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May 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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1 hour ago, JerseyWx said:

I'm not so sure I'd call it pleasant or dry.  I've never had water in my basement this consistently.  It's been very wet, gray, and mostly cool (during the day relative to average).  I've seen far nicer springs.

Yeah, numerous records for the most days with measurable rainfall this April and May. Western sections of NNJ had one of their wettest springs on record.

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Precipitation >= .01 Apr 1 to May 31
Missing Count
1 2019-05-31 39 2
2 2004-05-31 29 0
3 2000-05-31 28 0
- 1983-05-31 28 0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Precipitation >= .01 Apr 1 to May 31
Missing Count
1 2019-05-31 36 2
2 1973-05-31 32 0
3 2004-05-31 30 0
- 1929-05-31 30 0
- 1898-05-31 30 0

 

Time Series Summary for Belvidere Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Mar through May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 1952 20.47 0
2 1983 19.74 0
3 1984 19.46 0
4 2019 19.39 2
5 1940 18.54 0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, numerous records for the most days with measurable rainfall this April and May. Western sections of NNJ had one of their wettest springs on record.

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Precipitation >= .01 Apr 1 to May 31
Missing Count
1 2019-05-31 39 2
2 2004-05-31 29 0
3 2000-05-31 28 0
- 1983-05-31 28 0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Precipitation >= .01 Apr 1 to May 31
Missing Count
1 2019-05-31 36 2
2 1973-05-31 32 0
3 2004-05-31 30 0
- 1929-05-31 30 0
- 1898-05-31 30 0

 

 

Time Series Summary for Belvidere Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Mar through May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 1952 20.47 0
2 1983 19.74 0
3 1984 19.46 0
4 2019 19.39 2
5 1940 18.54 0

 

 

Same here with 37 days measurable for the two months.

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27 minutes ago, uncle W said:

May 2019 should end up averaging 62.0 in NYC...the 1980-2009 average was 62.8...the new 30 year average will go up a little more...close to 63.0...2010-2019 will end up averaging about 64.3...

It’s quite an achievement to register even a tiny cold departure during May in NYC this decade.

2019....-0.3...so far

2018....+4.5

2017....-1.3

2016...+0.4

2015...+6.1

2014...+1.6

2013...+0.4

2012....+2.7

2011...+2.1

2010...+2.9

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3 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

We've had a lot of rainy periods but we've had some extended dry periods as well.

March was dry here but the longest stretch of dry weather over the past two months IMBY was 4 days, 4/1-4/4.  April had 17 of 30 days with measurable precipitation and May stands at 19 of 30 days.  

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3 hours ago, doncat said:

The back door just doesn't wanna move...No higher than 64 here today.

I’m surprised, I thought points west would’ve gotten warmer than here, my high was 68 with about 70 minutes of sunshine this afternoon.

HRRR actually predicted we’d get a break in the clouds for about an hour, though I didn’t expect it to verify.

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11 minutes ago, Cfa said:

I’m surprised, I thought points west would’ve gotten warmer than here, my high was 68 with about 70 minutes of sunshine this afternoon.

HRRR actually predicted we’d get a break in the clouds for about an hour, though I didn’t expect it to verify.

No sun at all here that I saw...Temps in the 70's were just sw of me but didn't make it, much like yesterday.

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1 hour ago, doncat said:

No sun at all here that I saw...Temps in the 70's were just sw of me but didn't make it, much like yesterday.

Hit 77 here today limited sun.  Wrong side of the front if you preferred warmer/drier weather these past few days.  Looks like troughiness into the east (overall) the next week.  Well see if ridging and the next shot at warmth materializes on/around Jun 8ish.

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Heavy thunderstorms again soaked parts of the region this evening. Rainfall totals through 8 pm included: Bridgeport: 0.43"; Islip: 0.36"; New York City: 0.74"; Newark: 0.34"; and, White Plains: 1.20".

The Southeast experienced another day of searing May heat. Daily records were tied or broken. When May concludes tomorrow, numerous cities will have experienced their warmest May on record.

Record high temperatures included:

Asheville: 91° (tied record set in 1969)
Augusta: 99° (tied record set in 1898 and tied in 1941)
Charleston, SC: 99° (old record: 95°, 1974, 1995, and 2004)
Elizabeth City: 96° (tied record set in 2011)
Fayetteville: 102° (old record: 97°, 1941) ***Tied May Record***
Florence: 100° (old record: 96°, 1953)
Jacksonville: 98° (old record: 97°, 1898 and 1945)
Macon: 99° (old record: 98°, 1898)
Raleigh: 96° (old record: 95°, 1895)
Wilmington, NC: 96° (tied record set in 1898)

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around May 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4. However, some fluctuation to warm neutral conditions is possible for at least some time.

The big increase in the ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomaly may suggest a somewhat cooler than normal to near normal first half of June.

The SOI was -9.79 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.284.

On May 29, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.545 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat higher than the May 28-adjusted figure of 2.368.

Today, Atlanta had a high temperature of 91°. Atlanta is now all but assured of having its warmest May on record. Records go back to 1879.

Select Statistics for Atlanta:

Mean Temperature (May 1-30): 76.2° (warmest first 30 days of May; old record: 75.1°, 1996)Estimated Final May 2019 Average: 76.3° (likely range: 76.2°-76.4°)

Implied probabilities: Record warm May: Near 100%; May mean temperature of 75.0° or above: Near 100%; May mean temperature of 76.0° or above: 92%.

Warmest May on Record: 74.8°, 1996 and 2018

Finally, with the cool weather during the past two days, it is now extremely likely that New York City will have a below normal May mean temperature.

Looking ahead, June will likely see temperatures within a degree of normal across the northern Middle Atlantic region. Farther south, readings could be somewhat above normal. At least in and around New York City and southward, June will likely be wetter than normal. Farther north, drier conditions appear possible.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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there have been four years that had consecutive el ninos...1957-58, 1958-59.....1976-77, 1977-78...1986-87, 1987-88....2014-15, 2015-16...the el nino we are in now is forecast to stay the course for now...the four second year el nino summers had a hot July but June and August were close to normal...I think what we have been getting is what we will get this Summer with some nice days between countless rainy days...July should be the hottest month this time...TWT...

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Last day of May averaging 73degs , or 6degs AN, but not enough to get May to AN.

Month to date is  -0.4[61.9].     May should end at  -0.2[62.2].

Basically a mirror image month, -3.0, then near +3.0 second half.

All 8 days are averaging 71degs., or 3degs.  AN.

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1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

Last day of May averaging 73degs , or 6degs AN, but not enough to get May to AN.

Month to date is  -0.4[61.9].     May should end at  -0.2[62.2].

Basically a mirror image month, -3.0, then near +3.0 second half.

Wasn’t enough warm air to get and AN May 4/5 days ago either. You start running out of days to turn around the entire month

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24 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Wasn’t enough warm air to get and AN May 4/5 days ago either. You start running out of days to turn around the entire month

This is one of the few times we have seen something resembling  an urban cooling departure island in NYC. Areas all around NYC will finish warmer than normal in May. The cool departures were limited to NYC, LGA, and JFK. It could be a first.

EWR...+0.7

NYC...-0.4

LGA....-0.6

JFK....-0.3

HPN...+0.8

ISP.....+1.0

New Brunswick...+1.7

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16 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, numerous records for the most days with measurable rainfall this April and May. Western sections of NNJ had one of their wettest springs on record.

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Precipitation >= .01 Apr 1 to May 31
Missing Count
1 2019-05-31 39 2
2 2004-05-31 29 0
3 2000-05-31 28 0
- 1983-05-31 28 0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Precipitation >= .01 Apr 1 to May 31
Missing Count
1 2019-05-31 36 2
2 1973-05-31 32 0
3 2004-05-31 30 0
- 1929-05-31 30 0
- 1898-05-31 30 0

 

Time Series Summary for Belvidere Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Mar through May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 1952 20.47 0
2 1983 19.74 0
3 1984 19.46 0
4 2019 19.39 2
5 1940 18.54 0

 

 

48 days with at least a trace since 4/1. Soggy...

15 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

March was dry here but the longest stretch of dry weather over the past two months IMBY was 4 days, 4/1-4/4.  April had 17 of 30 days with measurable precipitation and May stands at 19 of 30 days.  

I lost track of that stat but I think I had the same 4 dry days in April. 22 of 30 in April and 26 of 31 in May with at least a trace.

42 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is one of the few times we have seen something resembling  an urban cooling departure island in NYC. Areas all around NYC will finish warmer than normal in May. The cool departures were limited to NYC, LGA, and JFK. It could be a first.

EWR...+0.7

NYC...-0.4

LGA....-0.6

JFK....-0.3

HPN...+0.8

ISP.....+1.0

New Brunswick...+1.7

It's those darned trees. Cut 'em all down :P

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This is one of the few times we have seen something resembling  an urban cooling departure island in NYC. Areas all around NYC will finish warmer than normal in May. The cool departures were limited to NYC, LGA, and JFK. It could be a first.

EWR...+0.7

NYC...-0.4

LGA....-0.6

JFK....-0.3

HPN...+0.8

ISP.....+1.0

New Brunswick...+1.7

It is a statistical anomaly (or reality)

NYC has a “normal” low temp that is higher than East North and Western areas.

 

The extreme dampness has kept the low/high temp in a narrower band

This favors NYC “normal” which has a narrower band on the historical front and plays against suburban areas that should have lows in the 50s but are near 60 with clouds and humidity.

 

Def interesting scenario

 

 

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1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

It is a statistical anomaly (or reality)

NYC has a “normal” low temp that is higher than East North and Western areas.

 

The extreme dampness has kept the low/high temp in a narrower band

This favors NYC “normal” which has a narrower band on the historical front and plays against suburban areas that should have lows in the 50s but are near 60 with clouds and humidity.

 

Def interesting scenario

 

 

The maximum temperatures were muted by all the clouds, rain, and backdoor easterly flow. It looks like the same factors resulted in warmer minimums. The max and min departures at NYC, LGA, and JFK were suppressed more than the surrounding locations.

NYC.....max...-1.1....min....+0.3

LGA......max...-2.1....min....-0.8

JFK......max....-1.3....min....+0.7

EWR....max.....-0.4...min....+1.7

HPN.....max.....-0.7...min...+2.2

ISP........max.....0.0....min...+2.0

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The next chance for some thunderstorm activity is Sunday. Models are all over the place when it comes to CAPE and cloud cover, but i think there is at least a chance for thunderstorms from Eastern Pennsylvania / New Jersey up through Albany. If we can get minimal cloud cover in the morning then some of the thunderstorms may be severe. I feel like the SPC will put the area in a marginal on their day 2 update tonight. 

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6 hours ago, bluewave said:

This is one of the few times we have seen something resembling  an urban cooling departure island in NYC. Areas all around NYC will finish warmer than normal in May. The cool departures were limited to NYC, LGA, and JFK. It could be a first.

EWR...+0.7

NYC...-0.4

LGA....-0.6

JFK....-0.3

HPN...+0.8

ISP.....+1.0

New Brunswick...+1.7

That's interesting. All the clouds, rain has temps, esp lows temps, more uniform.  NYC has higher norms though. Cloudy nights are a bigger + for the suburbs. EWR probably spent a little extra time just outside of marine influences too for an added boost.

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