May 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[Dan76]

Yup   http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/GOES_NE/loop60.html

[doncat]

Temp down 14° past hour to 61°.

[Rtd208]

Not sure I completely agree with this.

https://www.nj.com/news/2019/05/nj-weather-early-summer-forecast-is-looking-bright-hot-and-not-too-wet.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=njcom_sf&utm_content=nj_facebook_njcom&fbclid=IwAR0ydY49NDQLbKFPJuuFmRwrbV_gzDINWH-qIl28XPAzCT1FxXtJVvge1Yo&fbclid=IwAR15sylp-RJKKECr8ycRLarIv_K9kL05DpWI_Xvpkwlm6m8D3R8Av7h_hn8

[forkyfork]

tumbling 

[MJO812]

54 here

[bluewave]

The 12z Euro continues wetter than normal for a least the next 7 days. The frontal boundary keeps going north and south of the area with waves of low pressure. Warmer days like today when the warm front lifts north. With cooler days in the mix when the backdoors drop to our south. Pretty impressive duel between the strong -NAO Greenland block and the WAR.

[495weatherguy]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Euro continues wetter than normal for a least the next 7 days. The frontal boundary keeps going north and south of the areas with waves of low pressure. Warmer days like today when the warm front lifts north. With cooler days in the mix when the backdoors drop to our south. Pretty impressive duel between the strong -NAO Greenland block and the WAR.

Is this the price we pay for the Greenland block being late this year?  Had this been 3/4 months earlier people would have been thrilled with winter

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Is this the price we pay for the Greenland block being late this year?  Had this been 3/4 months earlier people would have been thrilled with winter

This looks it will continue to be our latest version of 2010’s stuck weather patterns.

 

[SnoSki14]

A -NAO going into the summer can be a precursor to extreme heat due to shifting wavelengths. 

But for May & possibly June it'll mean some stormy weather with hot/cool intervals.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Where’s all the rain? Still waiting on the uws. Holding off on watering some new plants.

[psv88]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Where’s all the rain? Still waiting on the uws. Holding off on watering some new plants.

Pouring here 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

11 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Pouring here 

Yeah it it was just pouring on the uws. If we are going to have all this cool and cloudy weather we might as well have the rain to go with it

[purduewx80]

no shortage of rain the next few days. after this evening's showers, there may be another round in the area late tomorrow morning, followed by weakening convection late tomorrow night. 

sunday's system has seen numerous pieces of guidance trend towards the more northern system the euro has had for a number of runs now, as the west atlantic ridge continues to flex. there is still considerable spread (as indicated in the gefs guidance below), but a heavy rain event would appear to be a growing possibility sunday morning. the 18z euro pegs widespread 1-2" amounts in a true nor'easter, while the 18z gefs mean is up to 1.17". 

[donsutherland1]

Earlier today, the temperature surged well into the 70s from New York City southward and into the 80s across southern parts of the Mid-Atlantic region. High temperatures included:

Baltimore: 88°; Islip: 71°; New York City: 78°; Newark: 78°; Philadelphia: 83°; Richmond: 88°; and, Washington, DC: 87°.

With the frontal boundary's having pushed southward, a cooler day with readings in the upper 50s and lower 60s is likely across the northern Mid-Atlantic region tomorrow. However, readings in the 80s are still likely from Baltimore southward.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.93°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4.

The continuation of El Niño conditions increases prospects for warm anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas.

During the 1981-2018 period, monthly mean temperature differences between cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.50°C or above and climatology were as follows:

Boston: 59.0° vs. 58.5° for climatology
New York City: 63.9° vs. 63.1° for climatology
Philadelphia: 65.2° vs. 64.3° for climatology
Washington, DC: 67.5° vs. 66.6° for climatology

The SOI was +11.74 today.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.107.

On May 1, the MJO moved into Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.900 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat higher than the April 30-adjusted figure of 1.843.

Since 1974, there were four cases when the MJO reached an amplitude of 1.750 or above during Phase 2 during the April 20-30 period. The mean May 1-10 temperature was 58.8° vs. the 1981-2018 average of 60.2°. 75% of those cases were cooler than the 1981-2018 average. However, during May cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.50°C or above for the month, the May 1-10 temperature averaged 60.8°. Therefore, it is likely that the first 10 days of May will probably wind up with a mean temperature of 59.2°-61.2°. The latest guidance has turned much warmer than the recent guidance. It now shows a mean temperature around 61.9°. That's somewhat above the range suggested by historical experience, so some cooling in the subsequent guidance is possible.

Overall, May looks to be warmer than normal and wetter than normal. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of a warmer than normal month is currently 54%.

[CIK62]

Next 8 days are averaging 64degs., or about 5degs. AN.

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days are averaging 64degs., or about 5degs. AN.

How? The numbers aren't adding up.

[MJO812]

Wet pattern continues on the Gfs

[doncat]

We were using our ac's a year ago on this date with temps in the 90's for many of us....93° here.

[psv88]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

How? The numbers aren't adding up.

Warm mins 

[bluewave]

Islip keeping the historic rainy day streak going at 13.

Number of Consecutive Days Precipitation >= .01 
for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
Last value also occurred in one or more previous years.
Period of record: 1963-09-05 to 2019-05-02
1	13	2019-05-02
2	9	1969-11-10
3	8	2003-01-06
-	8	2000-05-25
-	8	1998-05-11
-	8	1986-02-21
-	8	1978-08-07
4	7	2018-09-12
-	7	2014-12-11
-	7	2009-05-07

[golfer07840]

22 hours ago, 495weatherguy said:

Perhaps the weather in NJ has been different from the weather on LI.  It has been very wet and dreary

I'm in NW NJ and it has been cool, dreary and wet. 

[SACRUS]

EWR Normal (avg)

High/Low

5/3: 68/49 (59)
5/4: 69 50 (59)     
5/5: 69 50 (59)     
5/6:  69 50 (60)      
5/7:  69 51 (60)     
5/8:  70 51 (60)     
5/9:  70 51 (61) 
5/10: 70 51 (61)

Forecast;

5/3: 61/55
5/4: 71/55
5/5:  62/51
5/6: 71/54
5/7: 74/58
5/8:  73/57
5/9: 71/60
5/10: 74/59

 

[495weatherguy]

7 minutes ago, golfer07840 said:

I'm in NW NJ and it has been cool, dreary and wet. 

I guess your spring has been much like ours---south and west jersey seems to have been enjoying a much better spring.  I could be wrong however

[SACRUS]

4 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

I guess your spring has been much like ours---south and west jersey seems to have been enjoying a much better spring.  I could be wrong however

certainly much improves as you travel southwest by 25 mile clicks the last 2 weeks especially. I do think Saturday if enough sun makes it through could be similar to Thursday with temps well into the 70s and even some 80s SW.  But clouds the caveat.

[golfer07840]

4 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

I guess your spring has been much like ours---south and west jersey seems to have been enjoying a much better spring.  I could be wrong however

Sunny days so far, have seemed very far and few between. And as someone who likes to be outside and despises cold weather, so far, the spring has been blah. 

[Eduardo]

This is actually the worst spring I can remember here on the south shore of LI.  I feel like it’s actually begun to affect my mood.

 

Also, is it just me, or does optimal winter patterns setting in a few months too late seem to be a consistent theme over the past few years?  I feel like the NAO tends to wait until springtime to tank.

[JerseyWx]

7 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

This is actually the worst spring I can remember here on the south shore of LI.  I feel like it’s actually begun to affect my mood.

 

Also, is it just me, or does optimal winter patterns setting in a few months too late seem to be a consistent theme over the past few years?  I feel like the NAO tends to wait until springtime to tank.

Absolutely, and next week looks like even more rain.  I'm an outdoors person and have very little free time, so it's outright depressing when you're stuck in the house.

[495weatherguy]

1 hour ago, golfer07840 said:

Sunny days so far, have seemed very far and few between. And as someone who likes to be outside and despises cold weather, so far, the spring has been blah. 

I agree with everything you said!  Sunny days are rare.   And this chilly weather is awful

[Stormlover74]

12 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Absolutely, and next week looks like even more rain.  I'm an outdoors person and have very little free time, so it's outright depressing when you're stuck in the house.

Don't worry.  Soon it will be 90s with 70 dews and we won't be able to do anything outdoors then either except swim

[doncat]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Don't worry.  Soon it will be 90s with 70 dews and we won't be able to do anything outdoors then either except swim

Then they'll  complain about that constantly  lol.