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21 hours ago, WesterlyWx said:

WOW, I know it hasn’t been the warmest spring but it hasn’t been downright cold. That’s incredible to still have any kind of snow on the ground for this long. That’s gotta be some kind of record for them. 

I'm quite suspicious there is more going on with that post than they lead on.  There is no way snow lasted that long without some sort of assistance (piling or shading it purposely, perhaps even using a solar blanket to reflect back the sun).  If the snow had a very thick covering of debris I could see it being insulated and possibly lasting this long, but that is raw pure white snow, something smells awfully fishy to me.  

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8 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I'm quite suspicious there is more going on with that post than they lead on.  There is no way snow lasted that long without some sort of assistance (piling or shading it purposely, perhaps even using a solar blanket to reflect back the sun).  If the snow had a very thick covering of debris I could see it being insulated and possibly lasting this long, but that is raw pure white snow, something smells awfully fishy to me.  

FWIW i have a picture of snow still on the ground in shaded spots at the bottom of the Niagara gorge from May 20th. With how much snow they probably had as a base plus altitude I could see them still having snow in protected spots.

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4 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

I'm quite suspicious there is more going on with that post than they lead on.  There is no way snow lasted that long without some sort of assistance (piling or shading it purposely, perhaps even using a solar blanket to reflect back the sun).  If the snow had a very thick covering of debris I could see it being insulated and possibly lasting this long, but that is raw pure white snow, something smells awfully fishy to me.  

I've seen quite a bit of snow on holiday in early June before. Never in July though. It's definitely believable with the "spring" we had. 

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23 hours ago, Luke_Mages said:

FWIW i have a picture of snow still on the ground in shaded spots at the bottom of the Niagara gorge from May 20th. With how much snow they probably had as a base plus altitude I could see them still having snow in protected spots.

40 days is huge difference in time.  I wouldnt be shocked at all to see snow in May and Early June.  But July, I just don't buy it.  

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20 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I've seen quite a bit of snow on holiday in early June before. Never in July though. It's definitely believable with the "spring" we had. 

I agree this spring felt crappy but June was only .6 degrees below normal.  Warm nights really brought up our average even though daytime highs were a bit cooler.

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First 90° day yesterday for kfzy, sitting at 81° currently with dews in the lower 70s...

HWO

Heat index values will again climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s
today. If you are planning to be outdoors, be sure to stay hydrated
and take frequent breaks in the shade or inside if possible.

In addition, there will also be a risk for slow moving thunderstorms
that could produce locally heavy rainfall today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There will again be a risk for slow moving thunderstorms and locally
heavy rainfall on Saturday.

 

We could use a little bit of rain..

 

qpf_acc.us_ne (16).png

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7 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

First 90° day yesterday for kfzy, sitting at 81° currently with dews in the lower 70s...

HWO


Heat index values will again climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s
today. If you are planning to be outdoors, be sure to stay hydrated
and take frequent breaks in the shade or inside if possible.

In addition, there will also be a risk for slow moving thunderstorms
that could produce locally heavy rainfall today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There will again be a risk for slow moving thunderstorms and locally
heavy rainfall on Saturday.

 

We could use a little bit of rain..

 

qpf_acc.us_ne (16).png

This run is insane, look at all that ran in blotches across the NE. Summertime storms are the best model runs, a side from LES events. ;) 

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Hopefully that excessive heat doesn't make it up here lol

Very warm temperatures are expected this period, though a tropical
system, presently along the northern Gulf of Mexico as Tropical
Storm Barry will send moisture northward and across our region by
midweek. This system may result in more cloud cover (and lower
afternoon highs) while also increasing the surface dewpoints (heat
indices may climb well into the 90s).

Tuesday a weak warm front will push across the region, bringing much
warmer and humid air across the region. A stray shower or
thunderstorm is possible along this boundary. This warm front may
bring a few showers Tuesday night to the North Country, with areas
south of Lake Ontario mainly dry and muggy.

Wednesday and Thursday a wealth of tropical moisture around the
Great Lakes region may fuel a few mainly afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. Models are hinting at a weak cold front dropping
southward from Canada by midweek...that will not only hold back on
the heat, but also increase chances for storminess. As 850 hPa
temperatures near +18 to +20C, surface high temperatures Tuesday and
Wednesday may near 90F across the Lake Plain, and slightly cooler
inland. If this cold front to the north does push down across
northern New York Wednesday and Thursday, then temperatures east of
Lake Ontario will likely remain in the lower to mid 80s, a bit
cooler than what we have in the forecast now.
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HWO

 

The tropical remnants of Barry will cross our region Wednesday and
Wednesday night. This will lead to some showers and thunderstorms
that will likely contain torrential downpours.

Thursday through Saturday will then be oppressively warm and humid
with apparent temperatures (heat index values) forecast to climb to
between 95 and 100. At these levels...a heat advisory would be
required. The peak of this heat should be on Friday.

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019071400_168_479_220.png

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Pretty interesting read on the HWO for Buffalo area. 100-105 is pretty serious stuff around these parts. 
 
The tropical remnants of Barry will cross our region Wednesday and
Wednesday night. This will lead to showers and thunderstorms that
will likely contain torrential downpours and locally heavy rain.
This will elevate the threat for localized flooding.

Thursday through Saturday will then be oppressively warm and humid.
While apparent temperatures (heat index values) are forecast to
climb to around 95 on Thursday and Saturday...they are expected to
peak on Friday with readings as high as 100 to 105. At the very
least...this would prompt the issuance of heat advisories. It is not
out of the question that Excessive Heat Warnings may be needed.
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On 7/14/2019 at 7:02 AM, wolfie09 said:

HWO

 


The tropical remnants of Barry will cross our region Wednesday and
Wednesday night. This will lead to some showers and thunderstorms
that will likely contain torrential downpours.

Thursday through Saturday will then be oppressively warm and humid
with apparent temperatures (heat index values) forecast to climb to
between 95 and 100. At these levels...a heat advisory would be
required. The peak of this heat should be on Friday.

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019071400_168_479_220.png

Lollies around the 3 cities...lol

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KBUF AFD:

While the vast majority of this period will be rain free...there
will be the opportunity for some showers and thunderstorms. The bulk
of any convection will come at the hands of a weak boundary that
will sag into the region Friday night. Will continue to use chc pops
for this particular period... but with ANOTHER potential problem
looming over the region. The longwave pattern outlined above is
textbook for tongues of steep mid level lapse rates (EML`s) to work
from the Plains and Upper Great Lakes into our region. Several
guidance packages depict 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8.5 deg
c/km in the vcnty of the aforementioned weak frontal boundary...so
there will be the risk for strong to severe convection. In fact...in
a study done by Ekster and Banacos...it was found that on severe
weather days when an EML was present...over 80 percent of those days
contained numerous high end severe weather reports.
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Flash flooding"potential" Tuesday night through Wednesday..

.Potential for Flash Flooding late Tuesday night and Wednesday...

Tuesday night will be the first of many warm muggy nights. A
southwesterly mid-level flow will begin to advect the remnant
tropical moisture from Barry which will eventually increase PWAT
values up to 2.25 inches. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday evening will increase in coverage late in the night with the
arrival of a 30kt LLJ. While this flow will provide some storm
motion, PWAT values will be at the outer fringes of our
climatological extremes. The warm airmass will also support
efficient warm-rain processes. This can produce heavy rainfall rates
with the most vulnerable locations being across the Southern Tier
due to terrain, and urban areas. Model QPF is variable, and there is
not enough forecast confidence to pin down a location for a Flood
Watch yet, but this may be considered by later shifts.
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5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Flash flooding"potential" Tuesday night through Wednesday..


.Potential for Flash Flooding late Tuesday night and Wednesday...

Tuesday night will be the first of many warm muggy nights. A
southwesterly mid-level flow will begin to advect the remnant
tropical moisture from Barry which will eventually increase PWAT
values up to 2.25 inches. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday evening will increase in coverage late in the night with the
arrival of a 30kt LLJ. While this flow will provide some storm
motion, PWAT values will be at the outer fringes of our
climatological extremes. The warm airmass will also support
efficient warm-rain processes. This can produce heavy rainfall rates
with the most vulnerable locations being across the Southern Tier
due to terrain, and urban areas. Model QPF is variable, and there is
not enough forecast confidence to pin down a location for a Flood
Watch yet, but this may be considered by later shifts.

Anyone ever seen higher than 2.25 PWATs for this area?

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