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May 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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25 minutes ago, doncat said:

Nam has quite the gradient this afternoon, with 90's pushing into s jersey with our area  in the 60's.

This has to be the most extreme battle between the SE Ridge and Greenland Block that we have ever seen this time of year. The end result is the severe storms and soaking rains we have been getting in the battle zone. 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

This has to be the most extreme battle between the SE Ridge and Greenland Block that we have ever seen this time of year. The end result is the severe storms and soaking rains we have been getting in the battle zone. 

It is a little surprising with Aleutian trough. -AO does correlate to SE ridge this time of year. Hawaii ridge was a powerful force in the Winter too.

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62.2* here.    Feeble afternoon sunshine with faint shadows, failed to de-stabilize  the lower atmosphere to go with the mid-level instability---so I bet cells die as usual and we have mostly rain.

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The historic May heat continued in the Southeast even as parts of the Middle Atlantic region were again hit by strong to severe thunderstorms.

Record temperatures included:

Augusta: 101° (old record: 99°, 1914) ***Tied May Record***
Charleston, SC: 101° (old record: 95°, 1945) ***Tied May Record***
Columbia, SC: 100° (old record: 98°, 1898 and 1941)
Elizabeth City: 100° (old record: 99°, 1941)
Florence: 101° (old record: 95°, 1991)
Jacksonville: 99° (old record: 97°, 1967)
Macon: 99° (old record: 98°, 1914 and 1911)
Myrtle Beach: 99° (old record: 89°, 1945 and 1965) ***Tied May Record***
Savannah: 99° (old record: 98°, 1898 and 1945)
Wilmington, NC: 101° (old record: 96°, 1967) ***New May Record***

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around May 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4. However, some fluctuation to warm neutral conditions is possible for at least some time.

The big increase in the ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomaly may suggest a somewhat cooler than normal to near normal first half of June.

The SOI was -6.34 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.383.

On May 28, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.368 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat higher than the May 27-adjusted figure of 2.355.

Today, Atlanta had a high temperature of 94°. Atlanta is now all but assured of having its warmest May on record. Records go back to 1879.

Select Statistics for Atlanta:

Mean Temperature (May 1-29): 76.0° (warmest first 29 days of May; old record: 75.2°, 1996)

Estimated Final May 2019 Average: 76.3° (likely range: 76.1°-76.5°)

Implied probabilities: Record warm May: Near 100%; May mean temperature of 75.0° or above: Near 100%; May mean temperature of 76.0° or above: 72%.

Warmest May on Record: 74.8°, 1996 and 2018

Finally, the sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance suggests that the implied probability of a warmer than normal May in New York City is currently just above 50%.

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Last 2 days of May are averaging 69degs., or 2degs. AN.

Month to date is  -0.3[61.8].     May should end at  -0.1[62.3].    Call it Normal.

Clouds/rain killed the AN predictions for last week of May.

Rain so far 17 days>= .01, 11 days = 0.0, 1T.

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 Newark moves into 10th place for wettest May. The spring temperature only making it as high as 90 is 2nd coolest of 2010’s

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 1984 10.22 0
2 1989 8.80 0
3 1948 8.12 0
4 1940 8.10 0
5 1978 7.97 0
6 1979 7.78 0
7 1946 7.28 0
8 2017 7.24 0
9 1990 6.87 0
10 2019 6.79 2

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Mar through May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2014 88 0
2 2019 90 2
3 2015 91 0
4 2012 92 0
- 2011 92 0
5 2018 94 0
- 2017 94 0
- 2013 94 0
6 2010 95 0
7 2016 96 0

 

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