SACRUS Posted May 11, 2019 Share Posted May 11, 2019 Clouds building in quickly from the south but a gorgeous spring day . Up to 71 here now 68 and overcast. 72 hours of muck and ugliness ahead as the pendulum swings back cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 11, 2019 Share Posted May 11, 2019 This pattern keeps reinforcing the sharp SST departure gradient along 40N in the Atlantic. Last year at this time it was further north when we had the record heat in early May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 11, 2019 Share Posted May 11, 2019 Bye sun, was nice seeing you for a while 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 11, 2019 Share Posted May 11, 2019 Under bright sunshine, the temperature rose into the upper 60s at the New York Botanical Garden this afternoon. However, much cooler weather lies just ahead. Four photos from this afternoon: 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 The Arctic Oscillation has now been at or below -1.500 for five consecutive days. As a result of the current strong Atlantic blocking, a period of cooler than normal weather lies ahead for a portion of next week starting tomorrow. Precipitation could also be above normal across the region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around May 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.90°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4. The SOI was -22.50 today. Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.566. The AO is forecast to go through an extended period where it is in the negative phase. Periods when the AO has been at or below -1.500 during the first 10 days of May have typically coincided with readings that are 1.0°-2.5° below normal during the May 11-20 period. The average temperature during the May 11-20, 1981-2010 period was 62.3°. The current forecast average is 58.7° (yesterday's figure was 57.3°), which is somewhat below what is typical during such patterns. Therefore, a sharper rebound in temperatures may be likely toward than end of that period than is presently modeled. Overall, the sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance suggests that the probability of a warmer than normal May has decreased to around 40%. However, since 2000, only May 2003 and May 2005 had monthly maximum temperatures below 80°. Both had monthly maximum temperatures of 79°. The probability of May 2019 finishing with such a low maximum temperature is low despite the current guidance. That also implies possible warmth that exceeds what is modeled toward the end of the month if the historical data is representative. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 May 2019's max is 78 so far...I think May will have a warmer day than 78 when all is said and done... coldest monthly maximum... 75 in 1924 79 in 2005 79 in 2003 79 in 1983 79 in 1928 79 in 1927 79 in 1915 80 in 1968 80 in 1882 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 the warmest temperature for a year before the 1st of June is 75 set in 1924... 75 in 1924 80 in 1882 80 in 1928 81 in 1967+ other years... most 90 degree days before June 1st... 5 in 1939 5 in 1991 4 in 1936 4 in 1965 4 in 1987 4 in 1896 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 Nam is ridiculously chilly Sunday afternoon. Only has low to mid 40s with rain and gusty winds. Monday could see a max temp under 50F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 52 with showers here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 windy as hell here in yonkers. moderate rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 Next 8 days averaging 58degs., or 4.5degs. BN. Month to date is. +0.2[59.7]. Should be -1.9[59.0] by the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 Quote NYC finally got into the 40's this morning...was 48 the last hour...the record high min for May is 49 so that record still stands... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 lovely morning... time to use the winter coat to go outside been a while... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 39 minutes ago, bluewave said: Next weekend we are going to play the next round of how far north will the warm front get.The golf fans at the PGA championship in Bethpage are rooting for the Euro. But these frontal locations a week out can change from run to run. One thing is for sure, the warm sector south of the front will probably make a run on 90. You think the Euro has the right idea, with the trend and tendency for the very deep - AO and -NAO even out in the future. I tend to put more weight in the Euro's outcomes most times, but not so sure this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 Just now, bluewave said: The warm front gets very close to the area on the EPS mean. You can see the Bermuda high dueling with the Canadian high. So we may have to wait a few days to see how far north the warm front can get. Looks like a good bet that at least areas of the Mid-Atlantic will make a run in 90 . @bluewave do you have any idea or have seen any research that you can recall at which point does the above normal SW Atlantic SSTs begin to influence the general pattern near the SE and the MidAtlantic ? Leading to more consistent warmer weather and even over-whelming the pattern as it manifests to a powerful WAR supported in part, by the wamer waters which seem to be increasing. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 48 and rainy in midtown Manhattan quite a dreary day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 29 minutes ago, frd said: @bluewave do you have any idea or have seen any research that you can recall at which point does the above normal SW Atlantic SSTs begin to influence the general pattern near the SE and the MidAtlantic ? Leading to more consistent warmer weather and even over-whelming the pattern as it manifests to a powerful WAR supported in part, by the wamer waters which seem to be increasing. Thanks You can see the highest number of above normal months this decade are near the warmer SST departures. A ring of more months with warm departures along the East Coast, Gulf, and West Coasts. Lower number over The Central US furthest away from any marine influences. https://mobile.twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1126228312353722368 https://mobile.twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1126293596909367301 https://mobile.twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1126296962410508289 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Byrdhousebv Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 T 48, down from 54 at midnight. 1.1 inches rain so far. Drizzle/light rain at present. Eastern Monmouth Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 47 degrees with 0.62" rain so far... Midnight temp of 56 will be todays high...Monthly temps should show a solid negative departure after Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 NYC had a max of 48 on this date in 2010...the record is 47 set in 1882...tomorrows record low max is 49 set in 1914...temps hit the mid 90's later that month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 12, 2019 Author Share Posted May 12, 2019 Picked up 0.39" of rain so far today Current temp 48 w/rain falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 what a miserable day it is outside this morning.. my umbrella broke i got soaking wet.. i think i may be catching a cold.. i love this weather!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 12, 2019 Author Share Posted May 12, 2019 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Next weekend we are going to play the next round of how far north will the warm front get.The golf fans at the PGA championship in Bethpage are rooting for the Euro. But these frontal locations a week out can change from run to run. One thing is for sure, the warm sector south of the front will probably make a run on 90. That looks like it would be low to mid 80's for the NYC metro according to that map. I am so ready for that but once again like your mentioned it will depend on how far north the warm front makes it. This raw/chilly/rainy weather is for the birds, I would rather have warm temps w/thunderstorms over this stuff any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 47 with heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 I think we get some heat after the negative ao and nao breaks down...both are forecast to be negative for a while... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 12 minutes ago, uncle W said: I think we get some heat after the negative ao and nao breaks down...both are forecast to be negative for a while... 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The warm front gets very close to the area on the EPS mean. You can see the Bermuda high dueling with the Canadian high. So we may have to wait a few days to see how far north the warm front can get. Looks like a good bet that at least areas of the Mid-Atlantic will make a run on 90. What do you think the odds are that we do have summer like weather for next weeks golf tournament at Bethpage? We haven’t had much nice weather so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 1 minute ago, 495weatherguy said: What do you think the odds are that we do have summer like weather for next weeks golf tournament at Bethpage? We haven’t had much nice weather so far I think it's a good thing it wasn't this week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 9 minutes ago, uncle W said: I think it's a good thing it wasn't this week... It’s a big deal to a lot of businesses in the area. I’m sure they would all agree with you on that. Hopeful that the weather becomes favorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 0.75” so far....46 degrees. Bottomed out at 45, lowest temp so far this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 59 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: What do you think the odds are that we do have summer like weather for next weeks golf tournament at Bethpage? We haven’t had much nice weather so far Headed there on Thursday. Hoping for a nice day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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