NycStormChaser Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 21 minutes ago, forkyfork said: tomorrow has tornadic potential with the low passing nearby along the warm front Was just about to mention this. Tomorrow looks like a May 15th 2018 kind of day. We will see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 3 hours ago, nycwinter said: temp is 74 degrees in nyc what are you smoking? Glad we don't live there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 18 hours ago, forkyfork said: tomorrow has tornadic potential with the low passing nearby along the warm front Yeah, tornado and hail potential tomorrow on the forecast soundings. Point over NNJ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 27, 2019 Author Share Posted May 27, 2019 Current temp is a very nice 81 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 Thunderstorms tomorrow but at what time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 24 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Thunderstorms tomorrow but at what time? Evening best chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 Under bright sunshine, the temperature rose to 80° in New York City. The New York Botanical Garden roses are now in bloom. A wide variety of birds can be seen throughout the Garden. Six photos from today: 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Windows wide open. Down to 63. Perfect night to end a long weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Under bright sunshine, New York City had a high temperature of 80° and Newark reached 82°. The Southeast continued to broil, with Wilmington, NC reaching 98°. That broke the daily record of 96°, which was set in 1989. During May 1-27, Wilmington has a mean temperature of 75.2°. That ranks second behind the 76.2° average, which was recorded during the same timeframe in 1953. However, there is an implied probability of 78% that Wilmington will record its warmest May on record. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around May 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4. However, some fluctuation to warm neutral conditions is possible for at least some time. The big increase in the ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomaly may suggest a somewhat cooler than normal to near normal first half of June. The SOI was -18.98 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.205. On May 26, the MJO moved into Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.298 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat higher than the May 25-adjusted figure of 2.132. Today, Atlanta had a high temperature of 94°, tied the daily record high temperature set in 1911 and then tied in 1916 and 1936. Atlanta is well on its way toward experiencing the warmest May on record for that city. Records go back to 1879. Select Statistics for Atlanta: Mean Temperature (May 1-27): 75.4° (warmest first 27 days of May; old record: 75.2°, 1996) Estimated Final May 2019 Average: 76.0° (likely range: 75.6°-76.4°) Implied probabilities: Record warm May: 92%; May mean temperature of 75.0° or above: 89%; May mean temperature of 76.0°: 52%. Warmest May on Record: 74.8°, 1996 and 2018 Finally, the sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance suggests that the implied probability of a warmer than normal May in New York City is currently 63%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 18z 3k NAM gets the WF boundary just to the NW of NYC tomorrow evening. Valid at 22z Tuesday May 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Things look really good tomorrow in parts of Pennsylvania for severe weather. I may target Southeast PA. Possibly chase around landcaster. Wouldn't be surprised to see a tornado in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 tomorrow all depends on how the morning activity evolves as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 9 hours ago, NycStormChaser said: Things look really good tomorrow in parts of Pennsylvania for severe weather. I may target Southeast PA. Possibly chase around landcaster. Wouldn't be surprised to see a tornado in that area. Stay home stay safe don’t be a statistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 2 hours ago, ForestHillWx said: Windows wide open. Down to 63. Perfect night to end a long weekend. i'm assuming you use window screens to keep out bugs.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 28, 2019 Author Share Posted May 28, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 28, 2019 Author Share Posted May 28, 2019 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 The last 4 days of May are averaging 69.6degs., or about 2.5degs. AN. Month to date is -0.3[61.6]. May should end at +0.3[62.7]. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 10 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Stay home stay safe don’t be a statistic. Huh? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Cloudy with some light rain currently, temp 63°...Watch the warm front today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 .52" with the morning rain here. Cloudy now and 62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 I am surprised more people are not talking about today's event, especially those in eastern pennsylvania and western new jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 temps falling here with a stiff east wind-wrong side of the front for us N and E of NYC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 25 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: I am surprised more people are not talking about today's event, especially those in eastern pennsylvania and western new jersey. Lets see what the next update from SPC brings. Many people are skeptical around here for good reason. The threat is definitely there if the warm front can make it far enough East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Lets see what the next update from SPC brings. Many people are skeptical around here for good reason. The threat is definitely there if the warm front can make it far enough East. Oh yeah, for sure. A lot can go wrong. There is a chance cloud cover doesn't break. HRRR says Eastern PA on eastward remains cloudy all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 20 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Lets see what the next update from SPC brings. Many people are skeptical around here for good reason. The threat is definitely there if the warm front can make it far enough East. Morning activity has already killed this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 This threat is still very much alive. Especially for Eastern Pennsylvania. Next SPC update comes out in 5 or so minutes. Mt holly and Upton still on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Morning activity has already killed this threat. Why? It was always in the forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Why? It was always in the forecast My. Holly noted that the severe strongly depended on what happens with the weakening MCS. It's already 1230 and showers are still affecting the area and will continue to do so. Greatest threat will be SE PA, southern third of NJ. Threats dead north of there IMO. If you check out the instability parameters (CAPE, Shear, Supercell) they are targeting SNJ, SE PA. Some of that may affect N&E but not enough to help us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Let the event play out. This was always a PA/NJ day. I think the NYC will get some nice thunderstorms between 8PM and midnight. Might not be severe but should be a nice lightning show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 SPC trimmed back a bit but still slight for city on west and enhanced for much of nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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