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May 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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39 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

Well, I posted this on January 28th.  "I'd bet this upcoming Spring will be cold and raw"

Jan 28.PNG

the raw part is right but temperatures are averaging above normal this Spring...NYC has not had a day below 50 so far this month...the record high May max is 49...2019 could set the record for the warmest May max on record...there is a chance temperatures could get below 50 before the month ends but not much below that I think...

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25 minutes ago, uncle W said:

the raw part is right but temperatures are averaging above normal this Spring...NYC has not had a day below 50 so far this month...the record high May max is 49...2019 could set the record for the warmest May max on record...there is a chance temperatures could get below 50 before the month ends but not much below that I think...

I think people are just shocked we haven't seen 80s & 90s when past Mays had those in abundance.

That and a few really raw days and cooler maxes overall make things feel much worse than they are. 

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3 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

I really can't believe that we just keep going back to this crap.

 50's during the day is way BN.  In fact, it's hard to remember a May with such grey days and cool highs.  The small diurnal range is making the average look "better" than it really is.

Persistent gradient pattern this year with underperforming highs relative to the lows. 

 

8A9A8610-731F-424B-9A97-F0BCFBF91833.png.db808cc932b2b1f9043882c8ca2c5dc7.png

C5EECBA2-B0B5-48CA-9A1B-126F62F71C18.png.a21b1d3256580fdb0bde35dd372d4dff.png

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3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think people are just shocked we haven't seen 80s & 90s when past Mays had those in abundance.

That and a few really raw days and cooler maxes overall make things feel much worse than they are. 

the last three Mays had at least two 90+ days...1964 and 1987 had four each...1991 had five...we could see 90 by the end of the month...or close to it...

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1 hour ago, uncle W said:

the raw part is right but temperatures are averaging above normal this Spring...NYC has not had a day below 50 so far this month...the record high May max is 49...2019 could set the record for the warmest May max on record...there is a chance temperatures could get below 50 before the month ends but not much below that I think...

seem like it will be raw, wet and cold for the foreseeable future.

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11 hours ago, bluewave said:

The high temperature range has really been muted by all the rain, clouds, and backdoor easterly flow. This is the first spring since 2000 that NYC and Newark only reached 80 degrees by May 10th. 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Highest Max Temperature Mar 1 to May 10
Missing Count
2019-05-10 80 1
2018-05-10 92 0
2017-05-10 87 0
2016-05-10 82 0
2015-05-10 85 0
2014-05-10 83 0
2013-05-10 82 0
2012-05-10 88 0
2011-05-10 83 0
2010-05-10 92 0
2009-05-10 92 0
2008-05-10 84 0
2007-05-10 86 0
2006-05-10 83 0
2005-05-10 87 0
2004-05-10 85 0
2003-05-10 88 0
2002-05-10 96 0
2001-05-10 92 0
2000-05-10 93 0
Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Highest Max Temperature Mar 1 to May 10
Missing Count
2019-05-10 80 1
2018-05-10 94 0
2017-05-10 87 0
2016-05-10 83 0
2015-05-10 88 0
2014-05-10 84 0
2013-05-10 85 0
2012-05-10 88 0
2011-05-10 87 0
2010-05-10 92 0
2009-05-10 93 0
2008-05-10 82 0
2007-05-10 86 0
2006-05-10 83 0
2005-05-10 88 0
2004-05-10 88 0
2003-05-10 88 0
2002-05-10 97 0
2001-05-10 94 0
2000-05-10 94

 

 

 

 

Whats the highest temp at JFK been, Chris?  I've recorded only a couple of days in the low 70s, they had low humidity and were delightful.

Outside of that we've switched to a rain forest climate.

 

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4 hours ago, uncle W said:

the raw part is right but temperatures are averaging above normal this Spring...NYC has not had a day below 50 so far this month...the record high May max is 49...2019 could set the record for the warmest May max on record...there is a chance temperatures could get below 50 before the month ends but not much below that I think...

the averages are deceptive because of the low mins- I had the heat on all April and I'm sure I'll have it on again Sunday and Monday.  You need highs consistently in the 70s to call it "warm"- regardless of how high the mins are.

I think you mean the record low May max is 49 and 2019 could set the record for the coolest May max on record.  In 1992 we came close, it was in the 40s for highs one day (I think May 10?) after a low of 36 and the sun came out late in the afternoon and got us into the low 50s.

Coolest May temp I remember was on May 14, 1996 with a heavy frost it was 33.5 degrees here.

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15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Whats the highest temp at JFK been, Chris?  I've recorded only a couple of days in the low 70s, they had low humidity and were delightful.

Outside of that we've switched to a rain forest climate.

 

First time on record that JFK didn’t get above 70 in spring by May 10th.

Top 5 coldest spring maxes at JFK by 5-10

Time Series Summary for JFK INTL AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Highest Max Temperature Mar 1 to May 10
Missing Count
1 2019-05-10 70 1
2 1975-05-10 71 0
3 1971-05-10 72 0
4 1961-05-10 73 0
5 1997-05-10 74 0
- 1984-05-10 74 0
- 1966-05-10 74 0
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17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

First time on record that JFK didn’t get above 70 in spring by May 10th.

Top 5 coldest spring maxes at JFK by 5-10

Time Series Summary for JFK INTL AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Highest Max Temperature Mar 1 to May 10
Missing Count
1 2019-05-10 70 1
2 1975-05-10 71 0
3 1971-05-10 72 0
4 1961-05-10 73 0
5 1997-05-10 74 0
- 1984-05-10 74 0
- 1966-05-10 74 0

Wow so today was the first 70 at JFK this year?

Also, I heard that Islip had 26 consecutive days with rain (T or more) starting April 12 and ending May 7th because there was no rain on May 8th?  Is that right- because I remember we had some rain on May 8th?  Does JFK have a similar record?

 

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The Arctic Oscillation has now been at or below -1.500 for four consecutive days. As a result of the strong Atlantic blocking, a period of cooler than normal weather lies ahead for a portion of next week starting on Sunday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around May 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.90°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4.

The SOI was -4.88 today.

Previously, it was noted that since 1974, there were four cases when the MJO reached an amplitude of 1.750 or above during Phase 2 during the April 20-30 period. The mean May 1-10 temperature was 58.8° vs. the 1981-2018 average of 60.2°. 75% of those cases were cooler than the 1981-2018 average. However, during May cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.50°C or above for the month, the May 1-10 temperature averaged 60.8°. Therefore, it is likely that the first 10 days of May will probably wind up with a mean temperature of 59.2°-61.2°. The final figure was 59.5°.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.956. The AO is forecast to go through an extended period where it is in the negative phase. Periods when the AO has been at or below -1.500 during the first 10 days of May have typically coincided with readings that are 1.0°-2.5° below normal during the May 11-20 period. The average temperature during the May 11-20, 1981-2018 period was 62.3°. The current forecast average is 58.2°, which is below what is typical during such patterns. Therefore, a sharper rebound in temperatures may be likely toward than end of that period than is presently modeled.

Finally, since 2000, only May 2003 and May 2005 had monthly maximum temperatures below 80°. Both had monthly maximum temperatures of 79°. The probability of May 2019 finishing with such a low maximum temperature is low despite the current guidance.

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