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May 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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battle of the ECM vs GFS for weekend warmth and the extent of any shot at 80s / 90s.  ECM wants to continue ENE flow and limit warmth and GFS bullish as deep trough in west pushes heights and associated warmth into the area. Middle ground may be the way to go similar to past events.  Dont think we can sustain any warmth more than 24-36 hours until on / around May 26.

Would wager on a max of upper 70s to low 80s into the NE-NJ/NYC for a peak this weekend for short peroid..

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Not optimistic about anything to force a pattern change to warmer anytime soon. The cold SSTs east of Newfoundland aren’t going anywhere, and we keep seeing troughs wanting to dig in near there for the foreseeable future. That will keep the highs going over the Maritimes, and they’ll try to keep backdoors coming in. Maybe we won’t be dreary to today’s extreme later this month, but I’d be pretty stunned if May ends up above average for temps. 

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8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Not optimistic about anything to force a pattern change to warmer anytime soon. The cold SSTs east of Newfoundland aren’t going anywhere, and we keep seeing troughs wanting to dig in near there for the foreseeable future. That will keep the highs going over the Maritimes, and they’ll try to keep backdoors coming in. Maybe we won’t be dreary to today’s extreme later this month, but I’d be pretty stunned if May ends up above average for temps. 

Disappointing to say the least

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4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It is. But almost every spring features this. Most of last week was dry and pleasant.  3 cold/ rainy days then back to 60s and 70s

True, most springs have this type of weather.  Not to this extent though.  We haven’t hit 75 yet.   We haven’t had any extended stretch of nice weather.   This year has been much worse-in terms of temperature and precipitation

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47 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Not optimistic about anything to force a pattern change to warmer anytime soon. The cold SSTs east of Newfoundland aren’t going anywhere, and we keep seeing troughs wanting to dig in near there for the foreseeable future. That will keep the highs going over the Maritimes, and they’ll try to keep backdoors coming in. Maybe we won’t be dreary to today’s extreme later this month, but I’d be pretty stunned if May ends up above average for temps. 

islip's average for the month so far is exactly normal. you'd think it was -5 with all the posts like this. we've gotten so used to above normal that average feels cold

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2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

islip's average for the month so far is exactly normal. you'd think it was -5 with all the posts like this

This isn’t a normal spring.   We have been overcast all spring.   Copious amounts of rain, and high minimum temps.   We haven’t had any type of summer warmth yet, this is not a normal year 

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Just now, 495weatherguy said:

This isn’t a normal spring.   We have been overcast all spring.   Copious amounts of rain, and high minimum temps.   We haven’t had any type of summer warmth yet, this is not a normal year 

you're on long island

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4 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Acutely aware of my geography.  That being said, this has not been normal.  

One issue might be the percentage of sunshine, just seems like many days have been cloudy, or mosty cloudy, or simply transitioning to cloud cover after a sunny sunrise, few brillant sunny days for sure.  

 

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Moving forward at least things look drier than it’s been for the past month or so, minus last week which was generally pleasant.

The lack of sunshine and excess number of rainy days has felt very atypical, even if temperatures have been close to normal. Very reminiscent of the omega block patterns that ruined two consecutive Mays a couple of years back.

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45 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

islip's average for the month so far is exactly normal. you'd think it was -5 with all the posts like this. we've gotten so used to above normal that average feels cold

Without carefully analyzing numbers my perception would be that the overnight mins have been higher with all the cloud cover and lack of radiational cooling but the daytime temps have also been lagging with all the rain and cloud cover thus making it feel cooler than it actually has been relative to departures,  and yes we have been spoiled.  

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