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May 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Wow. That temp gradient will only reinforce this pattern. Unreal.

It will be interesting to see what the new Euro seasonal comes up with when it gets those initial SST conditions. I believe it should be out today or tomorrow. 

 

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2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

no tomato planting til memorial day?

Even the Cilantro I planted is struggling to take off due to the lack of sunshine. Temps right now are perfect for it, but once this pattern breaks and we get a taste of summer it’ll quickly bolt and become useless.

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10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see what the new Euro seasonal comes up with when it gets those initial SST conditions. I believe it should be out today or tomorrow.  The midwest is very cool

 

JB posted about it earlier-it has a gradient over philly give or take-north of there is cooler temps and south is well above.  We are all wet on the model.  This is for May/June/July

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41 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

JB posted about it earlier-it has a gradient over philly give or take-north of there is cooler temps and south is well above.  We are all wet on the model.  This is for May/June/July

Sounds like a summer version  of the last 2 weeks. It must have really keyed in on that mega SST departure gradient. Imagine a forecast like that verifying with summer deep tropical moisture and higher levels of instability. Add the potential for additional moisture from tropical storms or hurricanes with such warm SST’s near the SE and MA coast.

25A53A92-AEF3-4729-A7B6-4617302D4A31.thumb.gif.82bfc8725af4cc98f4b46331f1831b36.gif

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12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Sounds like a summer version  of the last 2 weeks. It must have really keyed in on that that mega SST departure gradient. Imagine a forecast like that verifying with summer deep tropical moisture and higher levels of instability. Add the potential for additional moisture from tropical storms or hurricanes with such warm SST’s near the SE and MA coast.

 

I really would't have a problem with the rain today if the temp was 75 instead of low to mid 50's. I would rather have temps in the 80's w/afternoon and evening thunderstorms instead of this cool and raw weather.

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1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

I really would't have a problem with the rain today if the temp was 75 instead of low to mid 50's. I would rather have temps in the 80's w/afternoon and evening thunderstorms instead of this cool and raw weather.

It’s 70 with sun in Montreal. 52 and rain here

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1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

I really would't have a problem with the rain today if the temp was 75 instead of low to mid 50's. I would rather have temps in the 80's w/afternoon and evening thunderstorms instead of this cool and raw weather.

i disagree if you had temps in the mid 70's with rain it would be so humid...

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Through 8 pm, storm total rainfall included: Allentown: 2.50"; Baltimore: 0.89"; New York City: 1.01"; Newark: 1.19"; Philadelphia: 0.92"; and, Washington, DC: 1.20".

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.93°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4.

The SOI was +0.25 today.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.978. The AO is forecast to go through an extended period where it is in the negative phase. More importantly, the AO is forecast to drop to -1.500 or below. Such a level has typically coincided with readings that are 1.0°-2.5° below normal during the May 11-20 period. The normal figure is 62.3°. The latest guidance suggests a figure of 60.4°.

MJO data for May 4 was unavailable. The data is now only available through December 31, 2018. The nature of the issue behind the absence of current data is uncertain. Additional notes concerning the state of the MJO will resume once current MJO data is available.

Since 1974, there were four cases when the MJO reached an amplitude of 1.750 or above during Phase 2 during the April 20-30 period. The mean May 1-10 temperature was 58.8° vs. the 1981-2018 average of 60.2°. 75% of those cases were cooler than the 1981-2018 average. However, during May cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.50°C or above for the month, the May 1-10 temperature averaged 60.8°. Therefore, it is likely that the first 10 days of May will probably wind up with a mean temperature of 59.2°-61.2°.

 

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