stage of the game too as it's being picked up. That's my take on it currently, obviously there's still a lot of questions yet surrounding what this hurricane is going to do. Ocean City could also decide to be cautious and evacuate tourists out till the storm passes if it were to end up coming very close. 

This could also be interesting at the coastal New England/Nova Scotia level, 12z Euro looked to phase in some energy to a probable extratropical transitioning Dorian and make for a pretty significant impact on Nova Scotia.

 

[MAG5035]

35 minutes ago, canderson said:

I had water coming through my doorknobs during Irene. It was worse than Sandy, far more severe wind.

Sandy was definitely the windiest system here of any recent central PA major tropical system incursions, which back this way would involve Fran (96), Isabel (03), Frances (04), and Ivan (04). The flooding issues of the latter two are certainly well documented but they didn't have too much wind. Sandy of course was an extremely anomalous event all around. It was several hours of near constant wind, which we ended up losing a tree or two out of it. But just a couple miles away there was an area that pretty much a whole section of woods got laid out from the high winds. I probably still have the velocity image somewhere on my laptop of the 80-90kt velocities over the whole area. 

Edit, I found it:

[canderson]

10 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Sandy was definitely the windiest system here of any recent central PA major tropical system incursions, which back this way would involve Fran (96), Isabel (03), Frances (04), and Ivan (04). The flooding issues of the latter two are certainly well documented but they didn't have too much wind. Sandy of course was an extremely anomalous event all around. It was several hours of near constant wind, which we ended up losing a tree or two out of it. But just a couple miles away there was an area that pretty much a whole section of woods got laid out from the high winds. I probably still have the velocity image somewhere on my laptop of the 80-90kt velocities over the whole area. 

You know you are right on wind. I was confusing those in my head -though Irene did give my house more damage, 

[Voyager]

1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

There will certainly be the usual issues of high surf/riptides/beach erosion and perhaps some minor coastal flooding as the hurricane eventually gets lifted up past that region. But the storm track vs the orientation of the coastline there probably would suggest not too many major issues. A track on the farther western envelope of guidance would likely involve Dorian passing thru mainland NC to get there, so you'd be talking a weaker system in that case. Although, the storm center passing very close would invite at least some storm surge potential (likely 2-4ft type stuff). Model guidance has generally been keeping if fairly far offshore from Ocean City, MD after getting very close to the Carolina's and perhaps impacting the Outer Banks region. So OCMD could get into some of the outer stuff, but the core of what's left of Dorian at that point looks to stay offshore. It will be also be moving much quicker at that stage of the game too as it's being picked up. That's my take on it currently, obviously there's still a lot of questions yet surrounding what this hurricane is going to do. Ocean City could also decide to be cautious and evacuate tourists out till the storm passes if it were to end up coming very close. 

This could also be interesting at the coastal New England/Nova Scotia level, 12z Euro looked to phase in some energy to a probable extratropical transitioning Dorian and make for a pretty significant impact on Nova Scotia.

 

Thanks MAG! 

Next interest is the 21-23 timeframe when the wife and I do her birthday vacation in Cape May. The Atlantic basin has become quite active, so I'll be watching the tropics for the next few weeks.

[Itstrainingtime]

I look at the forecast for Thursday through Sunday and smile broadly...that is all.