Solak Posted May 1, 2019 Share Posted May 1, 2019 And so it begins. National Hurricane CenterVerified account @NHC_Atlantic 11m11 minutes ago A trough of low pressure over the NW Bahamas has a low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone once it moves over the western Atlantic later this week. Locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the Bahamas and Florida during the next couple of days http://hurricanes.gov 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted May 1, 2019 Share Posted May 1, 2019 This is a little early for tropical weather. It's going to be a long summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 As long as it crushes any SER and keeps my yard from turning crispy this summer I will happily accept a few early storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 The first name storm has happened in April or May in 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 so we have a 4 year streak of a named storm before the official start date of the season to keep alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 58 minutes ago, downeastnc said: The first name storm has happened in April or May in 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 so we have a 4 year streak of a named storm before the official start date of the season to keep alive. Great! We’ve had craptastic winters most of those years! 19/20 winter is going to rock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 We have Andrea 000 ABNT20 KNHC 202149 TWOAT Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 550 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the low pressure system located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda has developed a well-defined center with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph. A special advisory will be issued on Subtropical Storm Andrea by 6:30 PM EDT or 2230 UTC. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky/Cangialosi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 On 5/1/2019 at 11:02 PM, downeastnc said: The first name storm has happened in April or May in 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 so we have a 4 year streak of a named storm before the official start date of the season to keep alive. Make it a 5 year streak, that has to be a record number of consecutive years with a named system before June 1...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 21, 2019 Author Share Posted May 21, 2019 1 hour ago, downeastnc said: Make it a 5 year streak, that has to be a record number of consecutive years with a named system before June 1...... I *think* I read where there was a similar streak from 1950 - 1954. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 I cant remember which year they started naming subtropical systems but I'd have to think that increases the chances of an early start to the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 For what it is worth: 12z GFS spawns Tropical Storm Barry off the Carolina coast next weekend (second run in a row) 12z FV3 is off its rocker with a 961mb hurricane in the Bay of Campeche 12z CMC was a goose egg (BUT no 100° temps) 12z EURO just started rolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted May 24, 2019 Share Posted May 24, 2019 Posting a notice in all regional forums -- 2019 hurricane (all named tropical storms) seasonal forecast contest open in tropical headquarters forum. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52312-2019-hurricane-all-named-tropical-storms-forecast-contest/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 6, 2019 Author Share Posted July 6, 2019 Here's something just a little bit different... National Hurricane CenterVerified account @NHC_Atlantic 29m29 minutes ago NHC is monitoring a system over the W Tennessee Valley that is forecast to move over the NE Gulf of Mexico in a few days, where a low pressure area could form. Some gradual development is then possible as it drifts west through midweek. Keep up to date at http://hurricanes.gov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 The Euro and Ukie both have something day 5 in the eastern gulf.The track is still in question but there could be some heavy rain especially on the eastern side of this crawling slowly north somewhere. Today's total on the Euro day 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 3km NAM is officially broke... 866mb hurricane at hr60 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2019071012/nam3km_mslp_wind_seus_60.png 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 The technology may still be somewhere in the future. Yet: if there was ever a storm system that should be part of modern experiments towards figuring out how to prevent a PTC from stabilizing or to induce weakening at key stages that would thus cause it to dissipate as much as possible, this is it. Again it is possibly still too early in history, and whichever the coalition of scientists and group efforts would be, they would not want to risk having the opposite effect with their methods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 4 hours ago, calm_days said: The technology may still be somewhere in the future. Yet: if there was ever a storm system that should be part of modern experiments towards figuring out how to prevent a PTC from stabilizing or to induce weakening at key stages that would thus cause it to dissipate as much as possible, this is it. Again it is possibly still too early in history, and whichever the coalition of scientists and group efforts would be, they would not want to risk having the opposite effect with their methods. Whether we like it or not hurricanes serve an extremely significant role in our planets climate. We should not screw with the balance that hurricanes help create. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 Latest update on Barry: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 Gauges are maxed out on the mississippi. A foot or more of rain along with a 3' storm surge, and possible tropical storm force winds slowing down the river outflow (even for a few hours) = disaster again for the French Quarter and various low spots around the city. Hope these people truly learned their lesson from Katrina and evac early. No excuses this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 1 hour ago, kvegas-wx said: Gauges are maxed out on the mississippi. A foot or more of rain along with a 3' storm surge, and possible tropical storm force winds slowing down the river outflow (even for a few hours) = disaster again for the French Quarter and various low spots around the city. Hope these people truly learned their lesson from Katrina and evac early. No excuses this time around. It is amazing how many days many areas have been at or above flood stage. Over one-hundred days in many areas. Is this the main Barry thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, BeauDodson said: It is amazing how many days many areas have been at or above flood stage. Over one-hundred days in many areas. Is this the main Barry thread? Hasnt been created in our forum yet. May be one in the LA, TX and west forum. Probably not much for us to track here other than a general discussion. If Barry decides to shift towards the apps and spin for a while it will get much more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 1 hour ago, kvegas-wx said: Hasnt been created in our forum yet. May be one in the LA, TX and west forum. Probably not much for us to track here other than a general discussion. If Barry decides to shift towards the apps and spin for a while it will get much more interesting. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 21, 2019 Author Share Posted July 21, 2019 5 day outlook - 20% chance 1. A tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles east of the Central Bahamas is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Some slight development is possible over the next few days while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 94L isnt looking horrible this afternoon, still with the big front ( for July anyways ) coming there is little threat of anything too major happening, if it somehow made it far enough north or even inshore over SC/MC it could bump rainfall totals quite a bit though..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 4 hours ago, downeastnc said: 94L isnt looking horrible this afternoon, still with the big front ( for July anyways ) coming there is little threat of anything too major happening, if it somehow made it far enough north or even inshore over SC/MC it could bump rainfall totals quite a bit though..... 3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’ll tell you what, it’s looking pretty solid right now. Up to 60 percent odds now. Now TD 3. but not forecasted to become a TS. 000 WTNT43 KNHC 222032 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032019 500 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Deep convection has increased in association with the small low pressure area we have been monitoring near the Bahamas. Animation of visible satellite images and scatterometer data indicate that a closed low-level circulation formed today, and therefore advisories are being initiated on the system. Conventional surface observations along with the scatterometer measurements indicate that the maximum sustained winds in the cyclone are near 25 kt. The system is in a marginally favorable environment for strengthening, as a special 1800 UTC sounding taken by the National Weather Service Forecast Office here in Miami showed a layer of dry air near the 700 mb level. The global models do not intensify the system, and only a slight increase in strength appears likely. In 36 to 48 hours, the models indicate that this system will be absorbed by a frontal trough near the U.S. east coast. The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 305/11 kt. Over the next day or so, the tropical cyclone should move around the western periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge, with the center of the depression expected to remain offshore of the Florida east coast and the southeastern United States until dissipation. The official track forecast follows a small consensus of the only models that were able to follow the center of the depression in the predicted fields. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 25.6N 78.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 27.2N 79.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 30.1N 79.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 33.7N 77.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 23, 2019 Author Share Posted July 23, 2019 Recon is checking it out this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted July 23, 2019 Share Posted July 23, 2019 16 minutes ago, Solak said: Recon is checking it out this morning. Go look at the 5 day... Ghost of Barry is looking to reform in the Gulf at 20% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 28, 2019 Author Share Posted July 28, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 2 hours ago, Solak said: Without limiting factors this could be Katrina in 8 days given the SSTs right now. So the focus should be on what prevents development vs whether or not there will be development. This is going to be an interesting next 90 days in the tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 Katrina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 59 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Katrina? Lol. Making the analogy only to point out that any system that develops in this region, and in the absence of limiting factors, has an undisturbed massive heat source available with these record SSTs. A named storm could go thru an RI cycle across the gulfstream and go from TD to Cat 4 or 5 in just a couple of days. Not unprecedented when conditions are pristine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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