Brian5671 Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 GFS holding serve with the drier Sunday...maybe the euro is not picking up the extent of the blocking (which could make the slower GFS correct) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: They'll trend wetter as we go forward. Focus could be on Sunday night through Tuesday. Models slowing down the systems given blocking. Nasty early week with highs only in the low to mid 50s (or colder given coastal signal) with rain. Probably but originally today and tomorrow were supposed to be washouts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 GFS dumps on us Mon-Tue 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 One of the most sharply defined backdoor patterns that we have seen in early May. Be interesting to see if the Euro seasonal is correct about this continuing into the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: One of the most sharply defined backdoor patterns that we have seen in early May. Be interesting to see if the Euro seasonal is correct about this continuing into the summer. Yeah about a -0.8 degree departure here after today.... We're either having high temps in the 70's or 50's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 28 minutes ago, doncat said: Yeah about a -0.8 degree departure here after today.... We're either having high temps in the 70's or 50's. Cool maxes and near to slightly above normal minimums. Impressive departure spread between Boston and DC. About -2 at Boston to +7 in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 23 hours ago, bluewave said: Bob Henson has a great write-up on the record wet pattern. https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Wettest-12-Months-US-History?cm_ven=cat6-widget The 12 months ending in April 2019 were the wettest year-long period in U.S. records going back to 1895, according to the monthly U.S. climate summary issued Wednesday by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. Averaged across the contiguous U.S., the total of 36.20” made the period from May 2018 to April 2019 the first year-long span ever to top 36”. The old record for any 12-month period was 35.78”, from April 2015 to March 2016. its back to the high humidity allergy stuff again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 2 hours ago, bluewave said: One of the most sharply defined backdoor patterns that we have seen in early May. Be interesting to see if the Euro seasonal is correct about this continuing into the summer. This is the anniversary of the big May 9, 1977 snowstorm! And today Duluth had almost a foot of snow! Their biggest May snowstorm on record! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 some coldest May days... latest 36 degrees...5/10/1966....5/11/1913 latest 38 degrees...5/19/1976 latest 39 degrees...5/24/1963 latest 48 degree maximum...5/19/1950 latest 47 degree maximum...5/27/1961 latest 46 degree maximum...5/25/19667 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 Last 10 days of the month look AN and dry, however. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 10, 2019 Share Posted May 10, 2019 3 hours ago, CIK62 said: Last 10 days of the month look AN and dry, however. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 10, 2019 Share Posted May 10, 2019 Next 8 days averaging 58degs., or 4degs. BN. Looks to be about -2.0[58.5], by the 18th. Currently it is -0.3[58.9]. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 10, 2019 Share Posted May 10, 2019 13 hours ago, LibertyBell said: This is the anniversary of the big May 9, 1977 snowstorm! And today Duluth had almost a foot of snow! Their biggest May snowstorm on record! The high temperature range has really been muted by all the rain, clouds, and backdoor easterly flow. This is the first spring since 2000 that NYC and Newark only reached 80 degrees by May 10th. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Mar 1 to May 10 Missing Count 2019-05-10 80 1 2018-05-10 92 0 2017-05-10 87 0 2016-05-10 82 0 2015-05-10 85 0 2014-05-10 83 0 2013-05-10 82 0 2012-05-10 88 0 2011-05-10 83 0 2010-05-10 92 0 2009-05-10 92 0 2008-05-10 84 0 2007-05-10 86 0 2006-05-10 83 0 2005-05-10 87 0 2004-05-10 85 0 2003-05-10 88 0 2002-05-10 96 0 2001-05-10 92 0 2000-05-10 93 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Mar 1 to May 10 Missing Count 2019-05-10 80 1 2018-05-10 94 0 2017-05-10 87 0 2016-05-10 83 0 2015-05-10 88 0 2014-05-10 84 0 2013-05-10 85 0 2012-05-10 88 0 2011-05-10 87 0 2010-05-10 92 0 2009-05-10 93 0 2008-05-10 82 0 2007-05-10 86 0 2006-05-10 83 0 2005-05-10 88 0 2004-05-10 88 0 2003-05-10 88 0 2002-05-10 97 0 2001-05-10 94 0 2000-05-10 94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 10, 2019 Share Posted May 10, 2019 3 hours ago, CIK62 said: Next 8 days averaging 58degs., or 4degs. BN. Looks to be about -2.0[58.5], by the 18th. Currently it is -0.3[58.9]. do you ever post anything else except the next 8 days temps and the monthly temps seriously? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 10, 2019 Share Posted May 10, 2019 13 hours ago, uncle W said: some coldest May days... latest 36 degrees...5/10/1966....5/11/1913 latest 38 degrees...5/19/1976 latest 39 degrees...5/24/1963 latest 48 degree maximum...5/19/1950 latest 47 degree maximum...5/27/1961 latest 46 degree maximum...5/25/19667 NYC should finally get some below normal 40’s minimums next week to go with the cooler maxes. KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 5/10/2019 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 FRI 10| SAT 11| SUN 12| MON 13| TUE 14| WED 15| THU 16| FRI 17 CLIMO X/N 72| 55 70| 51 58| 48 56| 45 56| 47 65| 54 68| 54 73 53 71 TMP 67| 55 63| 52 51| 51 49| 47 51| 49 59| 57 62| 57 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 10, 2019 Share Posted May 10, 2019 13 hours ago, CIK62 said: Last 10 days of the month look AN and dry, however. How do you know that ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 10, 2019 Share Posted May 10, 2019 48 minutes ago, bluewave said: NYC should finally get some below normal 40’s minimums next week to go with the cooler maxes. KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 5/10/2019 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 FRI 10| SAT 11| SUN 12| MON 13| TUE 14| WED 15| THU 16| FRI 17 CLIMO X/N 72| 55 70| 51 58| 48 56| 45 56| 47 65| 54 68| 54 73 53 71 TMP 67| 55 63| 52 51| 51 49| 47 51| 49 59| 57 62| 57 66 Some guidance even suggests daytime temps in the 40s with the two coastal like storms Sun-Tue. My current forecast is low 50s Sun/Mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 10, 2019 Share Posted May 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Some guidance even suggests daytime temps in the 40s with the two coastal like storms Sun-Tue. My current forecast is low 50s Sun/Mon. Very impressive to get a MJO 8 stall along with such a -NAO/-AO. Probably would have resulted in a KU had this been the winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 10, 2019 Share Posted May 10, 2019 Make it end. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted May 10, 2019 Share Posted May 10, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: NYC should finally get some below normal 40’s minimums next week to go with the cooler maxes. KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 5/10/2019 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 FRI 10| SAT 11| SUN 12| MON 13| TUE 14| WED 15| THU 16| FRI 17 CLIMO X/N 72| 55 70| 51 58| 48 56| 45 56| 47 65| 54 68| 54 73 53 71 TMP 67| 55 63| 52 51| 51 49| 47 51| 49 59| 57 62| 57 66 I really can't believe that we just keep going back to this crap. 50's during the day is way BN. In fact, it's hard to remember a May with such grey days and cool highs. The small diurnal range is making the average look "better" than it really is. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 10, 2019 Share Posted May 10, 2019 46 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Some guidance even suggests daytime temps in the 40s with the two coastal like storms Sun-Tue. My current forecast is low 50s Sun/Mon. Shoot me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 10, 2019 Share Posted May 10, 2019 41 minutes ago, psv88 said: Make it end. Take a few hundred 747s, dump napalm and light the match east of Newfoundland. That cold anomaly up there will keep reinforcing the backdoors for as long as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 10, 2019 Share Posted May 10, 2019 At what point does climo take over? My max temp so far this year is only 73, which is nearly the average high at this point. Feels like February 2015 but in late spring. Humid Subtropical climate my @$$. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer07840 Posted May 10, 2019 Share Posted May 10, 2019 16 hours ago, CIK62 said: Last 10 days of the month look AN and dry, however. Forgive me for my pessimism, but I'll believe it when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tek1972 Posted May 10, 2019 Share Posted May 10, 2019 From my experience these back doors don't meet heavy resistance until June especially in this pattern. As usual by the time we get nice weather it will be hotSent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 10, 2019 Share Posted May 10, 2019 1 hour ago, psv88 said: Make it end. Agreed, with out sun reaching the coastal waters they aren’t warming up. It’s going to be a while. Although this will pay off in early summer by muting any potential heat at the coast. (Except for any straight west flow heat days) one thing for sure though is plants love it. The grass on my campus is about as green as I have ever seen it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted May 10, 2019 Share Posted May 10, 2019 49 minutes ago, golfer07840 said: Forgive me for my pessimism, but I'll believe it when I see it. Seems very similar to winter. Storm was always 10 days out. Heat is always 10 days away 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted May 10, 2019 Share Posted May 10, 2019 looks like I picked a good time to move! lol springs like this I hated. 2009 took forever to warm up. 1989 and 1992 also come to mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 10, 2019 Share Posted May 10, 2019 Raining...another day with measurable precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted May 10, 2019 Share Posted May 10, 2019 32 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: Seems very similar to winter. Storm was always 10 days out. Heat is always 10 days away And come September the sub-65 dews will also always be 10 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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