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May 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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The Arctic Oscillation has now been at or below -1.500 for five consecutive days. As a result of the current strong Atlantic blocking, a period of cooler than normal weather lies ahead for a portion of next week starting tomorrow. Precipitation could also be above normal across the region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around May 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.90°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4.

The SOI was -22.50 today.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.566. The AO is forecast to go through an extended period where it is in the negative phase. Periods when the AO has been at or below -1.500 during the first 10 days of May have typically coincided with readings that are 1.0°-2.5° below normal during the May 11-20 period. The average temperature during the May 11-20, 1981-2010 period was 62.3°. The current forecast average is 58.7° (yesterday's figure was 57.3°), which is somewhat below what is typical during such patterns. Therefore, a sharper rebound in temperatures may be likely toward than end of that period than is presently modeled.

Overall, the sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance suggests that the probability of a warmer than normal May has decreased to around 40%.

However, since 2000, only May 2003 and May 2005 had monthly maximum temperatures below 80°. Both had monthly maximum temperatures of 79°. The probability of May 2019 finishing with such a low maximum temperature is low despite the current guidance. That also implies possible warmth that exceeds what is modeled toward the end of the month if the historical data is representative.

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39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Next weekend we are going to play the next round of how far north will the warm front get.The golf fans at the PGA championship in Bethpage are rooting for the Euro. But these frontal locations a week out can change from run to run. One thing is for sure, the warm sector south of the front will probably make a run on 90.

 

DE309319-3EEF-48F6-BF5A-64E23C433EC6.thumb.png.25078558ac750015789c7f32832a02cc.png

You think the Euro has the right idea, with the trend and tendency for the very deep - AO and -NAO even out in the future.  I tend to put more weight in the Euro's outcomes most times, but not so sure this time. 

 

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Just now, bluewave said:

The warm front gets very close to the area on the EPS mean. You can see the Bermuda high dueling with the Canadian high. So we may have to wait a few days to see how far north the warm front can get. Looks like a good bet that at least areas of the Mid-Atlantic will make a run in 90 .

96FD25AE-45EB-4E45-AF64-E70E600E67B3.thumb.png.c9dd56539a29e90bb65b6bc3c26dd414.png

 

@bluewave do you have any idea or have seen any research that you can recall at which point does the above normal SW Atlantic SSTs begin to influence the general pattern near the SE and the MidAtlantic ? Leading to more consistent warmer weather and even over-whelming the pattern as it manifests to a powerful WAR supported in part, by the wamer waters which seem to be increasing.

Thanks  

 

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29 minutes ago, frd said:

 

@bluewave do you have any idea or have seen any research that you can recall at which point does the above normal SW Atlantic SSTs begin to influence the general pattern near the SE and the MidAtlantic ? Leading to more consistent warmer weather and even over-whelming the pattern as it manifests to a powerful WAR supported in part, by the wamer waters which seem to be increasing.

Thanks  

 

You can see the highest number of above normal months this decade are near the warmer SST departures. A ring of more months with warm departures along the East Coast, Gulf, and West Coasts. Lower number over The Central US furthest away from any marine influences.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1126228312353722368

https://mobile.twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1126293596909367301

https://mobile.twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1126296962410508289

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Next weekend we are going to play the next round of how far north will the warm front get.The golf fans at the PGA championship in Bethpage are rooting for the Euro. But these frontal locations a week out can change from run to run. One thing is for sure, the warm sector south of the front will probably make a run on 90.

 

DE309319-3EEF-48F6-BF5A-64E23C433EC6.thumb.png.25078558ac750015789c7f32832a02cc.png

That looks like it would be low to mid 80's for the NYC metro according to that map. I am so ready for that but once again like your mentioned it will depend on how far north the warm front makes it. This raw/chilly/rainy weather is for the birds, I would rather have warm temps w/thunderstorms over this stuff any day.

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12 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I think we get some heat after the negative ao and nao breaks down...both are forecast to be negative for a while...

 

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The warm front gets very close to the area on the EPS mean. You can see the Bermuda high dueling with the Canadian high. So we may have to wait a few days to see how far north the warm front can get. Looks like a good bet that at least areas of the Mid-Atlantic will make a run on 90.

96FD25AE-45EB-4E45-AF64-E70E600E67B3.thumb.png.c9dd56539a29e90bb65b6bc3c26dd414.png

What do you think the odds are that we do have summer like weather for next weeks golf tournament at Bethpage?  We haven’t had much nice weather so far 

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1 minute ago, 495weatherguy said:

 

What do you think the odds are that we do have summer like weather for next weeks golf tournament at Bethpage?  We haven’t had much nice weather so far 

I think it's a good thing it wasn't this week...

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59 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

 

What do you think the odds are that we do have summer like weather for next weeks golf tournament at Bethpage?  We haven’t had much nice weather so far 

Headed there on Thursday. Hoping for a nice day. 

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