May 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[bluewave]

Lowest spring maximum temperature at Newark by May 6th since 1997. Newark could only pull this off with plenty of rain, clouds, and onshore flow.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Highest Max Temperature Mar 1 to May 6	Missing Count
2019-05-06	80	0
2018-05-06	94	0
2017-05-06	87	0
2016-05-06	83	0
2015-05-06	87	0
2014-05-06	83	0
2013-05-06	85	0
2012-05-06	88	0
2011-05-06	87	0
2010-05-06	92	0
2009-05-06	93	0
2008-05-06	82	0
2007-05-06	86	0
2006-05-06	83	0
2005-05-06	88	0
2004-05-06	88	0
2003-05-06	88	0
2002-05-06	97	0
2001-05-06	94	0
2000-05-06	90	0
1999-05-06	83	0
1998-05-06	86	0
1997-05-06	76	0
1996-05-06	88	0

 

[uofmiami]

 

[bluewave]

^^^^^^

That wet pattern right along the East Coast is interesting. Hinting at enhancement of convection and possibly close in tropical activity. The ECMWF actually caught the potential for all the flooding last summer in the Mid-Atlantic with the May forecast. So its seasonal forecasts can show some skill as to where the heaviest rainfall potential exists.

[uncle W]

12 hours ago, doncat said:

Up to 2.00" for the day...It's just been continuous for the most part at varying rates since 1am.

I had 2" also...

[winterwx21]

20 hours ago, forkyfork said:

no tomato planting til memorial day?

I planted mine on saturday. No more threats of frost so I don't think it's a problem. A good soaking yesterday and now some warmer temps and sunshine today and tomorrow, so they should get going.

[Sn0waddict]

31 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I planted mine on saturday. No more threats of frost so I don't think it's a problem. A good soaking yesterday and now some warmer temps and sunshine today and tomorrow, so they should get going.

Likewise.

[tdp146]

54 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I planted mine on saturday. No more threats of frost so I don't think it's a problem. A good soaking yesterday and now some warmer temps and sunshine today and tomorrow, so they should get going.

I picked up my plants but they are sitting in a sunny window inside at the moment. Will give it one more week but they should be fine. Overnight lows don't look to go below 50 too much more for me and that is a good benchmark. 

[uofmiami]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

^^^^^^

That wet pattern right along the East Coast is interesting. Hinting at enhancement of convection and possibly close in tropical activity. The ECMWF actually caught the potential for all the flooding last summer in the Mid-Atlantic with the May forecast. So its seasonal forecasts can show some skill as to where the heaviest rainfall potential exists.

 

 

Agree Chris, we'll probably be on periphery of WAR & in close development of the tropics will be something to watch this summer.

[doncat]

3 hours ago, uncle W said:

I had 2" also...

Nice you know my Davis gage got clogged with all this tree crap...Good thing for the manual gage.

[NYCweatherNOW]

Nicest day of the year hands down. 70 beautiful degrees with crystal blue skies. Who wouldn’t enjoy this all year around. I would event trade this with heavy wind driven snowstorm... maybe

[SnoSki14]

7 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Nicest day of the year hands down. 70 beautiful degrees with crystal blue skies. Who wouldn’t enjoy this all year around. I would event trade this with heavy wind driven snowstorm... maybe

Seeing more clouds now, HRRR/Nam indicate temps should drop into the 50s soon due to the onshore flow. 

[forkyfork]

3 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

I planted mine on saturday. No more threats of frost so I don't think it's a problem. A good soaking yesterday and now some warmer temps and sunshine today and tomorrow, so they should get going.

this wx won't kill them but they won't grow much either

[bluewave]

This looks like our first 10+ day -1 or lower NAO drop since July 2015.

 

2015  7  4 -1.162
2015  7  5 -1.333
2015  7  6 -1.538
2015  7  7 -1.635
2015  7  8 -1.792
2015  7  9 -1.871
2015  7 10 -1.885
2015  7 11 -1.579
2015  7 12 -1.240
2015  7 13 -1.379
2015  7 14 -1.715
2015  7 15 -2.011
2015  7 16 -2.308
2015  7 17 -2.311
2015  7 18 -2.322
2015  7 19 -2.269
2015  7 20 -2.134
2015  7 21 -1.999
2015  7 22 -1.905
2015  7 23 -1.823
2015  7 24 -1.419

[forkyfork]

that was a nice few hours of sun

[Brian5671]

Euro is somewhat drier next 5-7 days....most of Thur/Fri system passes to the north...

[dWave]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

that was a nice few hours of sun

lol What does it take to get a sunny day start to finish

[dmillz25]

1 minute ago, dWave said:

lol What does it take to get a sunny day start to finish

A sacrifice 

[doncat]

A very brief high of 73° today, quickly back down to 57°.

[rclab]

23 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

A sacrifice 

A great suggestion for the winter. Many more potential and deserving candidates. As always .......

[uncle W]

a great day turned on a dime...it's 15 degrees cooler now with a few drops falling...

[dWave]

Rain in lower Manhattan now

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

^^^^^^

That wet pattern right along the East Coast is interesting. Hinting at enhancement of convection and possibly close in tropical activity. The ECMWF actually caught the potential for all the flooding last summer in the Mid-Atlantic with the May forecast. So its seasonal forecasts can show some skill as to where the heaviest rainfall potential exists.

So this cloudy wet pattern will resume after this break?  Thats horrible for the plants.  Already had too much rain and the weeds are out of control and so are the insects and pollen.  Hoping for drier weather as we head deeper into May.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

that was a nice few hours of sun

April 4th was the last completely clear day in NYC. I wonder what the record streak is for days without 0 cloud cover on the daily climate report?

 

[Cfa]

Topped out at 70. Cloudy and 59 now.

17th day in a row with measurable precipitation, 0.04” fell overnight.

[SnoSki14]

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

So this cloudy wet pattern will resume after this break?  Thats horrible for the plants.  Already had too much rain and the weeds are out of control and so are the insects and pollen.  Hoping for drier weather as we head deeper into May.

The pattern moving forward looks stormier than what we've seen though not everyday. In fact this would be an ideal winter pattern.

You have a -NAO/AO and a PNA that's rising, which will shift the trough moreso over the eastern US. I think we'll see a couple mid to late May nor'easters with some very cool temperatures. 

On the plus side we may see more offshore vs onshore flow with several fronts out of the NW, which for this time of year leads to pleasant weather. Prob 60s & 70s with low humidity.

But if you're looking for true summer weather, it'll have to wait. Def no 90s and even 80s will be hard to come by. 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The pattern moving forward looks stormier than what we've seen though not everyday. In fact this would be an ideal winter pattern.

You have a -NAO/AO and a PNA that's rising, which will shift the trough moreso over the eastern US. I think we'll see a couple mid to late May nor'easters with some very cool temperatures. 

On the plus side we may see more offshore vs onshore flow with several fronts out of the NW, which for this time of year leads to pleasant weather. Prob 60s & 70s with low humidity.

But if you're looking for true summer weather, it'll have to wait. Def no 90s and even 80s will be hard to come by. 

A bit too early for 90s but if we could get temps in the 70s with a west to northwest flow and low humidity on a consistent basis that would be great!

I'm pretty sure I have a mold problem because it's only when we get the above pattern that my allergies go away.  It's worst when it's cloudy and doesn't rain.

 

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

A bit too early for 90s but if we could get temps in the 70s with a west to northwest flow on a consistent basis that would be great!

 

You're pretty much guaranteed to hit 70F with some sunshine this time of year unless there's an onshore component or a deep trough/cut-off low.

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

You're pretty much guaranteed to hit 70F with some sunshine this time of year unless there's an onshore component or a deep trough/cut-off low.

it's rarely happened here though and the humidity has been high with very little sunshine

[Rtd208]

For the models that have backed off a bit on the rain/storm for late week they will most likely become wetter as we move closer in time which has been the general theme for the last couple of events. This is actually what we would have liked to have seen during the winter months. As for JJA, I am still on the warmer temps (but not excessively hot) train with plenty of storminess.

[donsutherland1]

Under sunshine, temperatures rose into the lower and middle 70s across the Middle Atlantic region. Another mild day is on tap for tomorrow. However, cool and unsettled weather is possible after midweek.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around May 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.90°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4.

The SOI was -5.04 today.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.462. The AO is forecast to go through an extended period where it is in the negative phase. In coming days, the AO is forecast to drop to -1.500 or below. Such a level has typically coincided with readings that are 1.0°-2.5° below normal during the May 11-20 period. The normal figure is 62.3°. The latest guidance suggests a figure of 61.1°.