May 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[donsutherland1]

The temperature rebounded across the northern Middle Atlantic region from morning readings that approached record low figures for the date in parts of the area. High temperatures were generally in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Tomorrow will likely feature similar readings.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around May 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.82°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4. However, some fluctuation to warm neutral conditions is possible for at least some time.

The SOI was -2.59 today.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.455. Periods when the AO has been at or below -1.500 during the first 10 days of May have typically coincided with readings that are 1.0°-2.5° below normal during the May 11-20 period. The average temperature during the May 11-20, 1981-2010 period was 62.3°. Previously, the modeled figure was as low as 57.3°, which was below what is typical during such patterns and implied a sharper rebound in temperatures toward the end of the period than shown on the guidance. Since then, the guidance has shifted in that direction. It continues to show temperatures reaching the upper 70s as far north as the northern Mid-Atlantic region in the latter part of the May 11-20 period.

On May 14, the MJO was moved into Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.812 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat lower than the May 13-adjusted figure of 2.043.

During the May 5-15 period, the MJO reached Phase 7 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above on two days. Since 1974, three years saw the MJO in Phase 7 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above during that same timeframe. The mean May 21-31 temperature was 67.9°. The warmest was 2011 with a mean temperature of 71.2°. However, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly averaged +0.62°C during May. The coldest was 1996 with a mean temperature of 64.5°. Then, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly averaged -1.31°C. During the last 6 weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C. Therefore, the kind of chill that was seen in 1996 appears unlikely. At present, the guidance suggests a mean temperature of 67.4° for the May 21-31 timeframe, but that could be low. In addition, all three cases saw monthly high temperatures in the upper 80s or above in the northern Middle Atlantic region and middle and upper 80s or above in southern New England.

Overall, the sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance suggests that the probability of a warmer than normal May is approximately 51%.

[weatherpruf]

14 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Being in the industry I can attest to that. I have seen it grow up through parking lots. I once did a consultation at a gorgeous home in sea cliff right on the sound where a previous owner had planted it to stabilize the bluff. I had to tell them the back yard was shot and there was nothing we could do other the put down steel barriers to stop it from spreading further. It’s worse then bamboo. 

Finally a sunny day.  Cutting 2 acres of lawn on campus today.

If you get a backhoe and remove down to about 10 feet you might be ok.....

[weatherpruf]

14 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

If you are at the beach with sandy soil or pure sand, It is one of the few plants that will grow.

It grows to a good height...And when used properly, it protects non-beach plants plant in front of it by acting as a wind break.

Wind kills more landscaping at the beach than salt or sand does. Wind does not kill this plant. That is key to it acting like a barrier to the elements.

If you are trying to create a dune or stabilize a cliff...it does that well too.

Beyond that, yes, it is a weed that wants to spread and attracts a ton of bees during its bloom period (which is short).

Privet, Olive and Cypress all do well in the sand...but if you are open to the water...You better have a wall in front of them or this plant...if not the wind will kill the side of the plant facing the water

 

 

It's attraction to bees is actually cited as a good thing. It was so thick along the Bronx River that homeless camps were able to exist in them unseen from the outside. They are considering bringing in a natural predator from Japan, but the concern is that it might also attack other plants.

[weatherpruf]

14 hours ago, doncat said:

It's like a daughter, only different...

It talks back, tells you it hates you, you're a loser, and then asks for a 20$?

[weatherpruf]

14 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

If you are at the beach with sandy soil or pure sand, It is one of the few plants that will grow.

It grows to a good height...And when used properly, it protects non-beach plants plant in front of it by acting as a wind break.

Wind kills more landscaping at the beach than salt or sand does. Wind does not kill this plant. That is key to it acting like a barrier to the elements.

If you are trying to create a dune or stabilize a cliff...it does that well too.

Beyond that, yes, it is a weed that wants to spread and attracts a ton of bees during its bloom period (which is short).

Privet, Olive and Cypress all do well in the sand...but if you are open to the water...You better have a wall in front of them or this plant...if not the wind will kill the side of the plant facing the water

 

 

One other fun fact, it's actually edible and not bad from what I have read.

[SACRUS]

Still think the potential for some heat 2-3 days perhaps on/around 5/26.  We'll see how it trends.  This weekend if we see some over performing warmth and break through any Easterly flow, may be an indicator of stronger warmth / heat in that timeframe 5/26 or so...

 

[BombsAway1288]

2 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Don't backdoor fronts usually have less influence as we head deeper into May?? New England may be a different story.

They're usually weaker and start to become less frequent yes, but they are still very possible down to the Jersey Shore as deep as late June.

If you lived in The Canadian Maritimes or Newfoundland then there's def justification to complain (not saying you're doing that) about backdoors that can ruin a whole summer if the correct conditions are there and the pattern favors it.

It's spring in the NE, anything can happen really

[JerseyWx]

1 minute ago, BombsAway1288 said:

They're usually weaker and start to become less frequent yes, but they are still very possible down to the Jersey Shore as deep as late June.

If you lived in The Canadian Maritimes or Newfoundland then there's def justification to complain (not saying you're doing that) about backdoors that can ruin a whole summer if the correct conditions are there and the pattern favors it.

It's spring in the NE, anything can happen really

You might be thinking of the seabreeze they get down there (and LI as well).

[BombsAway1288]

9 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

You might be thinking of the seabreeze they get down there (and LI as well).

No, I meant backdoors. Yes, seabreezes cool things off also but one can get them all summer long right on the coast.

I am talking about a legit backdoor. Although not common at all and most years they won't get that far SW in June or late June but I have seen it happen.

Maybe more of a divide right over Central Jersey, just south of NYC. Backdoors seem to settle right there in any spring month

[Eduardo]

52 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

No, I meant backdoors. Yes, seabreezes cool things off also but one can get them all summer long right on the coast.

I am talking about a legit backdoor. Although not common at all and most years they won't get that far SW in June or late June but I have seen it happen.

Maybe more of a divide right over Central Jersey, just south of NYC. Backdoors seem to settle right there in any spring month

I remember a terrible, legit backdoor in early June 2015.  In fact, I feel like early June backdoors have been common since then.

 

Can anyone confirm?

[TriPol]

Wait. Is it raining out again?

[nycwinter]

7 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

I remember a terrible, legit backdoor in early June 2015.  In fact, I feel like early June backdoors have been common since then.

 

Can anyone confirm?

yes their was  a backdoor front in june which dropped the temps even in nyc

[tek1972]

Just out of 46 years experience on central long island, the pattern usually flips within first ten days of June to steady warmth. Heat usually starts July due to cold ocean.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

[weatherpruf]

5 hours ago, nycwinter said:

yes their was  a backdoor front in june which dropped the temps even in nyc

I think I remember one in 1982....I still had hair and was wearing a Members Only jacket....

[bluewave]

Euro has Monday as potentially warmest day of spring so far for NYC. But notice how the cool down on Tuesday is much weaker than the last one. So the warm ups are gaining strength while the cool downs are weakening. This should start shrinking the -3.0 temperature departure in NYC.

THU...70

FRI.....76

SAT....70

SUN...71

MON...85

TUE....65

[MJO812]

Raining here again

[uncle W]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

I think I remember one in 1982....I still had hair and was wearing a Members Only jacket....

6/13/1982...max 55...min 52...heavy rain...

[JerseyWx]

8 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said:

No, I meant backdoors. Yes, seabreezes cool things off also but one can get them all summer long right on the coast.

I am talking about a legit backdoor. Although not common at all and most years they won't get that far SW in June or late June but I have seen it happen.

Maybe more of a divide right over Central Jersey, just south of NYC. Backdoors seem to settle right there in any spring month

Alright, I was just wondering.  Very uncommon but I guess can happen.

[CIK62]

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Posted 3 hours ago

Next 8 days averaging 68degs., or 4degs. AN. 

Month to date is  -3.0[57.2].       Should be -0.5[61.1] by the 24th.

[gravitylover]

10 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

If you get a backhoe and remove down to about 10 feet you might be ok.....

Or just dump a bunch of Roundup... 

9 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

It's attraction to bees is actually cited as a good thing. It was so thick along the Bronx River that homeless camps were able to exist in them unseen from the outside. They are considering bringing in a natural predator from Japan, but the concern is that it might also attack other plants.

I don't think there's a way to bring in a non native species without some sort of negative effect. Bringing in its predator always has other consequences and they're rarely good. 

9 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said:

They're usually weaker and start to become less frequent yes, but they are still very possible down to the Jersey Shore as deep as late June.

If you lived in The Canadian Maritimes or Newfoundland then there's def justification to complain (not saying you're doing that) about backdoors that can ruin a whole summer if the correct conditions are there and the pattern favors it.

It's spring in the NE, anything can happen really

As evidenced by snow as far south as the Litchfield Hills in CT the last few days with accumulating snow above 1500 feet in the Berkshire foothills and a ton of snow at that elevation and above further north.

[etudiant]

10 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

One other fun fact, it's actually edible and not bad from what I have read.

Which part is edible? Does anyone grow it for food?

[doncat]

Rained again over nite with 0.07"....Were  some showers around late yesterday  also but missed my station.

 

[FPizz]

14 minutes ago, doncat said:

Rained again over nite with 0.07"....Were  some showers around late yesterday  also but missed my station.

 

0.07" out this way as well. 

[Cfa]

0.12” overnight here.

Currently 67, should get into the 70’s today.

[dmillz25]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Euro has Monday as potentially warmest day of spring so far for NYC. But notice how the cool down on Tuesday is much weaker than the last one. So the warm ups are gaining strength while the cool downs are weakening. This should start shrinking the -3.0 temperature departure in NYC.

THU...70

FRI.....76

SAT....70

SUN...71

MON...85

TUE....65

I much rather take a cooldown into the 60s than the 40s/50s

[weatherpruf]

4 hours ago, uncle W said:

6/13/1982...max 55...min 52...heavy rain...

Don't ever change, Unc!

[weatherpruf]

3 hours ago, etudiant said:

Which part is edible? Does anyone grow it for food?

The stems can be used like rhubarb.

[weatherpruf]

4 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Or just dump a bunch of Roundup... 

I don't think there's a way to bring in a non native species without some sort of negative effect. Bringing in its predator always has other consequences and they're rarely good. 

As evidenced by snow as far south as the Litchfield Hills in CT the last few days with accumulating snow above 1500 feet in the Berkshire foothills and a ton of snow at that elevation and above further north.

It is impervious to Roundup, which I wouldn't use anyway until they sort out the cancer stuff.

[Cfa]

74 here, warmest it’s been this year.

[Rtd208]

Another nice day today.

Current temp is 73 here.