JustinRP37 Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 Starting to have a feeling we may not experience true summer before mid-June. Hopefully we start warming up and drying out some soon. I just have to keep reminding myself we are almost out of spring, the worst season of the year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 12 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: Starting to have a feeling we may not experience true summer before mid-June. Hopefully we start warming up and drying out some soon. I just have to keep reminding myself we are almost out of spring, the worst season of the year. The lyrics to the song, “June Is Busting Out All Over” from the musical Carousel is an apt description for this years Spring. As always.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tek1972 Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 Starting to have a feeling we may not experience true summer before mid-June. Hopefully we start warming up and drying out some soon. I just have to keep reminding myself we are almost out of spring, the worst season of the year. Maybe later. Incredibly cool daytime highs for long island so far this year.Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 Probably the best defined backdoor pattern that we have ever seen in May. https://mobile.twitter.com/Pat_wx/status/1132377912836067329 It is officially the first 20°C day of the year today in #Halifax! It is 23 days later than the 1981-2010 average and the 4th latest on record! https://mobile.twitter.com/RobElvington/status/1133684756867166209 A lot of Southeast cities on track for top 5 warmest May. Atlanta is currently warmest on record in 141 years of records. Savannah also on track for warmest in 146 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 13 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Right on the money as usual IT was pretty much what every single forecaster said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 These backdoor fronts once they lock in are hard to dislodge. Upton has 66 here today-we have not budged out of the mid 50's. Same ol story every time-the front gets further S and W than modeled and it's stuck in the 50's for days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: These backdoor fronts once they lock in are hard to dislodge. Upton has 66 here today-we have not budged out of the mid 50's. Same ol story every time-the front gets further S and W than modeled and it's stuck in the 50's for days... The NAM definitely had yesterday’s push correctly modeled about 24-36 hours out but it seemed the consensus from the NWS offices was to go more towards the GFS/Euro which held the boundary further north. Usually we don’t see back door fronts stall over Connecticut. The tendency is they either stall in central NJ or way up in RI/MA. If the models want to show something in between you usually should side on one of those other two scenarios as it’s common those will be what happens 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 60 and cloudy here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 2 hours ago, JustinRP37 said: Starting to have a feeling we may not experience true summer before mid-June. Hopefully we start warming up and drying out some soon. I just have to keep reminding myself we are almost out of spring, the worst season of the year. This sounds like what people were saying in late December....winter will be here in mid-January. NOT. This could very well be a year with out a summer but it will be a warm fall.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: This sounds like what people were saying in late December....winter will be here in mid-January. NOT. This could very well be a year with out a summer but it will be a warm fall.... Other than the last few days and Mothers Day weekend it has been a warm and relatively nice Spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 4 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: This sounds like what people were saying in late December....winter will be here in mid-January. NOT. This could very well be a year with out a summer but it will be a warm fall.... The El Niño is really starting to crap out (if it really was a real El Niño anyway) which would possibly mean the summer will be milder than initially anticipated. Much like the weather in mid to late November usually means nothing as far as the winter. The same rule usually applies to the summer and May. Many of the heat records being broken in the southeast a few days ago were from May 1996. That didn’t translate too well into the summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 1 hour ago, frankdp23 said: IT was pretty much what every single forecaster said Not true at all. Most had the severe being further NE then reality. Including the NWS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 Still just 61° here with 70's not far to my sw...Nam shows those temps getting this far n shortly...We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 46 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Other than the last few days and Mothers Day weekend it has been a warm and relatively nice Spring. The frequent back doors and rainy days kept any real warmth to our south this spring. The small warm departure is mostly a result of warmer minimums. The highs have been muted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 21 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Other than the last few days and Mothers Day weekend it has been a warm and relatively nice Spring. Central Park recorded 22 days with light rain in April with 11 of those being steady rain and 8 of them being heavy rain. Central Park recorded fog on 16 days. There were 4.55 inches of precipitation recorded. So far this May we have recorded 5.87 inches of rain with 21 days of at least fog or mist being reported. It has been mild (mainly helped by high low temperatures), but we have really been unable to string together any nice days. The ground is saturated. It would be nice to be able to dry out just a bit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 29 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Other than the last few days and Mothers Day weekend it has been a warm and relatively nice Spring. Agree it's been mostly a decent spring in NJ, not so much in parts of LI but that's par for the course in nearly every Spring. June 10 onward should feel more summery as the blocking influences continue to deteriorate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 28 minutes ago, bluewave said: The frequent back doors and rainy days kept any real warmth to our south this spring. The small warm departure is mostly a result of warmer minimums. The highs have been muted. Perhaps perception is related to specific location. Out here in NJ it’s been pleasant, warm and mostly dry, except for weekends which have seemed to be wet. We’re actually having a Spring this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 Are we expecting a La Nina to develop in time for Winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 37 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Perhaps perception is related to specific location. Out here in NJ it’s been pleasant, warm and mostly dry, except for weekends which have seemed to be wet. We’re actually having a Spring this year. I know for Newark it hasn’t been much of a spring for warmth or dry weather. The high temperature potential has been muted by all the rain, clouds and backdoor onshore flow. This was only the 5th spring since 2000 that Newark didn’t get above 90 degrees. The small warm departure was mostly driven by the minimums. Newark also set a new record for days with measurable rainfall in April and May. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Precipitation >= .01 Apr 1 to May 31 Missing Count 1 2019-05-31 35 2 2 1940-05-31 33 0 3 2003-05-31 32 0 4 2004-05-31 30 0 - 1979-05-31 30 0 - 1947-05-31 30 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Mar through May Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 2019 90 2 2018 94 0 2017 94 0 2016 96 0 2015 91 0 2014 88 0 2013 94 0 2012 92 0 2011 92 0 2010 95 0 2009 93 0 2008 87 0 2007 94 0 2006 94 0 2005 88 0 2004 92 0 2003 88 0 2002 97 0 2001 94 0 2000 94 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 34 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Perhaps perception is related to specific location. Out here in NJ it’s been pleasant, warm and mostly dry, except for weekends which have seemed to be wet. We’re actually having a Spring this year. Yeah, there's certainly perception involved, it feels like I've had a foot of rain up here this month but it's only actually a bit over 6"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 4 minutes ago, TriPol said: Are we expecting a La Nina to develop in time for Winter? The average of the ENSO prediction models in May still says weak El Niño but there’s a bunch of long range gurus saying based on the sub surface setup and other things that they think it’s going to end up being near neutral or weak Niña Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 1 minute ago, bluewave said: I know for Newark it hasn’t been much of a spring for warmth or dry weather. The high temperature potential has been muted by all the rain, clouds and backdoor onshore flow. This was only the 5th spring since 2000 that Newark didn’t get above 90 degrees. The small warm departure was mostly driven by the minimums. Newark also set a new record for days with measurable rainfall in April and May. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Precipitation >= .01 Apr 1 to May 31 Missing Count 1 2019-05-31 35 2 2 1940-05-31 33 0 3 2003-05-31 32 0 4 2004-05-31 30 0 - 1979-05-31 30 0 - 1947-05-31 30 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Mar through May Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 2019 90 2 2018 94 0 2017 94 0 2016 96 0 2015 91 0 2014 88 0 2013 94 0 2012 92 0 2011 92 0 2010 95 0 2009 93 0 2008 87 0 2007 94 0 2006 94 0 2005 88 0 2004 92 0 2003 88 0 2002 97 0 2001 94 0 2000 94 0 I don't live anywhere near Newark, however with the close proximity to the ocean they are more prone to onshore flow than I am up here. Typically on days when the city and the coast are baked into the marine layer it's clear and sunny here. Not always, but a majority of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: The average of the ENSO prediction models in May still says weak El Niño but there’s a bunch of long range gurus saying based on the sub surface setup and other things that they think it’s going to end up being near neutral or weak Niña That doesn't bode well for us snow lovers. Any winter would be better than last winter, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Yeah, there's certainly perception involved, it feels like I've had a foot of rain up here this month but it's only actually a bit over 6"... We've had a lot of rainy periods but we've had some extended dry periods as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I don't live anywhere near Newark, however with the close proximity to the ocean they are more prone to onshore flow than I am up here. Typically on days when the city and the coast are baked into the marine layer it's clear and sunny here. Not always, but a majority of the time. There aren’t really any other long term climate sites in NNJ to compare. But you can see how the small warm departures at Newark were mostly driven by the warmer minimums. Mar....max...-1.9.....min...-0.6 Apr....max....+2.1....min...+3.0 May...max.....0.0....min....+1.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 Just now, bluewave said: There aren’t really many other long term climate sites in NNJ to compare. But you can see how the small warm departures at Newark were mostly driven by the warmer minimums. Mar....max...-1.9.....min...-0.6 Apr....max....+2.1....min...+3.0 May...max.....0.0....min....+1.7 I'm more in line with Morristown. Teterboro is the closest but sometimes that 15 miles can make a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: These backdoor fronts once they lock in are hard to dislodge. Upton has 66 here today-we have not budged out of the mid 50's. Same ol story every time-the front gets further S and W than modeled and it's stuck in the 50's for days... One would think these back door fronts would become much less stubborn by this point. I live by the when in doubt, side with the backdoor cold front motto. (For NYC and points N&E ) Usually by mid May or so I have much less faith in the bdcf's staying power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 29 minutes ago, dWave said: One would think these back door fronts would become much less stubborn by this point. I live by the when in doubt, side with the backdoor cold front motto. (For NYC and points N&E ) Usually by mid May or so I have much less faith in the bdcf's staying power. The cold pool east of New England has been on steroids this spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: Perhaps perception is related to specific location. Out here in NJ it’s been pleasant, warm and mostly dry, except for weekends which have seemed to be wet. We’re actually having a Spring this year. I'm not so sure I'd call it pleasant or dry. I've never had water in my basement this consistently. It's been very wet, gray, and mostly cool (during the day relative to average). I've seen far nicer springs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 8 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: I'm not so sure I'd call it pleasant or dry. I've never had water in my basement this consistently. It's been very wet, gray, and mostly cool (during the day relative to average). I've seen far nicer springs. You make it sound like it's 2011. Springs are supposed to be wet and warm, not hot and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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