vortmax Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 More about the EML mentioned in KBUF's AFD (below), with case studies from the Eastern US. Could get interesting! https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2010WAF2222363.1 As was previously mentioned, the pattern developing is a textbook for tongues of steep mid level lapse rates (EML plumes) to work from the Plains and Upper Great Lakes into our region. One can see the `birth` of the EML by looking at this mornings (12z Tues) classic inverted V soundings from Albuquerque (KABQ) and El Paso (KEPZ). HYSPLIT trajectory forecasts advect the mid and upper portions of this airmass into our region for the weekend. This can also be seen in BUFKIT sounding profiles and plan view H500-700 lapse rate forecasts that suggest fairly steep 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8.5 deg c/km to be present across our forecast area. Why is this significant? The EML, in combination with the aforementioned weak frontal boundary hanging around our area, and steep mid-level lapse rates, will provide the potential for strong to severe convection. Don`t forget there also could be the potential for an MCS. In fact, a study done by Ekster and Banacos found that on severe weather days when an EML was present over 80 percent of those days contained numerous high end severe weather reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 Gotta love these summer breeze boundaries...Just missing Pac-Man in Buffalo harbor gobbling them up...May have lost all their moisture but still a stormy look passing.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 16, 2019 Author Share Posted July 16, 2019 Some gravity waves in my backyard today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 16, 2019 Author Share Posted July 16, 2019 1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Gotta love these summer breeze boundaries... Just missing Pac-Man in Buffalo harbor gobbling them up... May have lost all their moisture but still a stormy look passing... . We got hit today from a pretty good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 16, 2019 Author Share Posted July 16, 2019 I bought this for storm chasing this winter. https://www.amazon.com/dp/B078WQ9SN3/ref=dp_cerb_1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 14° drop the last hour at the airport, nice breeze has kicked up as well.. Obviously the DPs still suck lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knight_raven Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 35 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I bought this for storm chasing this winter. https://www.amazon.com/dp/B078WQ9SN3/ref=dp_cerb_1 Be aware of the batteries in the cold. The advertised flight times, and the actual flight times, may vary. Nice score though! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted July 17, 2019 Share Posted July 17, 2019 I bought this for storm chasing this winter. https://www.amazon.com/dp/B078WQ9SN3/ref=dp_cerb_1Nice! Post a test flight video. What’s the height limit on that? You should be able to get a nice view over the lake from your yard. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 17, 2019 Author Share Posted July 17, 2019 5 hours ago, knight_raven said: Be aware of the batteries in the cold. The advertised flight times, and the actual flight times, may vary. Nice score though! I've heard that from reading the reviews. Thanks! With the $120 discount and the 6% cash back from my Amazon CC it came in right around $600. I've been looking at one for awhile. Hoping to take it on my Peru trip in a few months. (If they're even allowed at Machu Pichu?) A friend of mine at the gym has the Mavoc 2 and takes incredible videos with it in his travels. That was $1500 and too pricey for me. I am planning to learn from him. 1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Nice! Post a test flight video. What’s the height limit on that? You should be able to get a nice view over the lake from your yard. . Thanks! The Mavic Air flies for 21 minutes with a video transmission of 4 km (2.48 miles). It’s has a 10 km max flight range without wind and has a max height above sea level of 5 km (3.1 mile) I am planning to go to the lake but not over the water too much, along the beach for sure though. https://www.dronezon.com/drone-reviews/dji-mavic-air-review-features-specifications-faqs-answered/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 17, 2019 Share Posted July 17, 2019 Heaviest rains missed just to the north overnight, guess it's payback for last week lol Local WU Stations picked up 1/2" liquid, 5 miles north just under 2" LE..Still looks like plenty more rain to get through today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 17, 2019 Share Posted July 17, 2019 Absolute monsoon out there right now..Over an inch LE so far.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 17, 2019 Share Posted July 17, 2019 16 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Absolute monsoon out there right now..Over an inch LE so far.. You guys are getting pounded and it looks like a whole train of things to come out over Lake Ontario. Only 0.4” here with only broken showers to come according to radar. I bet you guys have another 1-2” coming so would not be surprised to see some 3-4” reports over the Eastern L.O. Counties. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted July 17, 2019 Share Posted July 17, 2019 Of much more important concern is the excessive heat watch just posted for Niagara, Orleans and Monroe Co's Friday and Saturday. My oldest has a soccer tournament in Brockport Saturday and Sunday, however we *SHOULD* escape the worst of the heat as his games Saturday are 9:30 and noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted July 17, 2019 Share Posted July 17, 2019 Looks like the bulk of the rain has been filling lake ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 17, 2019 Share Posted July 17, 2019 HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE PONDING AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF OSWEGO COUNTY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON... An area of rain will move across Oswego County through 100 p.m. and bring an additional inch of rainfall to some locations. This combined with rain that has already fallen will cause water to pond on roadways, especially in low-lying areas and locations with poor drainage. Small creeks may also approach bankfull. Motorists should remain alert for water on roadways. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knight_raven Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 1 Advanced issues found ▲ 2 On 7/16/2019 at 10:58 PM, BuffaloWeather said: Thanks! The Mavic Air flies for 21 minutes with a video transmission of 4 km (2.48 miles). It’s has a 10 km max flight range without wind and has a max height above sea level of 5 km (3.1 mile) I am planning to go to the lake but not over the water too much, along the beach for sure though. On that note, you do know the rules of the road up there, yes? https://www.faa.gov/uas/getting_started/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 Looking much better next week.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 21 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Looking much better next week.. Now that's nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 Yeah thankfully this looks like a short lived period of obnoxious heat and humidity. Hopefully this will be the hottest stretch of the whole summer. And well timed so we can spend the weekend cooling off in the lake! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 19, 2019 Author Share Posted July 19, 2019 This weather is the best. I could enjoy this for 6-7 months. BBQ, pool parties, night fires, beach. It’s fantastic. The sunset this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 36 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: This weather is the best. I could enjoy this for 6-7 months. BBQ, pool parties, night fires, beach. It’s fantastic. The sunset this evening. I’m with you man. I think we’re closet southerners trapped in WNY bodies. I love the snow and changing seasons, but I could settle into this for the majority of the year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Looks like the MCS is forming on the northern edge of the EML and LLJ...very cool. Lots of lightning with the storms (started watching with 45/min - only 20 mins later increased to 110+/min) due to the 78+ DPs in the area. Crazy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Pops have been decreased the last couple days down to 30% both today and tomorrow, so NWS not necessarily expecting this to hit us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 A lot cloudier and cooler than expected so far today, only 81 degrees at work in Hamburg with a stiff breeze. Actually feels the coolest it’s felt all week, on a day a heat advisory is in effect. Maybe the skies will break later and the temps will soar but so far I’m surprised at how cool it still is especially considering it was already 79 degrees at 5 am, I figured that would be a high platform for temps to sky rocket. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Kbuf oderate to strong instability will develop this afternoon as surface temperatures rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s and dewpoints rise into the mid 70s. A stout EML plume will be found from the central Plains extending across the Midwest to the western Great Lakes. The weaker, eastern extension of the EML may reach the eastern Great Lakes later today. The EML will provide some capping initially, but may also support more robust updrafts by late today if forcing becomes strong enough to allow ascending parcels to breach the cap. Convection late this afternoon and evening may evolve in two ways. First, scattered showers and storms may develop along the southern edge of stronger southwest flow off Lake Erie where convergence will be enhanced, from the western Southern Tier into the western Finger Lakes. This home grown convection would develop mid to late afternoon, then exit the area to the east and south this evening. Second, a convectively generated vorticity maxima moving out of the Midwest may support additional thunderstorm development this afternoon in eastern Lower Michigan and southwest Ontario. These storms, if they materialize, may cross Western NY during the early to mid evening. Both the lake breeze convection and upstream convection should exit the area later this evening, leaving mainly dry conditions overnight. PWAT rises to around 2 inches today, so any storms that develop will be capable of producing torrential downpours. Deep layer shear is weak today, but if the developing upstream convection grows upscale into a cold pool forced MCS, a few storms with damaging winds cannot be ruled out this evening across Western NY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 To my untrained eye it would seem that the are of thunderstorms entering the ontario peninsula should make to wny. Tons of lightning in those storms right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 19 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: To my untrained eye it would seem that the are of thunderstorms entering the ontario peninsula should make to wny. Tons of lightning in those storms right now. They may dry up as soon as they hit that strong SW lake breeze off Erie. Have a feeling they’ll fall apart south of IAG to Lockport with secondary convection firing south of Hamburg/Boston from the convergence as the NWS stated leaving the metro high and dry. Sun in tried to peak out for a few minutes but the thick cloud cover is right back and wind speeds have picked up even more, prob gusting in the low 20s mph, and temps have actually dropped a degree back to 80 F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said: They may dry up as soon as they hit that strong SW lake breeze off Erie. Have a feeling they’ll fall apart south of IAG to Lockport with secondary convection firing south of Hamburg/Boston from the convergence as the NWS stated leaving the metro high and dry. Sun in tried to peak out for a few minutes but the thick cloud cover is right back and wind speeds have picked up even more, prob gusting in the low 20s mph, and temps have actually dropped a degree back to 80 F. I don't think the lakes will win out this time...with DPs in the mid-70s, there's plenty of moisture and much of the instability in above the lake influences. I may be wrong, we'll see! Looking at the cloud tops when it went over Huron/GB, it did weaken a bit, but gathering strength again over the Southern Ontario hot spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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