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May 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

The spring is turning into our most reliable season for -NAO patterns. 

May 2016...May 2017....March 2018....May 2019...


2016   0.12   1.58   0.73   0.38  -0.77  -0.43  -1.76  -1.65   0.61   0.41  -0.16   0.48
2017   0.48   1.00   0.74   1.73  -1.91   0.05   1.26  -1.10  -0.61   0.19  -0.00   0.88
2018   1.44   1.58  -0.93   1.24   2.12   1.09   1.39   1.97   1.67   0.93  -0.11   0.61
2019   0.59   0.29   1.23

DADD88D5-D6B2-4B98-9386-23EE2B5D5447.gif.f05bb876435222e0d106392804f1c392.gif

The CANSIPS model is still insisting that we will be under a humid airmass for most of the summer. Although it's not going for heat this time. Looks like the heat will be suppressed at this rate. The hottest part of the summer seems to be in August and September, according to the CANSIPS.  

EDIT: Looks to me that the more recent CANSIPS is slightly warmer for most of the US. Looks like an inferno for the SW US this summer, with the Death Ridge poking into the SE US from time to time. This was not the case from last month's CANSIPS run. 

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4 minutes ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

The CANSIPS model is still insisting that we will be under a humid airmass for most of the summer. Although it's not going for heat this time. Looks like the heat will be suppressed at this rate. The hottest part of the summer seems to be in August and September, according to the CANSIPS.  

EDIT: Looks to me that the more recent CANSIPS is slightly warmer for most of the US. Looks like an inferno for the SW US this summer, with the Death Ridge poking into the SE US from time to time. This was not the case from last month's CANSIPS run. 

I believe the new Euro seasonal is out tomorrow on the pay sites and the public site on the 13th. The run from early April had us with above normal temperatures and rainfall for the summer. But the WAR wasn’t as amped up as we saw last summer. 

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With the forecast storm track shifting somewhat to the north, likely precipitation amounts tonight through tomorrow have increased across the northern Mid-Atlantic region. It now appears that the region will receive a general 1.00"-2.00" rain with some locally higher amounts. Both the 18z NAM and 18z RGEM are particularly aggressive with the forecast precipitation amounts.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.93°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4.

The SOI was +0.48 today.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.584.

MJO data for May 3 was unavailable.

Since 1974, there were four cases when the MJO reached an amplitude of 1.750 or above during Phase 2 during the April 20-30 period. The mean May 1-10 temperature was 58.8° vs. the 1981-2018 average of 60.2°. 75% of those cases were cooler than the 1981-2018 average. However, during May cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.50°C or above for the month, the May 1-10 temperature averaged 60.8°. Therefore, it is likely that the first 10 days of May will probably wind up with a mean temperature of 59.2°-61.2°.

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4 hours ago, Snow88 said:

The NAO doesn't want to go positive.

If only this happen during winter.

The last few years have gone from winter, to socked-in, to summer. Of course, this year it's "winter", to socked-in to probably summer when the -NAO/marine layer crap finally breaks. 

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This may turn out to be the most active warm front-backdoor pattern we have seen in May. Euro and GFS keep the frontal boundary near the region until further notice. So we head into an early week chance of 70’s before the another  showery and cooler backdoor arrives right after. 

 

A037FE7B-42AD-406F-B3CD-D617FC446F03.thumb.png.48b0517175853edc8f7b8e07776edaf8.png

DAA79D95-C270-4E75-B550-D3DB8239F2AD.thumb.png.1d8a5186bb344d81508953f6704cfea4.png

E99C71AC-CD15-4688-B301-89A610ADFF1D.thumb.png.dfbb7f952a8796bc577e022c214f3f47.png

 

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People always laugh but instead of being a snow bird, I would love to be a soggy bird. Meaning I would love to escape to the desert southwest from mid-March to early June. I just hate these prolonged grey, wet patterns. I don't see any let up with this pattern for awhile. I am hoping that around mid-month we can break free from it.

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8 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

People always laugh but instead of being a snow bird, I would love to be a soggy bird. Meaning I would love to escape to the desert southwest from mid-March to early June. I just hate these prolonged grey, wet patterns. I don't see any let up with this pattern for awhile. I am hoping that around mid-month we can break free from it.

Interesting idea.   A nice change from this dreary weather 

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Islip extends the consecutive daily measurable rainfall streak to 16 days.

 

Number of Consecutive Days Precipitation >= .01 
for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
Last value also occurred in one or more previous years.
Period of record: 1963-09-05 to 2019-05-04
1 16 2019-05-05
2 9 1969-11-10
3 8 2003-01-06
- 8 2000-05-25
- 8 1998-05-11
- 8 1986-02-21
- 8 1978-08-07
4 7 2018-09-12
- 7 2014-12-11
- 7 2009-05-07
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41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Islip extends the consecutive daily measurable rainfall streak to 16 days.

 

Number of Consecutive Days Precipitation >= .01 
for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
Last value also occurred in one or more previous years.
Period of record: 1963-09-05 to 2019-05-04
1 16 2019-05-05
2 9 1969-11-10
3 8 2003-01-06
- 8 2000-05-25
- 8 1998-05-11
- 8 1986-02-21
- 8 1978-08-07
4 7 2018-09-12
- 7 2014-12-11
- 7 2009-05-07

4 of the top 10 stretches were in the month of May. Guess it’s the time of year 

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23 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

i love beautiful days like today...

It's a great day. I love a good synoptic rain event with cool temperatures every once in a while. 

For those complaining, you'll get months worth of heat, sun & humidity so relax. In fact by tomorrow & Tuesday we're pushing 80F again. 

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nothing compares to May 1967 for cold rainy days...this year is just rainy...the minimum so far in Central Park NYC for May is 50...if this hols up it would be the warmest May monthly minimum on record...since 2000 six years are on this list...

Warmest May monthly minimum...

49 in 2012

49 in 1982

49 in 2014

48 in 1899

48 in 2018

48 in 2015

48 in 1910

47 in 1942

47 in 1944

47 in 1969

47 in 1991

46 in 2011

46 in 2000

46 in 1999 + =and other years...

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7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Really impressive SST departure gradient where the frontal boundary has gotten stuck. 

 

B7F539E3-F310-43FF-8958-1B5024EBC852.thumb.png.91cd60da4ecaff26825d96788d7053cf.png

Wow. That temp gradient will only reinforce this pattern. Unreal.

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Day 16 of measurable precipitation, 5.68” of rain so far. Could be a whole lot higher, but ultimately it isn’t the amount of rain that’s annoying (we’ve gotten more than 2x that in 3 hours), it’s the duration and lack of sunshine, it’s agonizing.

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