bluewave Posted May 18, 2019 Share Posted May 18, 2019 Monday will be the 3rd latest time in the spring that Newark went above 80 degrees. Only the 6th year that it occurred on or after May 19th.The average first date since 1981 has been April 17th. Just goes to show how extreme all the rain, clouds and onshore flow has been. First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First Value Last Value Difference 1968 06-05 (1968) 83 10-03 (1968) 83 119 1946 05-25 (1946) 88 10-31 (1946) 82 158 1984 05-23 (1984) 88 10-28 (1984) 82 157 1981 05-23 (1981) 81 09-27 (1981) 84 126 1997 05-19 (1997) 86 10-10 (1997) 85 143 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 18, 2019 Share Posted May 18, 2019 Next 8 days are averaging 70degs., or about 6degs. AN. Month to date is -2.3 [58.1]. Should be +0.2[61.8] by the 26th. First Half-Marathon finishers have arrived here in CI under blue skies and 61.5*.(about 8am) Core runners continue to arrive in droves under blue skies and 63.0*.(9am) I believe it was raining last year for this event. Large numbers of runners still arriving at 10am, 64.5*. It is stragglers and walkers now at 11am, 66.3* All over by Noon, 68.5*. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 18, 2019 Share Posted May 18, 2019 monday could be our first 90 west of the hudson 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted May 18, 2019 Share Posted May 18, 2019 Nothing like a chlorine fire in Kearny and to be woken up by the OEM telling us to stay indoors! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 18, 2019 Author Share Posted May 18, 2019 Really nice day out there so far. Current temp 71 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted May 18, 2019 Share Posted May 18, 2019 On 5/16/2019 at 9:42 PM, weatherpruf said: I have been there on Memorial Day and been able to swim in a lake ( albeit a bit cold ) and I have been there when it was downright frigid.....2012 or 13 was like that, and in snowed in upstate NYC IIRC, or somewhere up there... Absolutely. It can go extremes either way in this general region (Northeast) well into spring. I actually didn't understand all the complaining in the NE forum like a month ago about why it is so cold and where's all the warmth types of posts. It's all pretty normal for the time of the year 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 18, 2019 Share Posted May 18, 2019 Severe chance Monday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 18, 2019 Share Posted May 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Severe chance Monday? Slight risk for western areas Sunday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 18, 2019 Share Posted May 18, 2019 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Slight risk for western areas Sunday Marginal risk for Monday. But let’s see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 18, 2019 Share Posted May 18, 2019 9 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Severe chance Monday? Models actually have more convection Sunday night with the warm front. But they don’t currently have much rainfall Monday with the approaching cold front. But the severe parameters are there if later runs can fire some convection along the cold front. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 18, 2019 Share Posted May 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: Models actually have more convection Sunday night with the warm front. But they don’t currently have much rainfall Monday with the approaching cold front. But the severe parameters are there if later runs can fire some convection along the cold front. And we usually do well with warm fronts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 18, 2019 Share Posted May 18, 2019 bright sunshine and 75 here, partly - mostly cloudy skies looming out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted May 18, 2019 Share Posted May 18, 2019 Wkend in DC..life on the warm side of a front for a change. Low 80s with dews in the mid 60s. Expecting around 90 tomorrow with same dewpts. Big difference from dewpt of 39 at home. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 18, 2019 Author Share Posted May 18, 2019 Current temp is 78 here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted May 18, 2019 Share Posted May 18, 2019 2 hours ago, dWave said: Wkend in DC..life on the warm side of a front for a change. Low 80s with dews in the mid 60s. Expecting around 90 tomorrow with same dewpts. Big difference from dewpt of 39 at home. It really is night and day down there compared to NYC/BOS. They always, at least recently, seem to have super warm and above average temps on any given day after April 1st, even in late March sometimes. Not to mention the constant screw jobs they get in the winter while the NE gets buried. Too much warmth year round for me. Glad we don't live there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 18, 2019 Share Posted May 18, 2019 Tomorrow night might stay above 70. Time for the ACs to go in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 18, 2019 Share Posted May 18, 2019 Under brilliant sunshine, the temperature soared to 75° today in New York City. With each passing day, the New York Botanical Garden is taking on the appearance of summer. Six photos from this afternoon: 7 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 18, 2019 Share Posted May 18, 2019 Under bright sunshine, readings again climbed into the middle and upper 70s around the New York City region. More warmth is likely tomorrow and especially Monday. Tomorrow and Monday could see the mercury approach or reach 90° as far north as Washington, DC. Readings could reach the 80s even into New York City and its northern suburbs on Monday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around May 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.82°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4. However, some fluctuation to warm neutral conditions is possible for at least some time. The SOI was not available today. Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.110. Periods when the AO has been at or below -1.500 during the first 10 days of May have typically coincided with readings that are 1.0°-2.5° below normal during the May 11-20 period. The average temperature during the May 11-20, 1981-2010 period was 62.3°. The guidance continues to show temperatures reaching the upper 70s as far north as the northern Mid-Atlantic region in the latter part of the May 11-20 period. The possibility of an 80° or above temperature in the northern Mid-Atlantic and possibly southern New England during the latter part of this period has continued to increase on the guidance. On May 17, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.705 (RMM). The amplitude nearly unchanged from the May 16-adjusted figure of 1.705. During the May 5-15 period, the MJO reached Phase 7 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above on two days. Since 1974, three years saw the MJO in Phase 7 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above during that same timeframe. The mean May 21-31 temperature was 67.9°. The warmest was 2011 with a mean temperature of 71.2°. However, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly averaged +0.62°C during May. The coldest was 1996 with a mean temperature of 64.5°. Then, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly averaged -1.31°C. During the last 6 weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C. Therefore, the kind of chill that was seen in 1996 appears unlikely. At present, the guidance suggests a mean temperature of 69.0° for the May 21-31 timeframe. In addition, all three cases saw monthly high temperatures in the upper 80s or above in the northern Middle Atlantic region and middle and upper 80s or above in southern New England. The core of the warm anomalies during the May 21-31 period could be focused over the Southeast. With potential record-challenging heat likely during part of this period, Atlanta could approach or exceed the all-time monthly record high mean temperature of 74.8°, which was set in 1996 and tied in 2018. The implied probability of May 2019's setting a new record high mean temperature for May is 59%. Select Statistics for Atlanta: Mean Temperature (May 1-18): 72.4° (16th warmest) Estimated Final May 2019 Average: 75.5° Warmest May on Record: 74.8°, 1996 and 2018 Finally, the sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance suggests that the implied probability of a warmer than normal May in New York City is now 60%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 4 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said: It really is night and day down there compared to NYC/BOS. They always, at least recently, seem to have super warm and above average temps on any given day after April 1st, even in late March sometimes. Not to mention the constant screw jobs they get in the winter while the NE gets buried. Too much warmth year round for me. Glad we don't live there. other than 09-10 type winters, it's a graveyard for snow down there-but I sure would prefer their spring to ours...it's 5/18 and it's finally warming up.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 31 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: other than 09-10 type winters, it's a graveyard for snow down there-but I sure would prefer their spring to ours...it's 5/18 and it's finally warming up.... Nights are still cool. As soon as sun went down today it’s in the 50s. Good thing I have a nice fire roaring in the pit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 Today was 10/10 weather-wise. Gorgeous sunshine, a nice wind to keep it cool, but if you went out of the wind, the sun kept it reasonably warm... just a beautiful day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 we're in a "glad i'm not on long island" pattern for the next few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 5 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said: It really is night and day down there compared to NYC/BOS. They always, at least recently, seem to have super warm and above average temps on any given day after April 1st, even in late March sometimes. Not to mention the constant screw jobs they get in the winter while the NE gets buried. Too much warmth year round for me. Glad we don't live there. Yeah I lived there for a little while and one of the biggest difference to me was how consistant spring warmth settles in much faster and with staying power. Mid 70s in the middle of this week is considered a significant cool down here now. It helps being 100 miles from the still cold Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 10 minutes ago, dWave said: Yeah I lived there for a little while and one of the biggest difference to me was how consistant spring warmth settles in much faster and with staying power. It helps being 100 miles from the still cold Atlantic. That to me was the main difference between living here vs living there, other than that there wasn’t much of a difference. This of course was before their average snowfall was tacked onto ours while they received the scraps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 19 minutes ago, forkyfork said: we're in a "glad i'm not on long island" pattern for the next few days “We’re” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxallannj Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 Yesterday here in Clifton it was the first day since April 10th that it was not overcast during the entire day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 19, 2019 Author Share Posted May 19, 2019 Looks like some storms have popped up over C NJ moving ENE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 Next 8 days are averaging 68degs., or about 3degs. AN. Month to date is -2.0[58.5]. Should be about -0.4[61.4] by the 27th. Just got clipped here by a lite shower, at about 7am, 61*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 20 minutes ago, bluewave said: High temperatures over the Memorial Day weekend may get warmer than tomorrow with a stronger SE Ridge amplification. Be interesting to see if portions of the SE US can get an early 100 degree reading. Why do people want extreme hot weather I always wonder. It’s mid May it should be in the 70’s let the heat roll in July and August. I feel bad for the southeast that’s brutal temps 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 Wow 108 in inland GA in May, that's unreal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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