Rtd208 Posted May 13, 2019 Author Share Posted May 13, 2019 Picked up 0.24" of rain so far today. Current temp 47 w/rain falling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: i think it's going to trend warmer again with a pacific pattern like this: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 8 minutes ago, forkyfork said: If that's accurate then we'll be seeing our first 90F soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 Just now, SnoSki14 said: If that's accurate then we'll be seeing our first 90F soon. Just in time for Memorial Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: islip's average for the month so far is exactly normal. you'd think it was -5 with all the posts like this. we've gotten so used to above normal that average feels cold All the clouds, rain, and easterly flow muted the high temperatures this spring so far. A 71 degree max by May 10th is the 2nd coldest on record. People don’t really notice the warmer minimums this time of year. But they do during the summer with day after day of mins above 70 and not being able to open the windows at night. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Mar 1 to May 13 Missing Count 1 1984-05-13 69 0 - 1978-05-13 69 0 2 2019-05-13 71 1 - 1995-05-13 71 0 3 1988-05-13 72 0 - 1966-05-13 72 0 4 1989-05-13 73 0 - 1968-05-13 73 0 5 1992-05-13 75 0 - 1975-05-13 75 1 - 1969-05-13 75 0 6 1997-05-13 76 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 34 minutes ago, TriPol said: Just in time for Memorial Day. Hopefully it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the more impressive warmth got pushed back by a day or two into early next week. That Pacific fire hose looks like the real deal. we would eventually get a good severe event in that pattern 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 13, 2019 Author Share Posted May 13, 2019 Looks like both Mt.Holly and Upton are starting to hint at the potential for warmer/hotter temps over the weekend and beyond per their discussions. Temps should rebound nicely starting Wednesday with temps in the 60's working their way into the 70's and possibly 80's as we head into the weekend and early next week. Hopefully we are finally turning the corner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 I hope they're right. I'd sure like to see a nice day on Friday. I need to be in central PA for a mt bike festival and it's all day outside. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 There are actual some beaks of sun into EPA after the rain moves through 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 most of the rain missing the coast, dry slot came in here and the stuff behind looks showery at best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 Raining moderately here...up to 0.61" for day to go with 1.43" yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tek1972 Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 most of the rain missing the coast, dry slot came in here and the stuff behind looks showery at best.Definitely not the pouring rain that was predicted this evening, not that it makes much differenceSent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 29 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Looks like both Mt.Holly and Upton are starting to hint at the potential for warmer/hotter temps over the weekend and beyond per their discussions. Temps should rebound nicely starting Wednesday with temps in the 60's working their way into the 70's and possibly 80's as we head into the weekend and early next week. Hopefully we are finally turning the corner. It's gonna be hard to sustain anything in this pattern. It's more likely that the warm-up is just a temporary break from what we've seen. Models could also trend cooler too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 1 minute ago, tek1972 said: Definitely not the pouring rain that was predicted this evening, not that it makes much difference Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk yeah agree-it's still wet, but we certainly didn't need 2-3 inches like some models had a couple days ago.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 The max in NYC so far today is 48...the record low max is 49 set in 1914...it was in the mid 90's two weeks later in 1914...I would not mind that happening again...1914 was not a hot summer but its hottest temperatures came in late May and around the first day of fall... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 9 minutes ago, uncle W said: The max in NYC so far today is 48...the record low max is 49 set in 1914...it was in the mid 90's two weeks later in 1914...I would not mind that happening again...1914 was not a hot summer but its hottest temperatures came in late May and around the first day of fall... Continuation of the more impressive low maxes than minimums pattern. TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 48 259 PM 89 1956 70 -22 54 MINIMUM 42 313 AM 39 1895 53 -11 52 AVERAGE 45 62 -17 53 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishmick9 Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 Sun poking out in Morristown with mod rain...did not expect to see any sun today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Byrdhousebv Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 T-47 .77" so far today after 1.96" yesterday. Light to moderate rain continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 3 hours ago, forkyfork said: anything to get rid of this pollen lol. Hot and dry in June would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 25 minutes ago, uncle W said: The max in NYC so far today is 48...the record low max is 49 set in 1914...it was in the mid 90's two weeks later in 1914...I would not mind that happening again...1914 was not a hot summer but its hottest temperatures came in late May and around the first day of fall... that reminds me of 1996. Remember we had snow in the Poconos on May 13 and a heavy frost on Long Island on May 14 and then a week later we were near 100 two days in a row lol. It only hit 90 one more time- in late August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, probably the Plains first and then eventually East. This raging Pacific Jet since the fall has been amazing. The snow lovers hope that it lets up before next winter. https://mobile.twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/1126559786412183552 Interesting to see the density of #winter storm tracks through the Plains, upper Midwest, generally matching impressive season departure from average #snow totals along and to the north of those tracks, per analysis from I'm not even thinking about snow right now lol although it's falling in New England and in the Catskills (also heard there was snow this morning in South Boston?) I would accept 5 below normal snowfall seasons in a row just to get one summer like 2010 again. I guess all those climate models that predicted an average of 3 100 degree days per summer by 2050 for NYC were wrong? Instead we'll have 50+ inches of rain every year with temps in the upper 80s, a true tropical rain forest climate complete with tropical diseases and tropical bugs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 Good for about 25-30 degrees, from lowest temperature to highest temperature over the next two weeks. Not very impressive {45-75), plus wind direction will have to be modeled correctly to get this [else BDCF}, unless this is already part of above calculation by the model. Then the 80's would be possible if model is wrong, and 75 is the worst we will do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 31 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: yeah agree-it's still wet, but we certainly didn't need 2-3 inches like some models had a couple days ago.... Imagine if this happened in the winter with snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 Only topped at 48 today. Haven't seen it this cold in May since 2009 in NEPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 0.74” for the day, 2.06” including yesterday. Topped out at 50 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 2.20" event total, still a bit more to go, hi temp of 48°....Another rain storm that didn't disappoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 3 hours ago, tek1972 said: Definitely not the pouring rain that was predicted this evening, not that it makes much difference Between 6:30-7:15 it absolutely poured between Brewster and Danbury. The windshield wipers were barely keeping up and the water on the roads was easily 1/2" deep. Everything is thoroughly saturated, the lower half of my yard is standing water and deep mud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 Today, Central Park recorded a temperature of 42°. That was the coldest reading this late in the season since May 14, 2013 when the temperature also fell to 42°. Central Park also registered a high temperature of 48°, which set a new daily record low maximum temperature. That was the first sub-50° maximum temperature in May since May 12, 2010 when the temperature also peaked at 48°. Today was also only the 3rd day in May with a high temperature below 50° since 1980. LaGuardia Airport also reached 42°, which set a new daily record low temperature. The old record was 45°, which was set in 1998. May 13: Record Low Maximum Temperatures: Islip: 51° (tied record set in 2002 and tied in 2017) New York City-JFK: 49° (old record: 53°, 2017) New York City-LGA: 50° (old record: 55°, 2017) New York City-NYC: 48° (old record: 49°, 1914) Newark: 50° (tied record set in 1931) Poughkeepsie: 49° (old record: 52°, 2002 and 2017) The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around May 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.82°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4. However, some fluctuation to warm neutral conditions is possible for at least some time. The SOI was -14.15 today. Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.698. Periods when the AO has been at or below -1.500 during the first 10 days of May have typically coincided with readings that are 1.0°-2.5° below normal during the May 11-20 period. The average temperature during the May 11-20, 1981-2010 period was 62.3°. Previously, the modeled figure was as low as 57.3°, which was below what is typical during such patterns and implied a sharper rebound in temperatures toward the end of the period than shown on the guidance. Since then, the guidance has shifted in that direction. It continues to show temperatures reaching the upper 70s as far north as the northern Mid-Atlantic region in the latter part of the May 11-20 period. Overall, the sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance suggests that the probability of a warmer than normal May has now increased to 51%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 8.50" rain here past 30 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now