doncat Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 Still some more showers to my west look to move thru shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 Guys, severe threat seems legit today, especially for those West of the Hudson River. I have started a separate thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 2 hours ago, doncat said: This month continues the theme with above normal precipitation here...only one month out of the last 16 has been below normal. This year isn't too far above normal but just enough each month. Last year though was excessive with nearly 70" falling. Record 16 consecutive months with over 3.00” of precipitation for NYC. 2018 2.18 5.83 5.17 5.78 3.53 3.11 7.45 8.59 6.19 3.59 7.62 6.51 65.55 2019 3.58 3.14 3.87 4.55 4.22 M M M M M M M 19.36 https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Wettest-12-Months-US-History The Ten Wettest 12-Month Periods in Contiguous U.S. History 36.20” May 2018–Apr. 2019 35.95” May 2015–Apr. 2016 35.78” Apr. 2015–Mar. 2016 35.73” Mar. 2018–Feb. 2019 35.63” Feb. 1973–Jan. 1974 35.49” Apr. 2018–Mar. 2019 35.47” Jun. 1982–May 1983 35.42” May 1982–Apr. 1983 35.35” Mar. 1973–Feb. 1974 35.33” Feb. 2018–Jan. 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 pouring again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tek1972 Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 Guys, severe threat seems legit today, especially for those West of the Hudson River. I have started a separate thread. That front is bookingSent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around May 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.79°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4. However, some fluctuation to warm neutral conditions is possible for at least some time. The SOI was -19.44 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.039. The AO has now been at or below -1.000 or 18 consecutive days. Overall, the AO is likely to be at or below -1.000 for at least half the days during the second half of the month. Such situations have often been followed with readings within 1° of normal during the first 10 days of June. On May 22, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.821 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat higher than the May 21-adjusted figure of 1.757. The MJO has now been in Phase 8 for 10 consecutive days. The core of the warm anomalies during the remainder of May will likely be focused over the Southeast. The heat could push up the East Coast on one or two days. The potential exists for the 90° isotherm to approach or reach the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas during the height of the warmth (May 29-30 timeframe). Some of the guidance hints at readings approaching the middle 90s as far north as New York City. With potential record-challenging heat likely during part of this period, Atlanta will likely establish a new all-time monthly record high mean temperature. The existing record is 74.8°, which was set in 1996 and tied in 2018. The implied probability of May 2019's setting a new record high mean temperature for May is 74%. Select Statistics for Atlanta: Mean Temperature (May 1-23): 74.0° (6th warmest) Estimated Final May 2019 Average: 75.9° (likely range: 75.2°-76.7°) Implied probabilities: Record warm May: 74%; May mean temperature of 75.0° or above: 71%; May mean temperature of 76.0°: 48%. Warmest May on Record: 74.8°, 1996 and 2018 Finally, the sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance suggests that the implied probability of a warmer than normal May in New York City is 70%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 24, 2019 Author Share Posted May 24, 2019 Picked up 0.83" of rain for the day. Current temp 69/DP 66/RH 90% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 24, 2019 Share Posted May 24, 2019 The last 8 days of May are averaging 73degs., or 6.5degs. AN. Month to date is -0.9[60.4]. May should end near +1.0[63.5]. EURO covers its face and walks off the stage after lowering its high for 5/29 by 20 degrees---95>>>>75! Yesterday it had raised it by 26 degrees 69>>>>95! Maybe it should just wait till the 30th., to tell us what is going to happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 24, 2019 Share Posted May 24, 2019 these are the hottest May days on record for Central Park...I was in Central Park on 5/29/1969...the heat did not bother be at all...I was 20 then...1969 saw the Jets and Mets win it all and we walked on the Moon...1880 and 1895 represent the olden days... 99 5/19/1962 97 5/29/1969 97 5/30/1987 96 5/20/1996 96 5/22/1941 96 5/27/1880 96 5/29/1987 96 5/31/1895 95 5/25/1880 95 5/26/1880 95 5/27/1914 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 24, 2019 Share Posted May 24, 2019 4 hours ago, uncle W said: these are the hottest May days on record for Central Park...I was in Central Park on 5/29/1969...the heat did not bother be at all...I was 20 then...1969 saw the Jets and Mets win it all and we walked on the Moon...1880 and 1895 represent the olden days... 99 5/19/1962 97 5/29/1969 97 5/30/1987 96 5/20/1996 96 5/22/1941 96 5/27/1880 96 5/29/1987 96 5/31/1895 95 5/25/1880 95 5/26/1880 95 5/27/1914 My station record for May is 99° on the 20th in 1996. Warmest May overall was way back in 1991. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 24, 2019 Share Posted May 24, 2019 It could stay like today for the next 4 months and I'd have no complaints 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 24, 2019 Share Posted May 24, 2019 Pollen count is through the roof with Newark gusting to 46 mph. Newark/Liberty PTSUNNY 76 49 38 NW32G46 29.92S https://weather.com/forecast/allergy/l/Springfield+NJ+07081:4:US 1Springfield, NJ2871 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 On 5/14/2019 at 10:38 PM, weatherpruf said: Worst summer ever. But it came after a blockbuster winter at least, one of the greats. But summer? Couldn't even go for a swim, water was too cold. Yes, the humidity was way high that summer. On the plus side, my allergies have been gone for a week now- must be this nice dry weather- I hope it continues! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 5 hours ago, bluewave said: Pollen count is through the roof with Newark gusting to 46 mph. Newark/Liberty PTSUNNY 76 49 38 NW32G46 29.92S https://weather.com/forecast/allergy/l/Springfield+NJ+07081:4:US 1Springfield, NJ2871 wow I'm not feeling any allergies and haven't in over a week, for me when it's humid or raining a lot is when I have allergies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 6 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: It could stay like today for the next 4 months and I'd have no complaints ditto! no more yucky rainy days until fall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: ditto! no more yucky rainy days until fall! That would be horrible. That would mean we are in a drought and it would be ridiculously hot. No thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around May 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.79°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4. However, some fluctuation to warm neutral conditions is possible for at least some time. The SOI was -22.35 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.857. On May 23, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.837 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat higher than the May 22-adjusted figure of 1.819. The MJO has now been in Phase 8 for 11 consecutive days. That's the longest such stretch since February 12-22, 2019 when the MJO was also in Phase 8 for 11 consecutive days. The core of the warm anomalies during the remainder of May will likely be focused over the Southeast. The heat could push up the East Coast on one or two days. The potential exists for the 90° isotherm to approach or reach the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas during the height of the warmth (May 26 and also during the May 29-30 timeframe). Today, Atlanta had a high temperature of 94°, which just missed the daily record high temperature of 95°, which was set in 1996. That was Atlanta's highest temperature since September 20, 2018 when the temperature also reached 94°. Atlanta will likely establish a new all-time monthly record high mean temperature. The existing record is 74.8°, which was set in 1996 and tied in 2018. Select Statistics for Atlanta: Mean Temperature (May 1-24): 74.3° (5th warmest) Estimated Final May 2019 Average: 75.9° (likely range: 75.3°-76.6°) Implied probabilities: Record warm May: 77%; May mean temperature of 75.0° or above: 74%; May mean temperature of 76.0°: 48%. Warmest May on Record: 74.8°, 1996 and 2018 Finally, the sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance suggests that the implied probability of a warmer than normal May in New York City is approximately 70%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 Last 7 days of May are averaging 72.3degs., or about 5degs. AN Month to date is -0.8[60.6]. May should end near +0.8[63.2]. GFS still with a four day heatwave, topping at 95/30th. EURO has one 90. Remember for early last July the GFS had 5 100* days in a row---topping 106* twice! Reality kept peak at 96*, during that stretch. Let's see if it is any better now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 Regardless of the heat to materialize or not, it's 52 degrees and not a cloud in the sky. Great day for clearing some brush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 Sunday looks like it could be our first 90 degree day this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 High of 71 degrees today. Won't see this again until September or October most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 49 minutes ago, TriPol said: High of 71 degrees today. Won't see this again until September or October most likely. next tuesday in the city might be close to that.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 Partly Sunny here and a gorgeous morning. Up tp 67 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_NE/anim8vis.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 Does anyone know why embedded live URL linked images cache to prior days or hours? Not sure if its the site or me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 25, 2019 Author Share Posted May 25, 2019 5 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Partly Sunny here and a gorgeous morning. Up tp 67 Very nice day out there so far. I expect a high of right around 75 here. Current temp 68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 1 minute ago, Rtd208 said: Very nice day out there so far. I expect a high of right around 75 here. Current temp 68 Images were cached but if you click the link some mid/high level clouds just to the west. Hope they clear out before dulling part of the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 Next shot at 90 (some non official sites hit it on 5/20 Monday) tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 Models have backed off from the extreme heat 95+ but a couple shots of 90 are still possible. However things probably drop into the 70s or lower in between the hotter shots (Gfs shows 50s during the afternoon on Tue). High latitude blocking is preventing the SE ridge from dominating our weather. Wonder how long that lasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 7 hours ago, SACRUS said: Next shot at 90 (some non official sites hit it on 5/20 Monday) tomorrow. no way monday even coming close to 90.. in the north east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 27 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Models have backed off from the extreme heat 95+ but a couple shots of 90 are still possible. However things probably drop into the 70s or lower in between the hotter shots (Gfs shows 50s during the afternoon on Tue). High latitude blocking is preventing the SE ridge from dominating our weather. Wonder how long that lasts. who would have thought the models were wrong... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now