NorthHillsWx Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 That strong wave that came off of Africa recently has been upgraded to 40% chance of development in 5 days. It has dry air in front of it and some hostile winds it will have to navigate but does have model support for development in the long range. The GFS, in particular, has been fairly consistent showing a moderately strong cane recurving off the SE coast in 10-11 days. I feel like this is one that may bide it's time until it gets into the vicinity of the lesser Antilles. Way far out but something to watch and probably signals the beginning of our cape verde tracking season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 Here is the shear I was referring to. It has a narrow finger of somewhat favorable winds but is not consolidated enough to take advantage before it enters that large area of 30-40kt shear. Should it travel slightly further south, however, it may spend more time in that finger of lighter winds, affording the opportunity for some consolidation of convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 Yeah it is on a classic track in the models but turns north sharply along the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 3 hours ago, shaggy said: Yeah it is on a classic track in the models but turns north sharply along the Bahamas. I'm hoping all storms turn away this year. My group was overwhelmed last year during/after the hurricanes. I want nothing to do with these storms again. But the 12z GFS still shows the storm. It still recurves, but we all know that can change if the high to the east is closer or stronger. Day 10: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 2 hours ago, FallsLake said: I'm hoping all storms turn away this year. My group was overwhelmed last year during/after the hurricanes. I want nothing to do with these storms again. But the 12z GFS still shows the storm. It still recurves, but we all know that can change if the high to the east is closer or stronger. The "Old" GFS has it too, albeit closer to the coast. I work for Duke Energy and am part of the storm response team so, trust me, I hope everything recurves this year! It's been a whirlwind for us last few years between Matthew, Nate, Irma, Florence, and Michael! I do enjoy tracking these storms, especially Cape Verde ones. I hope it's a busy season but only with fish storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 47 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: The "Old" GFS has it too, albeit closer to the coast. I work for Duke Energy and am part of the storm response team so, trust me, I hope everything recurves this year! It's been a whirlwind for us last few years between Matthew, Nate, Irma, Florence, and Michael! I do enjoy tracking these storms, especially Cape Verde ones. I hope it's a busy season but only with fish storms! I hear you. I work for NCDIT GIS (formally part of NCDOT). We're tasked with developing, gathering, and serving out transportation related datasets during emergency events. It was absolutely horrible last year. I think I went three weeks without a full day off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 Can anyone explain what’s happening in the gulf West of Florida? It seems like it’s rotating, but it’s probably just something else... let me look some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 18z gfs was a good bit closer to the coast than the 12z run. Still a recurve which is good. Of course it's super long range sooooo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: It’s an upper level low. Not expected to do anything in terms of tropical development. Thank you! That makes sense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 42 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Retired GFS was even closer. Looks like both runs had a stronger ridge and slowed the trough that eventually comes to kick whatever develops out to sea. We’re still so far out that the operational guidance has limited use. I’d strongly favor a recurve at this point but all options are on the table. Could it pull a Faux Joaquin at some point? Interesting days ahead assuming the TC in question gains a foothold. It's pretty early in the year for deep troughs so it seems Florida-bound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 1, 2019 Share Posted August 1, 2019 Meh I am suppose to be out of town that weekend so it will tease a hit so I have to stay home or come home early then curve OTS and miss..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted August 6, 2019 Share Posted August 6, 2019 Can someone tell me what is considered a tropical wave? Is the thing currently coming off the coast of Africa considered a tropical wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted August 6, 2019 Share Posted August 6, 2019 50 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: Can someone tell me what is considered a tropical wave? Is the thing currently coming off the coast of Africa considered a tropical wave? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 8, 2019 Author Share Posted August 8, 2019 NOAA increases chance for above-normal hurricane season The end of El Nino could boost Atlantic hurricane activity https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-increases-chance-for-above-normal-hurricane-season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 the Hi Res models have a interesting little swirl off the NC coast this weekend.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 11 hours ago, downeastnc said: the Hi Res models have a interesting little swirl off the NC coast this weekend.... Saw that on the NAM for a few runs now. We've many instances of tropical lows developing right on the coast within a dying frontal boundary almost out of nowhere, though few get beyond depression (or to depression) status. Will be an interesting feature for the outer banks Sun-Mon. Ruined my offshore fishing plans already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 17, 2019 Author Share Posted August 17, 2019 Seen this a few times already... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted August 17, 2019 Share Posted August 17, 2019 https://twitter.com/GregPostel/status/1162729138618347526?s=20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 17, 2019 Share Posted August 17, 2019 probably wont even make TD but I have seen these smaller systems cross the IBX/OBX and produce TS conditions......RGEM had NAM 3k have it over or just offshore and at the least waterspouts and weak tornados with heavy rain would be the concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 17, 2019 Share Posted August 17, 2019 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=custom&product=vis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 Man.. the tropics are really dead, and appear to be that way for the next 10 days at least according to models. Going to take a big finish to be above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 2 hours ago, wncsnow said: Man.. the tropics are really dead, and appear to be that way for the next 10 days at least according to models. Going to take a big finish to be above average. I hope it remains that way for the rest of the year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scwxguy Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 55 minutes ago, yotaman said: I hope it remains that way for the rest of the year. Me too. Been enough activity over the last few years. Years like this balance the bad ones. It is still early, but the quiet has been good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 1 hour ago, yotaman said: I hope it remains that way for the rest of the year. You never know....see Solak's post above from August 8th where NOAA increased chances for an above normal season. It could get wild in Oct/Nov given SSTs. The fuel is there. You just need the pattern to tap it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 I'm a little surprised the Low that went up the coast was not classified as of this morning. Seems to have, for a period, really gotten it's act together. This screams like one we will hear about in the post-season recap as at least a depression (looks like a storm to me). Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 21, 2019 Author Share Posted August 21, 2019 The NHC upgraded it to TS Chantal last night. 40mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 21, 2019 Author Share Posted August 21, 2019 Meanwhile - rinse and repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 Well the tropics certainly came alive in the last few days! Chantal, weakening depression, a home-grown TS looking likely off the SE coast, potential hurricane (99L) in MDR, and a successive wave train coming off the African coast. Get your popcorn ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 19 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: 98L with 50% 5 day development odds now. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Chantal, located several hundred miles southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland. 1. Satellite and surface observations show that a broad area of low pressure has formed just northwest of Andros Island in the central Bahamas. This system continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extend eastward over the western Atlantic for a few hundred miles. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the system moves near the coast of east-central Florida and then offshore of the southeast United States coast. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the central and northwest Bahamas, and the east-central and southeast Florida peninsula during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Forecaster Brown/Roberts Looks like it's up to 90% development odds over next 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted August 27, 2019 Share Posted August 27, 2019 Euro is starting to show Dorian as a stronger system and making it into the Gulf... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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