DeltaT13 Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 21 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: Yeah, finally got some light rain this morning. I'll see what the rain gauge has in it when I get home. Still looked like dry under some of the bigger trees though so it certainly wasnt much. Only picked up .20" yesterday. Looks like a much better chance today. The Atmosphere is conditionally unstable with some tall skinny CAPE, not much shear but pretty juicy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 1 hour ago, Luke_Mages said: nope...falling apart, you can literally see the lake breeze blowing a hole in it. Well it's back together now and looking strong! Looks like a bow echo is forming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 Mesoscale Discussion 1674 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2019 Areas affected...central and northern NY...north-central PA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 081558Z - 081730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The potential for strong to locally severe gusts (45-60mph) will probably increase through midday and into the early afternoon as a squall line moves from western into central and northern NY. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a squall line over western NY as of 1150am EDT. The 7am Buffalo raob showed meager buoyancy and relatively weak westerly flow from just above the surface through 300mb. Surface heating has occurred this morning with temperatures on the NY Mesonet rising into the upper 70 to lower 80s degrees F immediately east of the squall line. KIAG measured a 40kt gust at 1039am. The NY Mesonet has up until recently only observed 33mph at 3 sites thus far. However, the NY Mesonet Batavia site very recently observed a measured gust of 47mph. RAP forecast soundings show several hundred J/kg MLCAPE developing by early afternoon across central NY. As the mid-level shortwave trough over Ontario and the lower Great Lakes progresses eastward, storm intensity is forecast to increase aided in part by the associated forcing for ascent and diurnal destabilization. Isolated wind damage owing to gusts ranging from 45-55mph (locally up to 60mph) is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 Warning issued.. The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Jefferson County in central New York... Cayuga County in central New York... Oswego County in central New York... * Until 300 PM EDT.. * At 150 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Oswego to near Lodi, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Watertown, Oswego, Fulton, Sandy Island Beach State Park, Fort Drum, Stony Point, Pulaski, Clayton, Central Square and Weedsport. This includes the following highways... Interstate 90 near exit 40. Interstate 81 between exits 32 and 51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 Think we got a small hole in the line as it was quite mild with gusts maybe to 40. No hail & rain was just moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knight_raven Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 Down here around Onondaga Hill it blew through probably 20 minutes ago now. It was a blustery little front that now has backed off to a trickle of rain and a slight breeziness. The temps behind that are very nice to my tastes. 60's now around here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 8, 2019 Author Share Posted August 8, 2019 As storms moved over the lake earlier today. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knight_raven Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 Onondaga Hill has more thunder approaching. Pretty similar to the front that came through earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted August 9, 2019 Share Posted August 9, 2019 17 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: As storms moved over the lake earlier today. That looks like the tidal wave from the movie day after tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 9, 2019 Author Share Posted August 9, 2019 I got some crazy video watching those storms move in last night. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted August 9, 2019 Share Posted August 9, 2019 High Res meso models show some lake effect bands firing up overnight off Huron and Georgian Bay. Tis the season. Just about 2 months of summery weather left and then its game on. I'm already getting excited thinking about fall and the first flakes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 9, 2019 Author Share Posted August 9, 2019 16 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: High Res meso models show some lake effect bands firing up overnight off Huron and Georgian Bay. Tis the season. Just about 2 months of summery weather left and then its game on. I'm already getting excited thinking about fall and the first flakes. Waterspout season! Bills are going to be good this year too, I need a lake effect snow home game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted August 9, 2019 Share Posted August 9, 2019 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Waterspout season! Bills are going to be good this year too, I need a lake effect snow home game. i'm surprised that what happened during the indy game hasnt happened more often, or that snow games don't happen more often in general. Then again, maybe i've just stopped watching after thanksgiving for most of the past 20 years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 9, 2019 Author Share Posted August 9, 2019 17 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: i'm surprised that what happened during the indy game hasnt happened more often, or that snow games don't happen more often in general. Then again, maybe i've just stopped watching after thanksgiving for most of the past 20 years... Well snow only occurs late Nov (Rare) into December. In that timeframe there are 4-5 games in which 2-3 are at home. Those games happen in a 3 hour window on Sunday afternoon. To get everything to line up perfectly is really rare. If the stadium moves downtown we will likely see that decrease substantially. It will be extremely rare as the stadium right now is in a good location for several lake effect events per year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted August 10, 2019 Share Posted August 10, 2019 Wayne county really got blasted by some potent storms late this afternoon. I definitely did not expect that but I guess it makes sense with such an anomalous cold pool during mid August. It certainly appears like Lake Ontario aided in the storms in someway (frictional convergence, higher dew point air, etc). They were hit by several stronger cells before this loop started too! Im mad I didn’t capture it sooner. Anyone out there to verify rainfall amounts or hail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted August 10, 2019 Share Posted August 10, 2019 Beautiful October morning out there. Crisp air, brisk NW breeze and blue skies with puffy cumulus and roving lake effect showers coming through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 13, 2019 Author Share Posted August 13, 2019 Anyone have any advice in regards to fence options. Got quoted for Pine at $6600, vinyl at $7900, Cherry at $8200. I'm heavily leaning towards vinyl as their is virtually no maintenance. Does anyone have any recommendations? The wood you have to stain every 2 years which cost $100-200 in materials and quite a bit of time and a wood fence last half as long as a vinyl does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Anyone have any advice in regards to fence options. Got quoted for Pine at $6600, vinyl at $7900, Cherry at $8200. I'm heavily leaning towards vinyl as their is virtually no maintenance. Does anyone have any recommendations? The wood you have to stain every 2 years which cost $100-200 in materials and quite a bit of time and a wood fence last half as long as a vinyl does. I had cedar at my last house and the only maintenance that was required was fixing wind and tree damage. It will grey with time if its not sealed which was fine. My neighbor had vinyl and was constantly losing entire sections to wind damage. If you're in an open area be careful of vinyl with wind. If you go with the pine or cherry get a sprayer, it'll take you only a couple hours to treat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 13, 2019 Author Share Posted August 13, 2019 35 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: I had cedar at my last house and the only maintenance that was required was fixing wind and tree damage. It will grey with time if its not sealed which was fine. My neighbor had vinyl and was constantly losing entire sections to wind damage. If you're in an open area be careful of vinyl with wind. If you go with the pine or cherry get a sprayer, it'll take you only a couple hours to treat. My buddy does fences and said the Wood and Vinyl are both good up to 90 MPH. We live in a neighborhood, everyone has been suggesting me to get vinyl. Can't make up my mind as I like the look of wood more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 I'm in the same boat as I also prefer the look and feel of wood more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 Lake Effect Snow warnings are back. One year ago, the National Office of the National Weather Service eliminated Lake Effect Snow warnings to help simplify the alert process. Starting this snow season, the warnings are being brought back after listening to concerns from people like you. The Cleveland Office of the National Weather Service confirmed with First Warning Weather on Monday it will use the polygon system to help pinpoint areas that will be most affected by lake effect snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Lake Effect Snow warnings are back. One year ago, the National Office of the National Weather Service eliminated Lake Effect Snow warnings to help simplify the alert process. Starting this snow season, the warnings are being brought back after listening to concerns from people like you. The Cleveland Office of the National Weather Service confirmed with First Warning Weather on Monday it will use the polygon system to help pinpoint areas that will be most affected by lake effect snow So is this just for the Cleveland office or across all the NWS offices? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 I'm thinking All NWS offices.. https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/scn19-63hazsimp_lake_snowaaa.pdf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 14, 2019 Author Share Posted August 14, 2019 So happy they are bringing it back. It made no sense at all as lake effect is so localized. LES Warnings are iconic to the great lakes. Winter storm warnings are used across all of the US. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted August 15, 2019 Share Posted August 15, 2019 I noticed a certain outlet that was once serious about weather (kinda like when a certain station was serious about music videos) put out a Sept to Nov temp outlook and it is suggesting BN overall during the 3 mos...Sept above, Oct below and Nov below or normal. I'm intrigued by this what would be quite a pattern shift to a western Ridge eastern trough...ive also noticed that we are heading to a neutral ENSO for winter to possibly a weak La Nina. It's early but I like some of the indications for late fall heading into winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 What a light show last night. Nearly continuous lightning for over an hour. Then when the storm got here is was nothing special, but got a nice 0.75" of rain out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 16, 2019 Author Share Posted August 16, 2019 On 8/15/2019 at 11:09 AM, Thinksnow18 said: I noticed a certain outlet that was once serious about weather (kinda like when a certain station was serious about music videos) put out a Sept to Nov temp outlook and it is suggesting BN overall during the 3 mos...Sept above, Oct below and Nov below or normal. I'm intrigued by this what would be quite a pattern shift to a western Ridge eastern trough...ive also noticed that we are heading to a neutral ENSO for winter to possibly a weak La Nina. It's early but I like some of the indications for late fall heading into winter. Real early thoughts would be about the same as last year. 5-10% above normal snowfall with colder temps then last year. KBUF checked out, but ROC/Cuse did not. I'm pretty such the tug and southern tier of WNY had 5-10% above snowfall averages as well. It's such a high level of variance with LES events. Solar Min/Neutral-Weak Enso so looks good at this time. If you get a colder then average winter, the majority if not all the time you will get above average snowfall. With 2 huge moisture sources, its virtually a lock to get more snow when you get more cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 16, 2019 Author Share Posted August 16, 2019 Really hoping I can get summer to last well into Sep to keep my pool open. Got 2 more pool parties lined up. Also throwing a Bills opener party. Getting the new fence installed next weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 16, 2019 Author Share Posted August 16, 2019 I love looking back at old threads. We had some good ones in WNY last year at end of January. That one week was just epic. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51987-upstateeastern-new-york/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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