Upstate/Eastern New York

[BuffaloWeather]

59 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

If you have some cardio in your workout routine you'll be fine. I think you've mentioned before here that you lift, I lift and do minimal (20 mins x 4 weekly) cardio and I was fine with the air in Bogata. 

I was fine in Hawaii on Mount Kea at 13,700 feet, but I definitely felt it up there and was hard to walk without feeling it. Cusco the city is 11,150 feet and rainbow mountain is over 17k feet. That would be by far the highest I've ever been. 

[Buckeyes_Suck]

Where did this rain come from? I'm on my motorcycle today 

[wolfie09]

First fall foliage report of the season..

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Looks like a beautiful week coming up. Weds-Sun look like near 80 each day and sunny. 

[Thinksnow18]

Enjoy! Because I like the look of the 3-4 week outlook!!! 

[Buckeyes_Suck]

1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Enjoy! Because I like the look of the 3-4 week outlook!!! 

cold right?

[BuffaloWeather]

2 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Enjoy! Because I like the look of the 3-4 week outlook!!! 

I wish the 3-4 outlook can be reliable. 2 weeks is about max we can predict for temperature. Oct 2nd ENS. 

 

[wolfie09]

CPC banking more on the emcwf/cfs..

Most of our model guidance predicts a time-mean amplified pattern over North America during the Week 3-4 period. Both the CFS and the ECMWF forecast an anomalous trough just south of the Aleutians, but the trough is about 100m deeper in the CFS (-120m vs -20m). The rest of the Rossby wave over North America is of similar amplitude between the models, although the ECMWF positions the wave slightly further north than the CFS. As one might expect from the height pattern, the CFS predicts colder temperatures over Alaska than the ECMWF does. Both models predict anomalous warmth over the western CONUS and near to below normal temperatures in the eastern CONUS, but the CFS positions the most anomalous cold air over the Southeast whereas the ECMWF positions it over the Great Lakes region.

In-line with our calibrated model guidance along with our statistical MLR tool, our forecast favors above normal temperatures for most of the western and southern parts of the country and below normal temperatures throughout the mid-west and northern New England. Our forecast probabilities of above normal temperatures over Alaska are around 60%.
 

[wolfie09]

Hurricane formation and potential track are difficult to predict 3-4 weeks in advance. Atlantic and eastern Pacific hurricanes can directly influence weather over the forecast area and any hurricane can indirectly influence the forecast area by re-curving poleward and perturbing the mid-latitude wave guide.

[vortmax]

On 9/16/2019 at 1:45 PM, wolfie09 said:

Hurricane formation and potential track are difficult to predict 3-4 weeks in advance. Atlantic and eastern Pacific hurricanes can directly influence weather over the forecast area and any hurricane can indirectly influence the forecast area by re-curving poleward and perturbing the mid-latitude wave guide.

This is interesting...

[cny rider]

What a glorious fall day.

I was fortunate to have the day off.  Chilly foggy start in the 40's but deep blue skies and sun since then.  We made it just to 70F, with no humidity.

This is the sweetest part of the year in upstate NY.  Other than when its snowing of course.

 

[Flying MXZ]

31.7° this morning.  But I gotta admit, I'm looking forward to the warm weekend.

[cny rider]

3 hours ago, Flying MXZ said:

31.7° this morning.  But I gotta admit, I'm looking forward to the warm weekend.

Interesting.

Our house was at 40F when i left for work in the dark at 0640.  But we are on a wooded hill and we don't radiate.

I was riding my bicycle and felt my hands get quite cold once I was down in the valley.

Multiple people reported 34F on their car thermometers on their way in but I don't think we hit freezing up here.

 

[BuffaloWeather]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Taking a detour from my usual tropical posting this time of year to say I’m real excited to chase LES up there again. Hoping for a fantastic season  

Everything looks good early on. No real signs of anything terribly bad. IE (Strong Nino/Nina) Weak El Nino/La Nina to neutrel yields the best years for us in Upstate. 

You had 3 feet in Lake effect the event you chased last year in Watertown? Was that the highest event you chased? 

[Buckeyes_Suck]

This will be my fourth winter at my house in clarence after moving from williamsville. I'm hoping to finally get something epic, I think the highest I've seen has been 16" with no drifting. 

[wolfie09]

[BuffaloWeather]

Going to be a hot Bills game Sunday.

[Thinksnow18]

2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Going to be a hot Bills game Sunday.

There is always one in late September it seems! It was either last year or the year prior it hit 90 at New Era.

[WNash]

I live on a street lined with mature, healthy maples (mostly sycamore and Norway), and every one of them has had at least some color for about a week.

 

 

[WNash]

GFS has kept all of WNY above normal temps and very little precipitation all the way through Oct 4. End of September/ beginning of October shows downsloping sending the Niagara Frontier well into the 80s. Lake Erie is running +2 above average but by October 4 may be at a record temp for the date, so this year may be another data point to test the claim that a warm autumn results in more lake snow.

[BuffaloWeather]

5 hours ago, WNash said:

GFS has kept all of WNY above normal temps and very little precipitation all the way through Oct 4. End of September/ beginning of October shows downsloping sending the Niagara Frontier well into the 80s. Lake Erie is running +2 above average but by October 4 may be at a record temp for the date, so this year may be another data point to test the claim that a warm autumn results in more lake snow.

Hard to believe the average first snowflake is a month away with temps in the mid 80s. I swam in my pool today and it wasn't even chilly.

[BuffaloWeather]

Rising and increasingly vicious personal attacks on Greta Thunberg who has played a pivotal role in building a global youth movement aimed at persuading policy makers to address climate change are contemptible. They also offer fresh indications that science is advancing and those who seek to align public policy with science are making progress. The increasingly unhinged responses of the climate change denial crowd reveal that they are out of anything resembling climate, meteorological, or other scientific ammunition, as their discredited cause is anti-science at its core.

That Ms. Thunberg is now being loosely associated with the Nazis via a conspiracy theory of her being placed in her position via the Left (even as Nazism was on the Far Right) is particularly reprehensible. Yet, it's happening.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1175948680253362178

Whether this will prove the low water mark so to speak remains to be seen. After all, the climate change denier movement is frightened with its loss of ability to influence, terrified of a move away from the status quo, naked before science, and desperate for relevance. For now, it has moved into the dark shadows of conspiracy theories (almost certainly the environment in which the remnants of that movement will persist after society has moved on) and it seeks the personal destruction of those who stand for science. Historic experience is not on its side.

[BuffaloWeather]

Just another reason to dislike joe b. I know some on here applaud him for being accurate when he’s one of if not the worst professional meteorologist in the field. 

[Thinksnow18]

12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Just another reason to dislike joe b. I know some on here applaud him for being accurate when he’s one of if not the worst professional meteorologist in the field. 

Funny I've never believed much of what Joe has said. He s a hype machine for his own agenda. His forecasts are all similar for nearly each upcoming winter with severe cold outbreaks, well above average snowfalls and several winter storms. His word is as solid as a bridge made of cream cheese. 

[BuffaloWeather]

I used to be a climate change denier as well, but not to this extent. The reason being is the dataset was just too small. But after researching more it's literally undeniable. Yes the planet is constantly cooling and warming, but the rate at which it is happening due to human influences is just mind boggling. Millions of years of warming has been accomplished in just 100 years. It's a simple equation; CO2 increases temperature, humans are increasing the rate of CO2 at an alarming rate. Continuous warming is inevitable. 

[WNash]

Joe, like a lot of public figures, has decided to be a publicity hound and hustler, rather than a scientist.

I get that the reality of climate change is an extremely difficult thing to confront. Some people have made a lot of money off of hydrocarbon fuels, and that money has bought them a lot of power. Unfortunately, the negative externalities of their line of business affect a lot of people who have a lot less money and a lot less power, but who are told that they should be more scared of technological changes than climate change. If technological change is done right, the costs will be borne by the people who have made the most money -- and that isn't the "west" but the wealth hoarders who would sacrifice the lives and well-being of lesser people as long as they can continue to profit.

I'm a middle aged, middle class guy, but I have a daughter who is two years old. I'll gladly make sacrifices now if it ensures that my daughter will live her life in a world with a climate that somewhat resembles the one in which my parents grew up and where I grew up. Thinking in a time frame longer than my own life has changed my outlook 180 degrees.

[Buckeyes_Suck]

My issue is with all of the alarmists. If someone has to go to an extreme to get my attention, (IE Miami will be gone in a few years,) you're probably full of shit and you're doing nothing to help your cause. Thunberg's rise to fame is just another form of sensationalism to me. On the other hand I cringe just as badly when I hear non-believers of climate change. However I'm not constantly exposed to that as an overreaching sales pitch, the worst of which I probably hear from time to time from Trump. (IE recently denounced the emissions tech in new cars)

16 years ago in college it wasn't as bad as it is now but still bad. So I wrote a paper on climate change and I ultimately landed on a few main points that I still believe after all this time.

Humans are contributing to climate change.

Slowing down is possible but not reversal.

All of the money being spent on subsidizing green energy would better be spent on preparing for higher water levels and temperatures(seawalls, cooling, relocation).

In 100 years we will have figured out fusion. In the mean time build more nuclear.

 

The one thing I now believe that i didn't 16 years ago is that electric cars will become the dominate mode within the next 10 years. Not because people want to be green but because they simply out perform their gasoline counterparts. That's the same way all of this will pan out as long as capitalism does what is does. Eventually fossil fuels will simply be too expensive, the market will be what ultimately makes everyone more "green."

[BuffaloWeather]

26 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

My issue is with all of the alarmists. If someone has to go to an extreme to get my attention, (IE Miami will be gone in a few years,) you're probably full of shit and you're doing nothing to help your cause. Thunberg's rise to fame is just another form of sensationalism to me. On the other hand I cringe just as badly when I hear non-believers of climate change. However I'm not constantly exposed to that as an overreaching sales pitch, the worst of which I probably hear from time to time from Trump. (IE recently denounced the emissions tech in new cars)

16 years ago in college it wasn't as bad as it is now but still bad. So I wrote a paper on climate change and I ultimately landed on a few main points that I still believe after all this time.

Humans are contributing to climate change.

Slowing down is possible but not reversal.

All of the money being spent on subsidizing green energy would better be spent on preparing for higher water levels and temperatures(seawalls, cooling, relocation).

In 100 years we will have figured out fusion. In the mean time build more nuclear.

 

The one thing I now believe that i didn't 16 years ago is that electric cars will become the dominate mode within the next 10 years. Not because people want to be green but because they simply out perform their gasoline counterparts. That's the same way all of this will pan out as long as capitalism does what is does. Eventually fossil fuels will simply be too expensive, the market will be what ultimately makes everyone more "green."

I think the problem with all of it is who the public figures are in the climate change activism world. Al Gore, Bill Nye, Leonardo Dicaprio, this 16 year old girl. We need an expert with a PHD in climate science who is world renowned to be the activist. Al Gore made millions off of climate change with his books with no scientific background. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Looks like Low 50s for highs and 30s for lows above 4k feet this week in the Dacks. Maybe a few flakes this weekend are possible, but warmer than was forecasted last week. Sunday morning looks cold even at lower elevations.

[BuffaloWeather]

That's a change within range. If GFS is correct that would bring first flakes to higher elevations next Friday.