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May 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

PA is in line for more tornadoes, par the course this year, hopefully they don't see anything like Dayton. 

Funny, I was out in Gettysburg from Friday night till yesterday afternoon and we missed all of the severe weather to the North and the South. They look to be near ground zero over the next two days.

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Just now, TriPol said:

Is it still possible to get these severe storms with the airmass being so cold and cloudy?

Even though the atmosphere is cloudy and cool near the coast it's a much different story over most of PA and areas to our immediate West. The primary threat is definitely West of the Delaware river today but it remains to be seen if we can push the warm front Northeast enough to get some surface based CAPE.

You can pretty clearly see the warm front over E PA just by connecting the dew points.

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On 5/26/2019 at 7:02 AM, bluewave said:

The Greenland block fades in early June just like the SE Ridge. This would fit with the summer pattern since 2015 of July and August having a warmer temperature departure than June.

C48494B1-D19F-4D1D-B9A6-042875357212.thumb.png.53c104e68a3a5f292fcbb7793ab8ffd8.png

This weather has been amazing!  Let's hope the horribly wet and dismal pattern in April and the first half of May is gone forever.  I'd rather have slight drought conditions than the horrible flooding they are having in the middle of the country which is destroying their crops and costing billions of dollars.  Flooding is weather's number one killer, well beyond anything else.

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Thunderstorms were moving across the region this evening.

Farther south, the historic May heat wave in the Southeast produced more record temperatures.

Select records included:

Asheville: 91° (tied daily record set in 1914 and tied in 1941)
Athens: 97° (tied daily record set in 1914)
Atlanta: 94° (tied daily record set in 1941)
Augusta: 101° (old record: 99°, 1964) ***Tied May Record***
Charleston, SC: 101° (old record: 97°, 1964 and 1967) ***New May Record***
Columbia: 101° (old record 99°, 1914) ***Tied May Record***
Florence: 102° (old record: 100°, 1964) ***Tied May Record***
Macon: 100° (old record: 99°, 1967) ***Tied May Record***
Myrtle Beach: 99° (old record: 95°, 1989) ***New May Record***
Savannah: 101° (old record: 96°, 1898 and 1964)
Tallahassee: 100° (Tied daily record set in 2000)

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around May 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4. However, some fluctuation to warm neutral conditions is possible for at least some time.

The big increase in the ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomaly may suggest a somewhat cooler than normal to near normal first half of June.

The SOI was -14.38 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.837.

On May 27, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.354 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat higher than the May 26-adjusted figure of 2.292.

Today, Atlanta had a high temperature of 94°, tied the daily record high temperature set in 1941. Atlanta is now all but assured of having its warmest May on record. Records go back to 1879.

Select Statistics for Atlanta:

Mean Temperature (May 1-28): 75.7° (warmest first 28 days of May; old record: 75.1°, 1996)

Estimated Final May 2019 Average: 76.1° (likely range: 75.9°-76.4°)

Implied probabilities: Record warm May: 98%; May mean temperature of 75.0° or above: 97%; May mean temperature of 76.0° or above: 59%.

Warmest May on Record: 74.8°, 1996 and 2018

Finally, the sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance suggests that the implied probability of a warmer than normal May in New York City is currently 59%.

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Suspect the enhanced risk for tomorrow (wednesday) will have to be expanded farther north into areas similar to today. Fairly good consensus among the early hi-res guidance for tomorrow afternoon, including the 00z NAMs, HRRR and RPM.

A surface low is forecast to track W-to-E across the city (vs WNW-to-ESE today) during the late afternoon. It appears a squall line will eventually form given the strong unidirectional flow, but scattered supercells may precede it and produce a risk for tornadoes just W-SW of the city during the afternoon.

 

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6 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Suspect the enhanced risk for tomorrow (wednesday) will have to be expanded farther north into areas similar to today. Fairly good consensus among the early hi-res guidance for tomorrow afternoon, including the 00z NAMs, HRRR and RPM.

A surface low is forecast to track W-to-E across the city (vs WNW-to-ESE today) during the late afternoon. It appears a squall line will eventually form given the strong unidirectional flow, but scattered supercells may precede it and produce a risk for tornadoes just W-SW of the city during the afternoon.

 

I like tomorrow's threat even moreso than today's, I think we'll have less junk to deal with early on too.

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Wonder if waterspout tornado passed just off CI at 10:20pm.     I don't think it was a gustnado, since rain etc. ended almost immediately after this, and F0's come before the rain etc., I believe.     No hail noted at any rate.

OLD INFO NOW but I think got this with the 60mph gusts mentioned.

 

HEADLINE: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued May 28 at 10:17PM EDT until May 28 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS New York City - Upton

DESCRIPTION: The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Queens County in southeastern New York...
Kings County in southeastern New York...
* Until 1100 PM EDT.
* At 1017 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over The
Verrazano Narrows Bridge, moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail
damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect
wind damage to trees and power lines.
* This severe thunderstorm will be near...
Flatbush and Coney Island around 1020 PM EDT.<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<my emphasis.   Did not see this message before it happened.
Canarsie and Sheepshead Bay around 1025 PM EDT.
Rockaway Beach around 1035 PM EDT.
HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH

INSTRUCTIONS: For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Issued By: NWS New York City - Upton (Long Island and New York City)

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Newark moves into 12th place for wettest May with a few more days to add to the total. So a top 10 finish looks like a good bet.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 1984 10.22 0
2 1989 8.80 0
3 1948 8.12 0
4 1940 8.10 0
5 1978 7.97 0
6 1979 7.78 0
7 1946 7.28 0
8 2017 7.24 0
9 1990 6.87 0
10 1998 6.52 0
11 1968 6.28 0
12 2019 6.21
 
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