weatherpruf Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 Folks I usually only pop in during winter here, which is appropo as it might as well be winter.....I can't remember so much cold in May as we've had the last few years. Decades ago I could have most of my garden going by now, but the last few years? If you plant summer crops ( Mother's Day was traditionally the safe time ) they are going to die or be in such shock they won't fully recover. Plus, all the rain is disgusting. Question, are these the climactic conditions we needed in winter? Canceled a fishing trip this weekend.....brrrr... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 23 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Folks I usually only pop in during winter here, which is appropo as it might as well be winter.....I can't remember so much cold in May as we've had the last few years. Decades ago I could have most of my garden going by now, but the last few years? If you plant summer crops ( Mother's Day was traditionally the safe time ) they are going to die or be in such shock they won't fully recover. Plus, all the rain is disgusting. Question, are these the climactic conditions we needed in winter? Canceled a fishing trip this weekend.....brrrr... I lost two cucumber plants so far. Other plants like eggplant are in shock. Tomatoes which are so strong they are basically weeds are static. We’ll see what’s alive by Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 14, 2019 Author Share Posted May 14, 2019 Picked up 0.70" of rain for the day. Two day storm total 1.65" Current temp 46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 1 hour ago, weatherpruf said: Folks I usually only pop in during winter here, which is appropo as it might as well be winter.....I can't remember so much cold in May as we've had the last few years. Decades ago I could have most of my garden going by now, but the last few years? If you plant summer crops ( Mother's Day was traditionally the safe time ) they are going to die or be in such shock they won't fully recover. Plus, all the rain is disgusting. Question, are these the climactic conditions we needed in winter? Canceled a fishing trip this weekend.....brrrr... If the Gfs is correct we'll all be seeing a heat wave by the weekend. I'm stunned by how hot the 0z Gfs is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 Next 8 days are averaging 65degs., or about 2degs. AN. Month to date is -1.9[57.9]. Should be -0.4[60.6]by the 22nd. Was 46.4* at 6am. The difference between EURO/GFS high T's must be a record >>> 70 versus 95 during 5/19-5/23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 Models still show the same pattern continuing. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tek1972 Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 Next week does show us reverting back to this week's pattern but I would be very cautious with this. As we enter late May and early June warmth will build quickly. It happens every year on long island. I expect to see models start backing down with this pattern, and the cooldowns become more brief.Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 looks to me as if the GFS backed off somewhat from last night as far as temps for Sunday,,,I guess we will see soon enough but as stated = what a difference in temp predictions from the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 Yesterday was the first record low max in NYC during the spring of the 2010’s. But there have been 23 record warm minimums in NYC since 2010. So people really notice the cold when the norm has been record spring warmth. 5/13 48 in 2019 49 in 1914 50 in 1931 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 32 minutes ago, tek1972 said: Next week does show us reverting back to this week's pattern but I would be very cautious with this. As we enter late May and early June warmth will build quickly. It happens every year on long island. I expect to see models start backing down with this pattern, and the cooldowns become more brief. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Maybe but the blocking isn't breaking down anytime soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 We really need to dry out. I swear to God the first person to mention drought when we have our first 7 day dry spell should be put in timeout. This pattern just reminds me why spring is the worst season. Gray, damp, and allergies. People always look at me like I’m nuts but I love winter and summer. Even this winter had more hours of sunshine I feel than this spring. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tek1972 Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 Maybe but the blocking isn't breaking down anytime soon.But it will also have less of an effect as SST'S warmSent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: We really need to dry out. I swear to God the first person to mention drought when we have our first 7 day dry spell should be put in timeout. This pattern just reminds me why spring is the worst season. Gray, damp, and allergies. People always look at me like I’m nuts but I love winter and summer. Even this winter had more hours of sunshine I feel than this spring. This. I luv winter, summer and even fall. #springsucks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: Epic battle coming up between the raging Pacific Jet and lingering -NAO. The EPS keeps the frontal boundary nearby on the 0z run So it didn’t have the stronger push of warmth that the earlier runs did. Here are the high temperatures on the Euro from NYC from Saturday through next Thursday. Continuation of the muted high temperature potential for spring if this verifies. We may have to get to within the NAMs best range in order to know where the warm front/backdoor boundary is located each day. Remember the GFS struggles with these boundaries so the Euro and NAM usually do better. Sat...67 Sun..67 Mon..67 Tue...72 Wed...62 Thr...65 Average high temps will soon be into the mid 70's....Another day with precip, 0.04" since midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, doncat said: Average high temps will soon be into the mid 70's....Another day with precip, 0.04" since midnight. First time since 1997 that Newark didn’t get above 80 degrees by May 15th. This is the 5th lowest spring maximum temperature by May 15th. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Mar 1 to May 15 Missing Count 1 1931-05-15 75 0 2 1997-05-15 77 0 3 1984-05-15 78 0 4 1975-05-15 79 0 - 1968-05-15 79 0 - 1932-05-15 79 0 5 2019-05-15 80 2 - 1981-05-15 80 0 - 1946-05-15 80 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 1 hour ago, Hitman said: This. I luv winter, summer and even fall. #springsucks. And then the people that say "what about the flowers?" I say they are pretty, but they don't last. Cherry blossoms are my favorite, but they are around for about a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 Out of the last 21 days, only one had 0 precip...Two had a trace.... 18 had measurable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 34 minutes ago, doncat said: Out of the last 21 days, only one had 0 precip...Two had a trace.... 18 had measurable. Record breaking 33 days at ISP 4/1-5/13 with measurable rain. This ties the Seattle record over the same period. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Precipitation >= .01 Apr 1 to May 13 Missing Count 1 2019-05-13 33 0 2 1989-05-13 22 0 3 2004-05-13 21 0 - 1998-05-13 21 0 - 1996-05-13 21 0 4 2009-05-13 20 0 - 2000-05-13 20 0 - 1987-05-13 20 0 Time Series Summary for Seattle Area, WA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Precipitation >= .01 Apr 1 to May 13 Missing Count 1 1993-05-13 33 0 2 2017-05-13 32 0 - 1896-05-13 32 0 3 1940-05-13 30 0 4 1948-05-13 29 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 Just had a decent little batch of rain come through, dropped .20" more. .26" on the day with 3.12" since Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 9 minutes ago, frankdp23 said: Just had a decent little batch of rain come through, dropped .20" more. .26" on the day with 3.12" since Friday night. Interesting, the radar says what rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Interesting, the radar says what rain? You're right with the radar. With NJ being out it is hard to make out what is what. I went on to Philadelphia NBC 10 radar and a little swath moved through here (North of the "N" in New Brunswick). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 13 hours ago, weatherpruf said: Folks I usually only pop in during winter here, which is appropo as it might as well be winter.....I can't remember so much cold in May as we've had the last few years. Decades ago I could have most of my garden going by now, but the last few years? If you plant summer crops ( Mother's Day was traditionally the safe time ) they are going to die or be in such shock they won't fully recover. Plus, all the rain is disgusting. Question, are these the climactic conditions we needed in winter? Canceled a fishing trip this weekend.....brrrr... I planted the tomatoes and all other summer crops on May 4th and they look fine. This cool cloudy weather slows down their growth dramatically, but it doesn't kill or harm them since there's no frost. The summer crops will just be delayed a little bit. On the other hand this cool/wet weather is absolutely great for the cool weather crops that I planted in late March. I'm getting the biggest lettuce crop I've ever gotten and the broccoli plants look great. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 Downpour #2 currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 1 hour ago, winterwx21 said: I planted the tomatoes and all other summer crops on May 4th and they look fine. This cool cloudy weather slows down their growth dramatically, but it doesn't kill or harm them since there's no frost. The summer crops will just be delayed a little bit. On the other hand this cool/wet weather is absolutely great for the cool weather crops that I planted in late March. I'm getting the biggest lettuce crop I've ever gotten and the broccoli plants look great. We are doing much better than Illinois. https://mobile.twitter.com/kannbwx/status/1128297457606172672 #Corn planting progress as of May 12 in Illinois was the SLOWEST in records back to 1979. Here are the top 5 slowest years on May 12 in Illinois: 1) 2019 - 11% 2) 2009 - 13% 3) 2013 - 17% 4) 1993 - 20% 5) 1995 - 30% The 1979-2018 average for the date is 70% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 14, 2019 Author Share Posted May 14, 2019 Well here is something interesting. Obviously more for entertainment purposes but it may have some legs and is in line with some others thinking as well. Farmers' Almanac: NJ Spring, Summer Forecast For 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 14, 2019 Author Share Posted May 14, 2019 Picked up 0.22" of rain so far today. Current temp 52 w/light rain falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 .33" today so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 14, 2019 Author Share Posted May 14, 2019 23 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Euro seasonal continues this general pattern into the summer. It would match with the new era of weather patterns getting stuck in place for extended periods. But these seasonal forecasts can often be a roll of the dice. Yeah I was never on the extremely hot summer train for here. I do think there is a heat signal coming in the mid term though otherwise I think the rest of spring/summer will feature plenty of mid to upper 80's temps with very humid and sticky conditions along with above normal precipitation. I think 90 and above temps will be limited this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 30 minutes ago, bluewave said: It looks like some of the seasonal guidance is just placing the coolest summer temperature departures over the areas of greatest soil moisture YTD. I would like to see what the pattern does following this big PAC Jet battle with the -NAO and deep 50/50 vortex. Might have a 1996 kind of summer. Your view on seasonal allergies- has the excessive rainfall the last two years lengthened the allergy season? They were never this bad or this long in the early part of the decade- or ever before for that matter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 Could be a good severe/flash flooding summer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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