Dan76 Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 Yup http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/GOES_NE/loop60.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 Temp down 14° past hour to 61°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 2, 2019 Author Share Posted May 2, 2019 Not sure I completely agree with this. https://www.nj.com/news/2019/05/nj-weather-early-summer-forecast-is-looking-bright-hot-and-not-too-wet.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=njcom_sf&utm_content=nj_facebook_njcom&fbclid=IwAR0ydY49NDQLbKFPJuuFmRwrbV_gzDINWH-qIl28XPAzCT1FxXtJVvge1Yo&fbclid=IwAR15sylp-RJKKECr8ycRLarIv_K9kL05DpWI_Xvpkwlm6m8D3R8Av7h_hn8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 tumbling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 54 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 The 12z Euro continues wetter than normal for a least the next 7 days. The frontal boundary keeps going north and south of the area with waves of low pressure. Warmer days like today when the warm front lifts north. With cooler days in the mix when the backdoors drop to our south. Pretty impressive duel between the strong -NAO Greenland block and the WAR. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Euro continues wetter than normal for a least the next 7 days. The frontal boundary keeps going north and south of the areas with waves of low pressure. Warmer days like today when the warm front lifts north. With cooler days in the mix when the backdoors drop to our south. Pretty impressive duel between the strong -NAO Greenland block and the WAR. Is this the price we pay for the Greenland block being late this year? Had this been 3/4 months earlier people would have been thrilled with winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 11 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: Is this the price we pay for the Greenland block being late this year? Had this been 3/4 months earlier people would have been thrilled with winter This looks it will continue to be our latest version of 2010’s stuck weather patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 A -NAO going into the summer can be a precursor to extreme heat due to shifting wavelengths. But for May & possibly June it'll mean some stormy weather with hot/cool intervals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 Where’s all the rain? Still waiting on the uws. Holding off on watering some new plants. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Where’s all the rain? Still waiting on the uws. Holding off on watering some new plants. Pouring here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 3, 2019 Share Posted May 3, 2019 11 minutes ago, psv88 said: Pouring here Yeah it it was just pouring on the uws. If we are going to have all this cool and cloudy weather we might as well have the rain to go with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted May 3, 2019 Share Posted May 3, 2019 no shortage of rain the next few days. after this evening's showers, there may be another round in the area late tomorrow morning, followed by weakening convection late tomorrow night. sunday's system has seen numerous pieces of guidance trend towards the more northern system the euro has had for a number of runs now, as the west atlantic ridge continues to flex. there is still considerable spread (as indicated in the gefs guidance below), but a heavy rain event would appear to be a growing possibility sunday morning. the 18z euro pegs widespread 1-2" amounts in a true nor'easter, while the 18z gefs mean is up to 1.17". 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 3, 2019 Share Posted May 3, 2019 Earlier today, the temperature surged well into the 70s from New York City southward and into the 80s across southern parts of the Mid-Atlantic region. High temperatures included: Baltimore: 88°; Islip: 71°; New York City: 78°; Newark: 78°; Philadelphia: 83°; Richmond: 88°; and, Washington, DC: 87°. With the frontal boundary's having pushed southward, a cooler day with readings in the upper 50s and lower 60s is likely across the northern Mid-Atlantic region tomorrow. However, readings in the 80s are still likely from Baltimore southward. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.93°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4. The continuation of El Niño conditions increases prospects for warm anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. During the 1981-2018 period, monthly mean temperature differences between cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.50°C or above and climatology were as follows: Boston: 59.0° vs. 58.5° for climatology New York City: 63.9° vs. 63.1° for climatology Philadelphia: 65.2° vs. 64.3° for climatology Washington, DC: 67.5° vs. 66.6° for climatology The SOI was +11.74 today. Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.107. On May 1, the MJO moved into Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.900 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat higher than the April 30-adjusted figure of 1.843. Since 1974, there were four cases when the MJO reached an amplitude of 1.750 or above during Phase 2 during the April 20-30 period. The mean May 1-10 temperature was 58.8° vs. the 1981-2018 average of 60.2°. 75% of those cases were cooler than the 1981-2018 average. However, during May cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.50°C or above for the month, the May 1-10 temperature averaged 60.8°. Therefore, it is likely that the first 10 days of May will probably wind up with a mean temperature of 59.2°-61.2°. The latest guidance has turned much warmer than the recent guidance. It now shows a mean temperature around 61.9°. That's somewhat above the range suggested by historical experience, so some cooling in the subsequent guidance is possible. Overall, May looks to be warmer than normal and wetter than normal. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of a warmer than normal month is currently 54%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 3, 2019 Share Posted May 3, 2019 Next 8 days are averaging 64degs., or about 5degs. AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 3, 2019 Share Posted May 3, 2019 6 minutes ago, CIK62 said: Next 8 days are averaging 64degs., or about 5degs. AN. How? The numbers aren't adding up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 3, 2019 Share Posted May 3, 2019 Wet pattern continues on the Gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 3, 2019 Share Posted May 3, 2019 We were using our ac's a year ago on this date with temps in the 90's for many of us....93° here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 3, 2019 Share Posted May 3, 2019 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: How? The numbers aren't adding up. Warm mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 3, 2019 Share Posted May 3, 2019 Islip keeping the historic rainy day streak going at 13. Number of Consecutive Days Precipitation >= .01 for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1963-09-05 to 2019-05-02 1 13 2019-05-02 2 9 1969-11-10 3 8 2003-01-06 - 8 2000-05-25 - 8 1998-05-11 - 8 1986-02-21 - 8 1978-08-07 4 7 2018-09-12 - 7 2014-12-11 - 7 2009-05-07 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer07840 Posted May 3, 2019 Share Posted May 3, 2019 22 hours ago, 495weatherguy said: Perhaps the weather in NJ has been different from the weather on LI. It has been very wet and dreary I'm in NW NJ and it has been cool, dreary and wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 3, 2019 Share Posted May 3, 2019 EWR Normal (avg) High/Low 5/3: 68/49 (59) 5/4: 69 50 (59) 5/5: 69 50 (59) 5/6: 69 50 (60) 5/7: 69 51 (60) 5/8: 70 51 (60) 5/9: 70 51 (61) 5/10: 70 51 (61) Forecast; 5/3: 61/55 5/4: 71/55 5/5: 62/51 5/6: 71/54 5/7: 74/58 5/8: 73/57 5/9: 71/60 5/10: 74/59 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted May 3, 2019 Share Posted May 3, 2019 7 minutes ago, golfer07840 said: I'm in NW NJ and it has been cool, dreary and wet. I guess your spring has been much like ours---south and west jersey seems to have been enjoying a much better spring. I could be wrong however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 3, 2019 Share Posted May 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: I guess your spring has been much like ours---south and west jersey seems to have been enjoying a much better spring. I could be wrong however certainly much improves as you travel southwest by 25 mile clicks the last 2 weeks especially. I do think Saturday if enough sun makes it through could be similar to Thursday with temps well into the 70s and even some 80s SW. But clouds the caveat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer07840 Posted May 3, 2019 Share Posted May 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: I guess your spring has been much like ours---south and west jersey seems to have been enjoying a much better spring. I could be wrong however Sunny days so far, have seemed very far and few between. And as someone who likes to be outside and despises cold weather, so far, the spring has been blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted May 3, 2019 Share Posted May 3, 2019 This is actually the worst spring I can remember here on the south shore of LI. I feel like it’s actually begun to affect my mood. Also, is it just me, or does optimal winter patterns setting in a few months too late seem to be a consistent theme over the past few years? I feel like the NAO tends to wait until springtime to tank. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted May 3, 2019 Share Posted May 3, 2019 7 minutes ago, Eduardo said: This is actually the worst spring I can remember here on the south shore of LI. I feel like it’s actually begun to affect my mood. Also, is it just me, or does optimal winter patterns setting in a few months too late seem to be a consistent theme over the past few years? I feel like the NAO tends to wait until springtime to tank. Absolutely, and next week looks like even more rain. I'm an outdoors person and have very little free time, so it's outright depressing when you're stuck in the house. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted May 3, 2019 Share Posted May 3, 2019 1 hour ago, golfer07840 said: Sunny days so far, have seemed very far and few between. And as someone who likes to be outside and despises cold weather, so far, the spring has been blah. I agree with everything you said! Sunny days are rare. And this chilly weather is awful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 3, 2019 Share Posted May 3, 2019 12 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Absolutely, and next week looks like even more rain. I'm an outdoors person and have very little free time, so it's outright depressing when you're stuck in the house. Don't worry. Soon it will be 90s with 70 dews and we won't be able to do anything outdoors then either except swim 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 3, 2019 Share Posted May 3, 2019 6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Don't worry. Soon it will be 90s with 70 dews and we won't be able to do anything outdoors then either except swim Then they'll complain about that constantly lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now