Brian5671 Posted May 1, 2019 Share Posted May 1, 2019 16 minutes ago, psv88 said: This pattern is awful. Make it stop close the shades for about a week, it's not going anywhere. (although looks like thursday could surprise) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 1, 2019 Share Posted May 1, 2019 51 minutes ago, psv88 said: This pattern is awful. Make it stop We just had a top 10 warmest month in April and the rains haven't been that bad. It was near normal for most of NJ. Sounds like a very warm, average precip spring to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted May 1, 2019 Share Posted May 1, 2019 20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: We just had a top 10 warmest month in April and the rains haven't been that bad. It was near normal for most of NJ. Sounds like a very warm, average precip spring to me. I believe it was 19 days we had rain. Cloudy almost all the time except on random week days. Warm weather was almost always accompanied by rain, at least here in CT. Now it’s May 1st and I’m debating turning on the heat. Can’t say I was a fan of April. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 1, 2019 Share Posted May 1, 2019 2 hours ago, psv88 said: This pattern is awful. Make it stop I agree, brutal. The only silver lining is that it’s great for lawns and perennials. I haven’t had to worry about watering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted May 1, 2019 Share Posted May 1, 2019 We're getting screwed out of mud reduction season this year Usually as the trees leaf out and the undergrowth comes up the surface soil moisture drops and the forest (and my yard) become more accessible but the frequent rain and lack of bright sunny days after a wet winter have squashed that opportunity. The mosquitoes are also worse than last year at this same time because of that and all of the standing water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 1, 2019 Share Posted May 1, 2019 impressive temp drop tomorrow evening 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 1, 2019 Share Posted May 1, 2019 5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: We just had a top 10 warmest month in April and the rains haven't been that bad. It was near normal for most of NJ. Sounds like a very warm, average precip spring to me. We have set records for the most days of rain in any month ever Almost no sunny days. Thats horrendous. Its like saying a below normal January wasnt bad even though it was cold and dry... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 1, 2019 Share Posted May 1, 2019 Very wet pattern continuing on the 12z Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 1, 2019 Author Share Posted May 1, 2019 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Very wet pattern continuing on the 12z Euro. Yeah the GFS has been hitting the rainfall pretty hard for us as well. Looks like a very wet period coming up from tomorrow into Sunday and beyond for that matter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 1, 2019 Share Posted May 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Yeah the GFS has been hitting the rainfall pretty hard for us as well. Looks like a very wet period coming up from tomorrow into Sunday and beyond for that matter. The warm fronts/backdoors go back and forth for the whole Op Euro 10 day run. So we get plenty of rainfall opportunities as a parade of storms ride along the frontal boundary through our area. Quite a duel between the the very strong Greenland block and lingering WAR pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 1, 2019 Author Share Posted May 1, 2019 1 minute ago, bluewave said: The warm fronts/backdoors go back and forth for the whole Op Euro 10 day run. So we get plenty of rainfall opportunities as a parade of storms ride along the frontal boundary through our area. Quite a duel between the the very strong Greenland block and lingering WAR pattern. Yeah Mt.Holly had a really good discussion this morning outlining all of the possibilities and uncertainties temp and precipitation wise especially for late week and the weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 5 hours ago, psv88 said: We have set records for the most days of rain in any month ever Almost no sunny days. Thats horrendous. Its like saying a below normal January wasnt bad even though it was cold and dry... I agree. This is unbelievable. 48° and damp on May 1st. We've had so many days with rain and clouds that when we get a nice day it's like a prize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 But Accuweather says precipitation will be BN this month, with temperatures just holding AN. Even has risk of drought upstate by the late summer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 Just cranked the heat up. On May 1st=no bueno. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 A warm front will push slowly northward tonight, bringing some drizzle, fog, and even showers to the region. In its wake, tomorrow will be variably cloudy with a risk of showers or even a thundershower. Readings will be much warmer than they were today. Some of the guidance suggests that temperatures in the mid-70s could extend as far north as New York City. The 80° isotherm could approach or reach Newark. Farther south, temperatures could rise into the middle 80s in Washington, Baltimore, and even Philadelphia. Richmond could approach or reach 90°. A strong backdoor cold front will then erase the warmth in the northern Middle Atlantic region, including Newark and New York City. Much above normal readings will persist in the greater Washington, DC area. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.93°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4. The continuation of El Niño conditions increases prospects for warm anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. During the 1981-2018 period, monthly mean temperature differences between cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.50°C or above and climatology were as follows: Boston: 59.0° vs. 58.5° for climatology New York City: 63.9° vs. 63.1° for climatology Philadelphia: 65.2° vs. 64.3° for climatology Washington, DC: 67.5° vs. 66.6° for climatology The SOI was +9.06 today. Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.096. On April 30, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.829 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat higher than the April 29-adjusted figure of 1.787. Since 1974, there were four cases when the MJO reached an amplitude of 1.750 or above during Phase 2 during the April 20-30 period. The mean May 1-10 temperature was 58.8° vs. the 1981-2018 average of 60.2°. 75% of those cases were cooler than the 1981-2018 average. However, during May cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.50°C or above for the month, the May 1-10 temperature averaged 60.8°. Therefore, it is likely that the first 10 days of May will probably wind up with a mean temperature of 59.2°-61.2°. The latest guidance suggests a mean temperature around 59.4°. Overall, May looks to be warmer than normal and wetter than normal. Finally, from late yesterday into today, Detroit picked up 3.27" rain. That was Detroit's highest two-day precipitation total since September 28-29, 2016 when 3.34" rain fell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 1 hour ago, CIK62 said: But Accuweather says precipitation will be BN this month, with temperatures just holding AN. Even has risk of drought upstate by the late summer. They have to keep their advertisers happy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 Just a 4° diurnal range yesterday here with 53/49°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 Next 8 days averaging 63degs., or about 4degs. AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 2, 2019 Author Share Posted May 2, 2019 I can see the weather turning on a dime by mid month from the cooler/wet conditions we are seeing now to warmer and more humid weather with the wet pattern continuing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: It may come down to the MJO. If we get the phase 8 push like the Euro has, then we may have to wait until late May or June for our first 90 of the season. 90? I would gladly take 80 and sunny. This has been a rough stretch of weather. Many days in 50’s and rain. Can’t remember the last time we had a few nice warm days in a row Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 2, 2019 Author Share Posted May 2, 2019 28 minutes ago, bluewave said: It may come down to the MJO. If we get the phase 8 push like the Euro has, then we may have to wait until late May or June for our first 90 of the season. I honestly don't see an excessive heat summer. I am sure we will have some 90+ days but I think its more likely we will see alot of mid to upper 80's temps with the big story being the humidity and high dewpoints along with storminess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 My highest temp so far is only 73. At this point I don’t care what the temp is, I just want some sunshine. 13th consecutive day with precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 1 hour ago, 495weatherguy said: 90? I would gladly take 80 and sunny. This has been a rough stretch of weather. Many days in 50’s and rain. Can’t remember the last time we had a few nice warm days in a row It hasn't been rough at all. Typical spring weather so far, warm too. We've seen far worse past few years. Were folks expecting 90+ by May because that's not how this works. Seeing ridging signals by next week on models so we'll see 80s very soon. Looks like -NAO breaks down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 11 hours ago, jm1220 said: Just cranked the heat up. On May 1st=no bueno. My building had heat last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It hasn't been rough at all. Typical spring weather so far, warm too. We've seen far worse past few years. Were folks expecting 90+ by May because that's not how this works. Seeing ridging signals by next week on models so we'll see 80s very soon. Looks like -NAO breaks down. Numbers strongly disagree. Record days of rain. Sorry, you’re wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It hasn't been rough at all. Typical spring weather so far, warm too. We've seen far worse past few years. Were folks expecting 90+ by May because that's not how this works. Yeah I've been thinking we've havent had it so bad up until this current stretch. There was a decent run of normal to above normal temps in mid April too. If you're on the immediate coast you miss out but that's always the case this time of yr. I was almost naive enough to think we could get through Spring without an extended depressing dreary stretch of weather, but its inevitable in these parts. Fact is Spring in NY generally sucks, and it's usually much better just 70 miles or so SW. My non expert opinion is It's just not a good spot on the EC for reliably pleasant weather till later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 30 minutes ago, Cfa said: My highest temp so far is only 73. At this point I don’t care what the temp is, I just want some sunshine. 13th consecutive day with precipitation. ISP extended its new all-time measurable rain streak to a remarkable 12 days. The 2010’s continue to produce one new extreme after another. Number of Consecutive Days Precipitation >= .01 for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1963-09-05 to 2019-05-01 1 12 2019-05-01 2 9 1969-11-10 3 8 2003-01-06 - 8 2000-05-25 - 8 1998-05-11 - 8 1986-02-21 - 8 1978-08-07 4 7 2018-09-12 - 7 2014-12-11 - 7 2009-05-07 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 24 minutes ago, Snow88 said: My building had heat last night. my building has had heat for days i wish the landlord would turn it off feels like summer 24 hours a day lol... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 51 minutes ago, bluewave said: ISP extended its new all-time measurable rain streak to a remarkable 12 days. The 2010’s continue to produce one new extreme after another. Number of Consecutive Days Precipitation >= .01 for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1963-09-05 to 2019-05-01 1 12 2019-05-01 2 9 1969-11-10 3 8 2003-01-06 - 8 2000-05-25 - 8 1998-05-11 - 8 1986-02-21 - 8 1978-08-07 4 7 2018-09-12 - 7 2014-12-11 - 7 2009-05-07 The sun just made an appearance in Bay Ridge. Long enough to cast a shadow. We should let Forky know. As always .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 Yes..there is something yellow in the sky as I type this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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