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May 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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Under bright sunshine, New York City had a high temperature of 80° and Newark reached 82°. The Southeast continued to broil, with Wilmington, NC reaching 98°. That broke the daily record of 96°, which was set in 1989. During May 1-27, Wilmington has a mean temperature of 75.2°. That ranks second behind the 76.2° average, which was recorded during the same timeframe in 1953. However, there is an implied probability of 78% that Wilmington will record its warmest May on record.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around May 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4. However, some fluctuation to warm neutral conditions is possible for at least some time.

The big increase in the ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomaly may suggest a somewhat cooler than normal to near normal first half of June.

The SOI was -18.98 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.205.

On May 26, the MJO moved into Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.298 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat higher than the May 25-adjusted figure of 2.132.

Today, Atlanta had a high temperature of 94°, tied the daily record high temperature set in 1911 and then tied in 1916 and 1936. Atlanta is well on its way toward experiencing the warmest May on record for that city. Records go back to 1879.

Select Statistics for Atlanta:

Mean Temperature (May 1-27): 75.4° (warmest first 27 days of May; old record: 75.2°, 1996)

Estimated Final May 2019 Average: 76.0° (likely range: 75.6°-76.4°)

Implied probabilities: Record warm May: 92%; May mean temperature of 75.0° or above: 89%; May mean temperature of 76.0°: 52%.

Warmest May on Record: 74.8°, 1996 and 2018

Finally, the sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance suggests that the implied probability of a warmer than normal May in New York City is currently 63%.

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9 hours ago, NycStormChaser said:

Things look really good tomorrow in parts of Pennsylvania for severe weather. I may target Southeast PA. Possibly chase around landcaster. Wouldn't be surprised to see a tornado in that area. 

Stay home stay safe don’t be a statistic.

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25 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

I am surprised more people are not talking about today's event, especially those in eastern pennsylvania and western new jersey. 

Lets see what the next update from SPC brings. Many people are skeptical around here for good reason. The threat is definitely there if the warm front can make it far enough East.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Lets see what the next update from SPC brings. Many people are skeptical around here for good reason. The threat is definitely there if the warm front can make it far enough East.

Oh yeah, for sure. A lot can go wrong. There is a chance cloud cover doesn't break. HRRR says Eastern PA on eastward remains cloudy all day. 

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7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Why? It was always in the forecast 

My. Holly noted that the severe strongly depended on what happens with the weakening MCS. 

It's already 1230 and showers are still affecting the area and will continue to do so. Greatest threat will be SE PA, southern third of NJ. Threats dead north of there IMO.

If you check out the instability parameters (CAPE, Shear, Supercell) they are targeting SNJ, SE PA. Some of that may affect N&E but not enough to help us. 

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