May 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[gravitylover]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Might have a 1996 kind of summer.

Your view on seasonal allergies- has the excessive rainfall the last two years lengthened the allergy season?  They were never this bad or this long in the early part of the decade- or ever before for that matter.

 

Extended winter weather and the resultant delayed spring makes it seem like allergy season is longer but I bet that it's about the same length just pushed out further. I know that it has been very moldy due to all of the moisture so that may be a factor for you also. 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

9 hours ago, tek1972 said:

But it will also have less of an effect as SST'S warm

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

 

SSTs off the Atlantic need more ridging off the coast. Without that, we would have to rely on the ridging in the Southern US. Which tends to be limited in terms of movement. So this summer, we will probably have very limited heat, but lots of high humidity and thunderstorms. 

[dave0176]

So I guess we can expect 90s in September and October lol

[Rtd208]

4 minutes ago, dave0176 said:

So I guess we can expect 90s in September and October lol

90 on Christmas FTW

[CIK62]

Not a lot different from yesterday:

 

[ict1523]

Radar makes it seem like a few showers are moving through, but I’ve had steady to heavy rain for the last half hour at least around Newark.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

Extended winter weather and the resultant delayed spring makes it seem like allergy season is longer but I bet that it's about the same length just pushed out further. I know that it has been very moldy due to all of the moisture so that may be a factor for you also. 

yes the mold really kills me lol- I dont feel any allergies when it's dry and sunny, even though the pollen count is still high.  When does the pollen season end?  By Memorial Day weekend?  I figured it's been taking longer this year because of all the cool weather it's taking longer for the plants to pollinate!

If it doesn't stop raining I bet the mold season will never end lol.

 

[SACRUS]

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

20 minutes ago, ict1523 said:

Radar makes it seem like a few showers are moving through, but I’ve had steady to heavy rain for the last half hour at least around Newark.

Yup, it was just pouring on the UWS. That makes three days in a row with heavy rain. 

[forkyfork]

.29 so far today, .99 monday, 1.85 sat/sun

[495weatherguy]

11 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

.29 so far today, .99 monday, 1.85 sat/sun

What happened to the forecasted warmth?  

[dmillz25]

7 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

What happened to the forecasted warmth?  

Se murió .

[Ace]

9 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

What happened to the forecasted warmth?  

The forecasted warmth for this weekend/early next week is becoming more muted on the modeling. The Euro still likes a brief warmup though for Monday although nowhere near as intense/long in duration as what it showed previously. Areas to our west and south are gonna be the big winners for any warmth on Days 5-7. Modeling is honing in on warmth past Day 9-10 though. Delayed but not denied?

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

It’s pouring on the uws, rates are definitely heavier then what you would expect from the radar. Small droplet size with snow likely making it down the column pretty far before melting. 

[donsutherland1]

The recent strong shot of cold that has gripped the Middle Atlantic and New England regions is nearing an end. Readings will be notably warmer tomorrow across much of the region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around May 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.82°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4. However, some fluctuation to warm neutral conditions is possible for at least some time.

The SOI was -9.79 today.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.455. Periods when the AO has been at or below -1.500 during the first 10 days of May have typically coincided with readings that are 1.0°-2.5° below normal during the May 11-20 period. The average temperature during the May 11-20, 1981-2010 period was 62.3°. Previously, the modeled figure was as low as 57.3°, which was below what is typical during such patterns and implied a sharper rebound in temperatures toward the end of the period than shown on the guidance. Since then, the guidance has shifted in that direction. It continues to show temperatures reaching the upper 70s as far north as the northern Mid-Atlantic region in the latter part of the May 11-20 period.

On May 13, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 20.42 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat higher than the May 12-adjusted figure of 1.995.

Looking ahead, historic experience suggests that it remains very likely that May will see one or more days with high temperatures in the 80s as far north as New York City. Further, the EPS signal above to sometimes much above normal readings could be possible during the closing 10 days of May.

Overall, the sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance suggests that the probability of a warmer than normal May is approximately 51%.

[CIK62]

But 8 years is not a long enough time frame either.     Scoring was against the outdated 1981-2010 standard anyway.    

Why not just rate our winters against that of Moscow's or something like that.     Then we could be above normal virtually everyday of the winter,  that is, any day that is less than 20 degrees below our own standard.

Look,  no one is an expert here---helio-physicists  say look for 70% of the days this year to have a blank sun, if we are really in trouble.    Currently this year the number is in the upper 50% to 60% range.

[doncat]

2.48" here for last 3 days....1.42", 0.79", and 0.27".

[weatherpruf]

21 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I lost two cucumber plants so far. Other plants like eggplant are in shock. Tomatoes which are so strong they are basically weeds are static. We’ll see what’s alive by Wednesday 

Tomatoes, despite being tropical plants, can really take a hit and bounce back. I've chopped them in half and they've grown back. But eggplants and peppers are finished. Might as well replant once the soil dries out.

[Juliancolton]

4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Tomatoes, despite being tropical plants, can really take a hit and bounce back. I've chopped them in half and they've grown back. But eggplants and peppers are finished. Might as well replant once the soil dries out.

The USSR really revolutionized the tomato crop by putting so much effort into breeding varities that could tolerate cool weather and other environmental stresses. We have them to thank for most of the heirlooms available to US home growers now. 

[weatherpruf]

13 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

We really need to dry out. I swear to God the first person to mention drought when we have our first 7 day dry spell should be put in timeout. This pattern just reminds me why spring is the worst season. Gray, damp, and allergies. People always look at me like I’m nuts but I love winter and summer. Even this winter had more hours of sunshine I feel than this spring. 

Fall can be really nice....sunny days with full foliage colors, the water temps are warm for fishing, and it isn't hot. 

[weatherpruf]

4 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

The USSR really revolutionized the tomato crop by putting so much effort into breeding varities that could tolerate cool weather and other environmental stresses. We have them to thank for most of the heirlooms available to US home growers now. 

Rutgers did a lot to develop tomatoes too, and developed a super asparagus.

[weatherpruf]

32 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Tomatoes, despite being tropical plants, can really take a hit and bounce back. I've chopped them in half and they've grown back. But eggplants and peppers are finished. Might as well replant once the soil dries out.

Speaking of weeds, the cold hasn't bothered the knotweed, the invasive plant from  Japan, which makes kudzu look quaint.....it nearly took over the Bronx River area. In the UK they won't even issue you a mortgage if the stuff is found in your yard. Have you seen it? You bet. Go down to any local stream, you'll see the banks covered with it. The roots can be the extent of a football field; they can grow up through foundations. Like something outta Dr. Who....

[JustinRP37]

58 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

But 8 years is not a long enough time frame either.     Scoring was against the outdated 1981-2010 standard anyway.    

Why not just rate our winters against that of Moscow's or something like that.     Then we could be above normal virtually everyday of the winter,  that is, any day that is less than 20 degrees below our own standard.

Look,  no one is an expert here---helio-physicists  say look for 70% of the days this year to have a blank sun, if we are really in trouble.    Currently this year the number is in the upper 50% to 60% range.

What is 8 years? 1981-2010 is thirty years. We can also look much further back than that. Climatologists do not use the 1981-2010 standard. And that standard would only be outdated because we are warmer consistently than it was. Go back even further and we are even warmer than that. Our current sunspotless percentage this year is 56%, in 2008-2009 we were well in the 70% range. That has also been debunked. We had many years even in the past, with days without sunspots into the 70-80% range. This spring is not an indication that we are now suddenly in a cooling period. It hasn't even been that much cooler relative to normal except for this past week. Our temperatures do show a warming trend starting tomorrow back to average. 

[weatherpruf]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Might have a 1996 kind of summer.

Your view on seasonal allergies- has the excessive rainfall the last two years lengthened the allergy season?  They were never this bad or this long in the early part of the decade- or ever before for that matter.

 

Worst summer ever. But it came after a blockbuster winter at least, one of the greats. But summer? Couldn't even go for a swim, water was too cold.

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.48" of rain for the day yesterday, three day storm total rainfall 2.13"

Current temp 47

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 64.5degs., or 1deg. AN.

Month to date is  -2.8[57.2].      Should be -1.4[59.8], by the 23rd.

46.5* here at 6am, and no APB needed to find the sun.

[ForestHillWx]

Beautiful morning. Sunny and 41. 

[etudiant]

9 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Speaking of weeds, the cold hasn't bothered the knotweed, the invasive plant from  Japan, which makes kudzu look quaint.....it nearly took over the Bronx River area. In the UK they won't even issue you a mortgage if the stuff is found in your yard. Have you seen it? You bet. Go down to any local stream, you'll see the banks covered with it. The roots can be the extent of a football field; they can grow up through foundations. Like something outta Dr. Who....

Sounds like a plant farmers would love if it actually offered something useful. Maybe the genetic engineers could help the knotweed grow bigger seedpods or something.

[donsutherland1]

Yesterday, White Plains had a high temperature of 49°. That was the second consecutive sub-50° high temperature in May. That ties the record for most consecutive days at White Plains (where records go back to 1949). The last time White Plains had two consecutive such days was May 4-5, 1987 when the high temperature was 49° on each day.

[the_other_guy]

After the miserable heat/humidity last summer, sign me up for a 96 summer this year!

That was a cool spring that finally popped around Mem Day, correct?

The AC was on 2 or 3 times the whole summer.