DeltaT13 Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 21 hours ago, WesterlyWx said: WOW, I know it hasn’t been the warmest spring but it hasn’t been downright cold. That’s incredible to still have any kind of snow on the ground for this long. That’s gotta be some kind of record for them. I'm quite suspicious there is more going on with that post than they lead on. There is no way snow lasted that long without some sort of assistance (piling or shading it purposely, perhaps even using a solar blanket to reflect back the sun). If the snow had a very thick covering of debris I could see it being insulated and possibly lasting this long, but that is raw pure white snow, something smells awfully fishy to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 8 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I'm quite suspicious there is more going on with that post than they lead on. There is no way snow lasted that long without some sort of assistance (piling or shading it purposely, perhaps even using a solar blanket to reflect back the sun). If the snow had a very thick covering of debris I could see it being insulated and possibly lasting this long, but that is raw pure white snow, something smells awfully fishy to me. FWIW i have a picture of snow still on the ground in shaded spots at the bottom of the Niagara gorge from May 20th. With how much snow they probably had as a base plus altitude I could see them still having snow in protected spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 2, 2019 Author Share Posted July 2, 2019 4 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: I'm quite suspicious there is more going on with that post than they lead on. There is no way snow lasted that long without some sort of assistance (piling or shading it purposely, perhaps even using a solar blanket to reflect back the sun). If the snow had a very thick covering of debris I could see it being insulated and possibly lasting this long, but that is raw pure white snow, something smells awfully fishy to me. I've seen quite a bit of snow on holiday in early June before. Never in July though. It's definitely believable with the "spring" we had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 23 hours ago, Luke_Mages said: FWIW i have a picture of snow still on the ground in shaded spots at the bottom of the Niagara gorge from May 20th. With how much snow they probably had as a base plus altitude I could see them still having snow in protected spots. 40 days is huge difference in time. I wouldnt be shocked at all to see snow in May and Early June. But July, I just don't buy it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 20 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: I've seen quite a bit of snow on holiday in early June before. Never in July though. It's definitely believable with the "spring" we had. I agree this spring felt crappy but June was only .6 degrees below normal. Warm nights really brought up our average even though daytime highs were a bit cooler. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 Did a little digging on the Holiday Valley Snow. Seems like it was tarped off since April to save it for their mud run they held a few weeks back. I knew it was impossible for it to last on its own. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 First 90° day yesterday for kfzy, sitting at 81° currently with dews in the lower 70s... HWO Heat index values will again climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s today. If you are planning to be outdoors, be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks in the shade or inside if possible. In addition, there will also be a risk for slow moving thunderstorms that could produce locally heavy rainfall today. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. There will again be a risk for slow moving thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall on Saturday. We could use a little bit of rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 5, 2019 Author Share Posted July 5, 2019 Really hoping for no storms here tonight. Have 15 people coming over for BBQ/Pool party. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 5, 2019 Author Share Posted July 5, 2019 That lake breeze is going to save us I think. Storms firing all over WNY away from the lake. The closest is 5 miles SE of me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 5, 2019 Author Share Posted July 5, 2019 Hearing quite a bit of thunder from those storms right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 Yeah majority of SR models keep kbuf mostly dry today, different story to the east where 3k Nam is showing 1"-2" an HR rainfall, Albeit short lived.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 5, 2019 Author Share Posted July 5, 2019 7 hours ago, wolfie09 said: First 90° day yesterday for kfzy, sitting at 81° currently with dews in the lower 70s... HWO Heat index values will again climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s today. If you are planning to be outdoors, be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks in the shade or inside if possible. In addition, there will also be a risk for slow moving thunderstorms that could produce locally heavy rainfall today. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. There will again be a risk for slow moving thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall on Saturday. We could use a little bit of rain.. This run is insane, look at all that ran in blotches across the NE. Summertime storms are the best model runs, a side from LES events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 6, 2019 Author Share Posted July 6, 2019 That was a solid storm that just moved through here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 8, 2019 Share Posted July 8, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 8, 2019 Share Posted July 8, 2019 Could be worst, if we lived in the MA lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 8, 2019 Author Share Posted July 8, 2019 3 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Could be worst, if we lived in the MA lol Figures I’m in Boston for work today until Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 9, 2019 Share Posted July 9, 2019 We could use a little bit of rain.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 Very heavy rain moving through, quite windy as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 Local WU station in about 30 min.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 12, 2019 Author Share Posted July 12, 2019 July 16-24 all have 90+ potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 12, 2019 Share Posted July 12, 2019 Hopefully that excessive heat doesn't make it up here lol Very warm temperatures are expected this period, though a tropical system, presently along the northern Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Storm Barry will send moisture northward and across our region by midweek. This system may result in more cloud cover (and lower afternoon highs) while also increasing the surface dewpoints (heat indices may climb well into the 90s). Tuesday a weak warm front will push across the region, bringing much warmer and humid air across the region. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible along this boundary. This warm front may bring a few showers Tuesday night to the North Country, with areas south of Lake Ontario mainly dry and muggy. Wednesday and Thursday a wealth of tropical moisture around the Great Lakes region may fuel a few mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Models are hinting at a weak cold front dropping southward from Canada by midweek...that will not only hold back on the heat, but also increase chances for storminess. As 850 hPa temperatures near +18 to +20C, surface high temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday may near 90F across the Lake Plain, and slightly cooler inland. If this cold front to the north does push down across northern New York Wednesday and Thursday, then temperatures east of Lake Ontario will likely remain in the lower to mid 80s, a bit cooler than what we have in the forecast now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 14, 2019 Share Posted July 14, 2019 HWO The tropical remnants of Barry will cross our region Wednesday and Wednesday night. This will lead to some showers and thunderstorms that will likely contain torrential downpours. Thursday through Saturday will then be oppressively warm and humid with apparent temperatures (heat index values) forecast to climb to between 95 and 100. At these levels...a heat advisory would be required. The peak of this heat should be on Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 Pretty interesting read on the HWO for Buffalo area. 100-105 is pretty serious stuff around these parts. The tropical remnants of Barry will cross our region Wednesday and Wednesday night. This will lead to showers and thunderstorms that will likely contain torrential downpours and locally heavy rain. This will elevate the threat for localized flooding. Thursday through Saturday will then be oppressively warm and humid. While apparent temperatures (heat index values) are forecast to climb to around 95 on Thursday and Saturday...they are expected to peak on Friday with readings as high as 100 to 105. At the very least...this would prompt the issuance of heat advisories. It is not out of the question that Excessive Heat Warnings may be needed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 On 7/14/2019 at 7:02 AM, wolfie09 said: HWO The tropical remnants of Barry will cross our region Wednesday and Wednesday night. This will lead to some showers and thunderstorms that will likely contain torrential downpours. Thursday through Saturday will then be oppressively warm and humid with apparent temperatures (heat index values) forecast to climb to between 95 and 100. At these levels...a heat advisory would be required. The peak of this heat should be on Friday. Lollies around the 3 cities...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 KBUF AFD: While the vast majority of this period will be rain free...there will be the opportunity for some showers and thunderstorms. The bulk of any convection will come at the hands of a weak boundary that will sag into the region Friday night. Will continue to use chc pops for this particular period... but with ANOTHER potential problem looming over the region. The longwave pattern outlined above is textbook for tongues of steep mid level lapse rates (EML`s) to work from the Plains and Upper Great Lakes into our region. Several guidance packages depict 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8.5 deg c/km in the vcnty of the aforementioned weak frontal boundary...so there will be the risk for strong to severe convection. In fact...in a study done by Ekster and Banacos...it was found that on severe weather days when an EML was present...over 80 percent of those days contained numerous high end severe weather reports. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 Flash flooding"potential" Tuesday night through Wednesday.. .Potential for Flash Flooding late Tuesday night and Wednesday... Tuesday night will be the first of many warm muggy nights. A southwesterly mid-level flow will begin to advect the remnant tropical moisture from Barry which will eventually increase PWAT values up to 2.25 inches. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday evening will increase in coverage late in the night with the arrival of a 30kt LLJ. While this flow will provide some storm motion, PWAT values will be at the outer fringes of our climatological extremes. The warm airmass will also support efficient warm-rain processes. This can produce heavy rainfall rates with the most vulnerable locations being across the Southern Tier due to terrain, and urban areas. Model QPF is variable, and there is not enough forecast confidence to pin down a location for a Flood Watch yet, but this may be considered by later shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 Obviously can't take these numbers at total "face value" .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Flash flooding"potential" Tuesday night through Wednesday.. .Potential for Flash Flooding late Tuesday night and Wednesday... Tuesday night will be the first of many warm muggy nights. A southwesterly mid-level flow will begin to advect the remnant tropical moisture from Barry which will eventually increase PWAT values up to 2.25 inches. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday evening will increase in coverage late in the night with the arrival of a 30kt LLJ. While this flow will provide some storm motion, PWAT values will be at the outer fringes of our climatological extremes. The warm airmass will also support efficient warm-rain processes. This can produce heavy rainfall rates with the most vulnerable locations being across the Southern Tier due to terrain, and urban areas. Model QPF is variable, and there is not enough forecast confidence to pin down a location for a Flood Watch yet, but this may be considered by later shifts. Anyone ever seen higher than 2.25 PWATs for this area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 Friday Surface temp and DP Saturday Luckily Sunday starts a downward trend with both surface temps and DPs, most of next week running at or just above normal, according to the European.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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