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Upstate/Eastern New York


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43 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Screenshot_20190823-120623.png

Can I tell you that for about the last 4 year's that outlook has shown just about wall to wall AN temps every 3 months...its very warm biased...on the other hand the one the Weather Channel uses, an IBM co. (That makes me laugh a bit) has a very different outlook and shows BN temps in the same time frame...pick up dart and throw against the wall...

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So we have actually been BN for the year so far...wow spring really hampered the anomalies...the bigger question is how was there such a difference in temps just counties apart...for example Orleans and parts of eastern Niagara and western Monroe were 4 degrees colder on average than say eastern Allegheny County...the other area I question is the stripe of 0 to +1 that basically cuts upstate NY in half where otherwise from North of the southern tier the whole area would be uniform in BN temps.

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I was just going to comment that the sensible weather is going to be very active/interesting in the next 2 week's or so. First I have noticed the CPC did an about face in the 8 to 14 and has our area in the BN category which lines up with most extended models I've perused. Second is what's happening in the Caribbean with Dorian, damn good chance thuscstorm is cat 3 or better by labor day...and the third is Cohen has stated (and he's not the only one) that the initial PV is coming in very weak and kinda goes to what we have jokingly read from the farmers almanac about a polar coaster winter...but in the VERY early stages signs are pointing to a -NAO for the first time in years coupled with a weak La Nina and an EPO about to enter negative phase. I have the feeling the next few weeks heading into fall will bring about a lot of chatter to the upcoming winter

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16 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I was just going to comment that the sensible weather is going to be very active/interesting in the next 2 week's or so. First I have noticed the CPC did an about face in the 8 to 14 and has our area in the BN category which lines up with most extended models I've perused. Second is what's happening in the Caribbean with Dorian, damn good chance thuscstorm is cat 3 or better by labor day...and the third is Cohen has stated (and he's not the only one) that the initial PV is coming in very weak and kinda goes to what we have jokingly read from the farmers almanac about a polar coaster winter...but in the VERY early stages signs are pointing to a -NAO for the first time in years coupled with a weak La Nina and an EPO about to enter negative phase. I have the feeling the next few weeks heading into fall will bring about a lot of chatter to the upcoming winter

Cold early is never a good sign for a colder/snowier winter. I would always want a warmer fall. Climo says we cannot get sig snow to at least mid/late October at the earliest.

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A little bit of lake effect/enhanced showers as well as thick cloud cover..

 Colder air aloft will
continue to advect into the region with some minimal lake response
expected east of the lakes as lake/850 mb delta ts near around 14C.
Seeing isolated showers mainly over far eastern Lake Ontario and
streaming into southern Jefferson, northern Oswego and Lewis
counties due to lift from shortwave and lake response.

IMG_20190829_103933.thumb.jpg.2911dbdc99b57fcd5b7b67340d25c9d9 (1).jpg

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18 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

A little bit of lake effect/enhanced showers as well as thick cloud cover..


 Colder air aloft will
continue to advect into the region with some minimal lake response
expected east of the lakes as lake/850 mb delta ts near around 14C.
Seeing isolated showers mainly over far eastern Lake Ontario and
streaming into southern Jefferson, northern Oswego and Lewis
counties due to lift from shortwave and lake response.

IMG_20190829_103933.thumb.jpg.2911dbdc99b57fcd5b7b67340d25c9d9 (1).jpg

Can't wait for waterspout season. 

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10 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Follow this group on Facebook! Pretty cool they put out a daily forecast map and have a whole network of spotters along the shores of Ontario, Erie and Huron. Nice double waterspout picture in front of the sunrise over Lake Erie this morning.

fb4abb041ce3247290b4e8f60ed48d7c.jpg
ceeb82d52e9a3ed8e2970afa949064c8.jpg

 

 

 

 


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This is amazing thank you! 

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