May 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[JerseyWx]

9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Don't worry.  Soon it will be 90s with 70 dews and we won't be able to do anything outdoors then either except swim

You're probably right.  I adapted to that last summer though and would take it over this.

[FPizz]

2 hours ago, 495weatherguy said:

I guess your spring has been much like ours---south and west jersey seems to have been enjoying a much better spring.  I could be wrong however

Being in the western half of NJ, I can agree with this.  It hasn't been too bad.  It has been very cloudy, but not nearly as wet or as cool as you guys to the E. 

[bluewave]

All the clouds and rain resulted in the coolest spring high temperature at places like Newark by May 3rd since 2000. 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Highest Max Temperature Mar 1 to May 3	Missing Count
2019-05-03	80	1
2018-05-03	94	0
2017-05-03	87	0
2016-05-03	83	0
2015-05-03	82	0
2014-05-03	83	0
2013-05-03	85	0
2012-05-03	88	0
2011-05-03	87	0
2010-05-03	92	0
2009-05-03	93	0
2008-05-03	82	0
2007-05-03	86	0
2006-05-03	83	0
2005-05-03	88	0
2004-05-03	88	0
2003-05-03	88	0
2002-05-03	97	0
2001-05-03	92	0
2000-05-03	78	0

[CIK62]

7 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

How? The numbers aren't adding up.

I use the 00Z GFSx  each morning.    The 12Z has lower numbers for what is virtually the same timeframe.   Blame the model.     Verification is low because models not dealing with the warming event in the stratosphere properly.

[MJO812]

49 and cloudy here

[SRRTA22]

3k NAM quite bullish on strong elevated tstorms later tonight. Sounding has 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE at 04z

[Rtd208]

30 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

3k NAM quite bullish on strong elevated tstorms later tonight. Sounding has 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE at 04z

 

[bluewave]

14 consecutive days now with measurable  rain at ISP. This beats the previous NYC metro record of 13 days at Newark in August 2003.

 

Number of Consecutive Days Precipitation >= .01 
for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
1	14	2019-05-03

 

Number of Consecutive Days Precipitation >= .01 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
1	13	2003-08-12

 

Number of Consecutive Days Precipitation >= .01 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
1	12	2003-08-11

[psv88]

Torrential rain now

[495weatherguy]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

14 consecutive days now with measurable  rain at ISP. This beats the previous NYC metro record of 13 days at Newark in August 2003.

 

Number of Consecutive Days Precipitation >= .01 
for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
1	14	2019-05-03

 

Number of Consecutive Days Precipitation >= .01 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
1	13	2003-08-12

 

Number of Consecutive Days Precipitation >= .01 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
1	12	2003-08-11

One of the most remarkable stats--this weather has been depressing

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

One of the most remarkable stats--this weather has been depressing

At least the Pacific Northwest record of 47 days looks safe.

Number of Consecutive Days Precipitation >= .01 
for QUILLAYUTE STATE AIRPORT, WA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
1	47	1990-12-18

[495weatherguy]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

At least the Pacific Northwest record of 47 days looks safe.

Number of Consecutive Days Precipitation >= .01 
for QUILLAYUTE STATE AIRPORT, WA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
1	47	1990-12-18

Wow! A record no one wants

[donsutherland1]

Cooler conditions with some drizzle returned today as a front sagged south of the region. A few showers are likely tonight into tomorrow morning as a front pushes across the area. Afterward, partial sunshine could return for a time with readings rising into the middle and upper 60s.

A storm will likely track south of the region tomorrow night and Sunday. As a result, the New York City area and nearby suburbs will likely pick up 0.25"-0.75" rain with some locally higher amounts. A swath of 0.50"-1.00" rainfall with some higher amounts is likely farther south, including Atlantic City, Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. The implied probability of New York City's picking up 1.00" or more rain from this system are just under 30%.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.93°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4.

The SOI was +0.02 today.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.417.

On May 2, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.666 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat lower than the May 1-adjusted figure of 1.898.

Since 1974, there were four cases when the MJO reached an amplitude of 1.750 or above during Phase 2 during the April 20-30 period. The mean May 1-10 temperature was 58.8° vs. the 1981-2018 average of 60.2°. 75% of those cases were cooler than the 1981-2018 average. However, during May cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.50°C or above for the month, the May 1-10 temperature averaged 60.8°. Therefore, it is likely that the first 10 days of May will probably wind up with a mean temperature of 59.2°-61.2°.

[purduewx80]

8 hours ago, SRRTA22 said:

3k NAM quite bullish on strong elevated tstorms later tonight. Sounding has 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE at 04z

the 00Z OKX sounding came in just shy of that.  it looks like the incoming mesoscale convective vortex will use every bit of that to produce a stripe of heavy rain and embedded storms. new cells developing S-SW of the city now.

[LIWeatherGuy29]

Some thunder and lightning with heavy rain here.

[Cfa]

Biggest rumble of thunder just ripped right overhead, out of nowhere. I wasn’t even expecting storms. Scared the hell out of everyone.

[ForestHillWx]

Agreed. Storms blew up over the house. Pretty impressive lightning/thunder and rain. 

[uofmiami]

I’m getting some huge house shaking claps of thunder here in Syosset.  Heavy rains finally started too. 

[psv88]

7 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

I’m getting some huge house shaking claps of thunder here in Syosset.  Heavy rains finally started too. 

Getting rocked here

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Missing the rain right here near the bay as per usual. Getting some thunder and flashes though

 

[NorthShoreWx]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

14 consecutive days now with measurable  rain at ISP. This beats the previous NYC metro record of 13 days at Newark in August 2003.

 

Number of Consecutive Days Precipitation >= .01 
for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
1	14	2019-05-03

 

Number of Consecutive Days Precipitation >= .01 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
1	13	2003-08-12

 

Number of Consecutive Days Precipitation >= .01 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
1	12	2003-08-11

15 days now.  I was wondering if this was just my imagination.  Except for Thursday, we can't buy a 60 degree day here.  Pouring with lots of thunder at the moment.  With the rain the temperature has risen from 47 to 50.

[L.I.Pete]

Thunder in Port Jeff. Torrential rain for a minute.

[psv88]

Pretty good storm. 4 or 5 very close strikes and torrential rains. 

[CIK62]

Next 8 days are averaging 60degs., or just NORMAL.

[doncat]

No rain here overnight and just  0.02" yesterday.

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

15 days now.  I was wondering if this was just my imagination.  Except for Thursday, we can't buy a 60 degree day here.  Pouring with lots of thunder at the moment.  With the rain the temperature has risen from 47 to 50.

ISP recorded at least a T of rain every day since April 12th. Today was day 23 so far.

2019-04-12	63	44	53.5	5.5	11	0	0.21	0.0	0
2019-04-13	66	53	59.5	11.2	5	0	0.70	0.0	0
2019-04-14	64	51	57.5	8.8	7	0	0.04	0.0	0
2019-04-15	63	44	53.5	4.5	11	0	0.75	0.0	0
2019-04-16	63	42	52.5	3.2	12	0	T	0.0	0
2019-04-17	58	46	52.0	2.3	13	0	0.02	0.0	0
2019-04-18	59	49	54.0	4.0	11	0	T	0.0	0
2019-04-19	67	55	61.0	10.7	4	0	T	0.0	0
2019-04-20	63	56	59.5	8.9	5	0	0.61	0.0	0
2019-04-21	61	49	55.0	4.0	10	0	0.06	0.0	0
2019-04-22	61	47	54.0	2.7	11	0	0.93	0.0	0
2019-04-23	71	56	63.5	11.9	1	0	0.03	0.0	0
2019-04-24	68	51	59.5	7.6	5	0	0.03	0.0	0
2019-04-25	61	46	53.5	1.3	11	0	0.03	0.0	0
2019-04-26	60	52	56.0	3.5	9	0	1.37	0.0	0
2019-04-27	59	46	52.5	-0.3	12	0	0.06	0.0	0
2019-04-28	54	44	49.0	-4.2	16	0	0.02	0.0	0
2019-04-29	57	40	48.5	-5.0	16	0	0.05	0.0	0
2019-04-30	58	47	52.5	-1.3	12	0	0.21	0.0	0

2019-05-01	53	45	49.0	-5.1	16	0	0.01	0.0	0
2019-05-02	71	49	60.0	5.6	5	0	0.01	0.0	0
2019-05-03	56	48	52.0	-2.7	13	0	0.37	0.0	0

[Brian5671]

Peeks of sun here.    .15 last night.   London like pattern continues....

[golfer07840]

0 sun here in NW NJ, had a big pouring rain with house shaking thunder around 12:30 am. 

More rain expected later today and 8 out of the next 10 days. 

Lovely 

 

[Brian5671]

partly sunny here now and 60--might sneak out a few hours of decent weather

[SACRUS]

Maybe two partly to mostly sunny days Mon/Tue and the next shot at 80s on tues but then back to the muck/clouds Wed and beyond.   D 9-10 (5/14-15) of ECM dropping trough into the NE.