Tallis Rockwell Posted May 4, 2019 Share Posted May 4, 2019 Large-scale pattern will become seasonally favorable for organized severe during the upcoming medium-range period. Severe thunderstorms, including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are expected across a substantial portion of the CONUS during the day4-6 time frame. Latest model guidance continues to suggest a pronounced upper trough will eject across the lower CO River Valley into the southern Rockies during the day4 period...central/southern Plains day5...and Midwest day6. Southern extent of dominant surface anticyclone should stall across KS and an extensive moist warm sector is expected to eventually materialize across the southern Plains/lower MS Valley into MO ahead of this ejecting short wave. While it seems likely that organized severe will spread from TX to the Midwest ahead of this feature, it's not entirely clear of the convective evolution each day. Day3 TX short wave will likely induce a substantial amount of precipitation that could/should disrupt northward advance of highest PW air mass to higher latitudes. Initially, most robust convection will be confined to the High Plains where steep lapse rates will contribute greatly to buoyancy. If the short wave timing is accurate, a more substantial severe event could unfold day5 across the Plains. GFS/Canadian are more aggressive with surface low development across KS than the ECMWF which is weaker with the surface low Wednesday. Mid-level speed max will eject into the Midwest Thursday along with an attendant severe threat . Seems like a repeat of 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted May 4, 2019 Share Posted May 4, 2019 I’m sure one of the days will end up having better potential than the others for severe but with multiple days of convection each day will likely depend on the previous and makes it hard to pick one from this range. Definitely looks like a lot of rain for Texas especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 5, 2019 Share Posted May 5, 2019 Wednesday (5/8) appears to have big-time potential per GFS. Several runs have suggested a high-end event could occur. Euro is relatively similar. 84hr NAM meanwhile shows a huge MCS across OK/KS at 12Z Wednesday... which could prove to be problematic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J_Prothro Posted May 5, 2019 Share Posted May 5, 2019 2 hours ago, jojo762 said: Wednesday (5/8) appears to have big-time potential per GFS. Several runs have suggested a high-end event could occur. Euro is relatively similar. 84hr NAM meanwhile shows a huge MCS across OK/KS at 12Z Wednesday... which could prove to be problematic. Ground is so saturated that an mcs could cause problems and flash floods... you saw what happened in Austin the other night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted May 5, 2019 Share Posted May 5, 2019 10 hours ago, jojo762 said: Wednesday (5/8) appears to have big-time potential per GFS. Several runs have suggested a high-end event could occur. Euro is relatively similar. 84hr NAM meanwhile shows a huge MCS across OK/KS at 12Z Wednesday... which could prove to be problematic. Looks like the Tuesday night/Wednesday morning crashing MCS idea seems to be gaining traction on the models. May wipe out or at least greatly reduce Wednesday's potential. 12z GFS shows the extensive overnight convection but has no impact on moisture fields which is highly suspect. I think the NAM may be more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 5, 2019 Share Posted May 5, 2019 Looks like the Tuesday night/Wednesday morning crashing MCS idea seems to be gaining traction on the models. May wipe out or at least greatly reduce Wednesday's potential. 12z GFS shows the extensive overnight convection but has no impact on moisture fields which is highly suspect. I think the NAM may be more realistic.Same crap, different year. I no longer look forward to spring the way I once did.Always the same mantras."EPS says Week 3 will be lit.""You don't need a synoptically evident outbreak to have a quality chase day."Yeah, yeah but we've gone like 5 going on 6 straight Mays without one in the Central US. The models tease but the atmosphere largely doesn't deliver except for the occasional storm-of-the-day event.Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 5, 2019 Share Posted May 5, 2019 Tuesday looks like the best day in the Plains. Monday suffers from slightly rising heights and warm 700 mb. Wednesday LLJ forecasts point to the Midwest and Ozarks. Midwest is of course doable but LOL Ozarks. Tuesday the LLJ points into the Plains triple point, and likely other intersecting boundaries after Monday. Also Tuesday winds upstairs are at adequate speeds and the correct direction. Appears moisture should be there, despite Texas activity. Helps the ground is already moist. Looking ahead, finally the week 3 hype has progressed into week 2. May 15/16 to 20/22 could be quite active. That's going right into peak climo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 5, 2019 Share Posted May 5, 2019 From a theromodynamic and moisture standpoint, Wednesday still looks good on the euro. Likewise, for those looking for a tornado outbreak, it looks pretty meh. As Jeff mentioned, LLJ will be displaced (and kinda weak) from the dryline/better instability. GFS still looks great, but it showing lingering convection in N TX having no effect on moisture quality is certainly questionable.... another setup bites the dust. Tuesday should be great for chasers though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J_Prothro Posted May 5, 2019 Share Posted May 5, 2019 4 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: Same crap, different year. I no longer look forward to spring the way I once did. Always the same mantras. "EPS says Week 3 will be lit." "You don't need a synoptically evident outbreak to have a quality chase day." Yeah, yeah but we've gone like 5 going on 6 straight Mays without one in the Central US. The models tease but the atmosphere largely doesn't deliver except for the occasional storm-of-the-day event. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk Curious why that is? Seems the border of Alabama/MS has become the new hotspot. Activity has tightened up in that small corridor. Perhaps it’s due to heating in the Gulf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted May 5, 2019 Share Posted May 5, 2019 See a bunch of tweets from chasers/Mets saying big few days but I only see slights for each day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 5, 2019 Share Posted May 5, 2019 Reed TimmerVerified account @ReedTimmerAccu 1m1 minute ago More Large dangerous, likely rain-wrapped tornado 8 miles southeast of Tahoka TX appears to be even retrograding a bit WNW with a cell merger in progress @breakingweather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted May 5, 2019 Share Posted May 5, 2019 Velocity scans are very impressive again after this storm cycled, this is going to yield incredible footage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 Another confirmed Tornado west of Sterling KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 Large wedge tornado confirmed on Twitter on that monstrous cyclic supercell near Gail, TX. Several tornado warned supercells from central KS into Texas. 13 tornadoes thus far reported for the day on SPC's reports page, probably several more brief tornadoes. Impressive "surprise" day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 Lots of warnings still out, this place is dead though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 13 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Lots of warnings still out, this place is dead though. Probably because it’s just a slight risk... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 Tornado Warning National Weather Service Wichita KS 744 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019 The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northeastern Reno County in south central Kansas... Southwestern Harvey County in south central Kansas... Southeastern Rice County in central Kansas... * Until 830 PM CDT. * At 741 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Nickerson, moving southeast at 25 mph. NWS meteorologists are also monitoring an area of rotation near South Hutchinson. Very strong wind gusts have also been reported with this storm that has a history of producing tornadoes. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Emergency Management confirmed tornado. Interesting text. These slow moving SE supercells are mint! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 10 minutes ago, MUWX said: Probably because it’s just a slight risk... Good point, usually mods or high is when it's hopping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 Video of the Tahoka Tornado from earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 My count is 7 (or 8?) preliminary tornado reports northwest of Wichita, with ongoing tornado warnings north and south of Wichita Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 Storm headed toward Wichita def has that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 Tor warning Wichita KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 The severe warned storm near the KS/OK border is showing '"> 4.0" inch hail at the moment. That's insane.Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 Probably worth noting that the 00z NAM has dramatically backed off the MCS on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Too bad it fails to matter much as low-level response during the afternoon and evening is mediocre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 D2 and D3 ENH w/ sig hatching for Tues/Wed. If I didn't have prior commitments, Tuesday would be a slam dunk chase as it looks like a pretty high quality TX Panhandle day. Wednesday is more up on the air in terms of how much the cold front sinks south, prior convective influences, and also the degree to which the shortwave deamplifies as it ejects during the day. If wave timing is off, low level winds may veer, muting the threat. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 Basing off of the outlook area and their discussion, SPC seems to be basing the majority of their forecast for Wednesday on the NAM solution. The NAM, as noted in a previous thread, was the best model by far for last Tuesday’s outbreak (4/30). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tallis Rockwell Posted May 6, 2019 Author Share Posted May 6, 2019 Enhanced with sig tor probs for day 2 Well-defined upper low off the southern CA coast is forecast to eject across the lower CO River basin into the southern Rockies by early evening Tuesday. Leading edge of large-scale forcing for ascent is expected to spread into the High Plains of NM/west TX shortly after peak heating. At the same time, a much weaker, but notable disturbance will eject across Mexico into deep south TX. This low-latitude feature should induce a coastal boundary and low-level warm advection will increase in response. It appears a substantial amount of convection will evolve across south TX into the middle/upper TX coastal region. This should temporarily slow northward advance of low-level moisture across east TX into eastern OK. Even so, adequate boundary-layer moisture should remain undisturbed across the southern High Plains where lower 60s surface dew points should hold east of a well-defined dry line, south of a synoptic front. While the synoptic front should contribute to convective development from the northern TX Panhandle to southeast KS, primary concern for organized severe will focus along the dryline near the TX/NM border. Strong surface heating is forecast by 18z across eastern NM where temperatures should easily soar into the 80s by early-mid afternoon. As a result, CINH should weaken by 21z and scattered supercells should easily develop within a strongly sheared environment. Forecast soundings for this region exhibit profiles that strongly favor supercells. Very large hail, in excess of 2", and tornadoes can be expected with this activity. Thunderstorm clusters should translate along/north of the synoptic front across the northern TX Panhandle into northwest OK/south-central KS during the overnight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 My prof canceled classes last Wednesday when DFW ended up under a severe storm watcb. Wonder what this Wednesday holds given its the last day of the semester to present? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J_Prothro Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 1 hour ago, cheese007 said: My prof canceled classes last Wednesday when DFW ended up under a severe storm watcb. Wonder what this Wednesday holds given its the last day of the semester to present? You going to chase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 56 minutes ago, J_Prothro said: You going to chase? God I wish. I drive a convertible so unless something comes to my apartment probably not. Miss having a beater car to play around with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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