Rtd208 Posted April 27, 2019 Share Posted April 27, 2019 May temps look like they will start off a little below normal, hopefully warmer times will be ahead thereafter. Post them here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 27, 2019 Share Posted April 27, 2019 Chicago is in line for a few inches of snow. Incredible 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted April 27, 2019 Share Posted April 27, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Chicago is in line for a few inches of snow. Incredible Yeah, and parts of the Midwest could see 8" or more. Northwest Montana and the Rockies up there look good too for a storm, even blizzard conditions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 28, 2019 Author Share Posted April 28, 2019 Larry Cosgrove thinks we will start to dry out and warm up in the longer term outlook of his weekly newsletter. He also says we are probably going to have a hazy, hot and humid summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 28, 2019 Share Posted April 28, 2019 32 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Larry Cosgrove thinks we will start to dry out and warm up in the longer term outlook of his weekly newsletter. He also says we are probably going to have a hazy, hot and humid summer. Don't buy that for a second. We haven't been in a dry pattern for many months now and with a firehouse jet continuing, that's not likely to change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 28, 2019 Author Share Posted April 28, 2019 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Don't buy that for a second. We haven't been in a dry pattern for many months now and with a firehouse jet continuing, that's not likely to change. Yeah I am skeptical on the drying out myself. The hazy, hot and humid summer I can buy into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 28, 2019 Share Posted April 28, 2019 32 minutes ago, bluewave said: NYC has had a positive temperature departure 8 out of the last 9 Mays since 2010. 2018...+4.5 2017...-1.3 2016...+0.4 2015...+6.1 2014...+1.6 2013...+0.4 2012...+2.7 2011....+2.1 2010...+2.9 When will they realize 30 year or even 15 year averages are a thing of the past. AN is the new normal now. Top 5-10 months are the new AN months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted April 29, 2019 Share Posted April 29, 2019 On 4/27/2019 at 4:36 AM, Rtd208 said: May temps look like they will start off a little below normal, hopefully warmer times will be ahead thereafter. Post them here. ...anyone see the first heat-wave down the road? winter time we all look for the cold /snowy conditions..me included. now its time to see when the 1st heat wave will commence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 29, 2019 Share Posted April 29, 2019 2 hours ago, tim said: ...anyone see the first heat-wave down the road? winter time we all look for the cold /snowy conditions..me included. now its time to see when the 1st heat wave will commence. The first 90 degree potential in May will take longer than last year. Newark hit 90 on May 2nd and 94 on the 3rd with record warmth. This year we’ll have to deal with a warm frontal/backdoor boundary nearby for the first week of May. Newark May 90 degree days since 2010: 5-2-18.....90....5-3-18....94...5-15-18...92...5-26-18...92 5-17-17...92....5-18-17..92...5-19-17...93 5-25-16...91...5-26-16...93...5-28-16...96 5-25-15...90...5-26-15...91 2014....None 5-30-13....93....5-31-13....94 5-28-12...91....5-29-12....92 5-30-11...92 5-26-10...95 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted April 29, 2019 Share Posted April 29, 2019 Right now we're still waiting for the Park to hit 80. The 90s can take as long as they please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 29, 2019 Share Posted April 29, 2019 3 hours ago, bluewave said: The first 90 degree potential in May will take longer than last year. Newark hit 90 on May 2nd and 94 on the 3rd with record warmth. This year we’ll have to deal with a warm frontal/backdoor boundary nearby for the first week of May. Newark May 90 degree days since 2010: 5-2-18.....90....5-3-18....94...5-15-18...92...5-26-18...92 5-17-17...92....5-18-17..92...5-19-17...93 5-25-16...91...5-26-16...93...5-28-16...96 5-25-15...90...5-26-15...91 2014....None 5-30-13....93....5-31-13....94 5-28-12...91....5-29-12....92 5-30-11...92 5-26-10...95 Yeah forgot about last May's early heat... 93° here on the 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 29, 2019 Share Posted April 29, 2019 we're going to be on the dreaded north side of the warm front for days 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 29, 2019 Author Share Posted April 29, 2019 34 minutes ago, forkyfork said: we're going to be on the dreaded north side of the warm front for days Looks like plenty of rain to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 29, 2019 Share Posted April 29, 2019 Flying in from the DR tomorrow this is going to be a shock to the system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 19 hours ago, Gravity Wave said: Right now we're still waiting for the Park to hit 80. The 90s can take as long as they please. The Park already reached 80 (80 excatly) earlier in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 We'll see how things evolve but hope we dont waste the next spike in heights on/around May 8-10 or so where ridge builds into the east on most guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 Some breaks on the clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 30, 2019 Author Share Posted April 30, 2019 Late week into the weekend continues to look very wet. Current temp is 64 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 Root for the more optimistic Euro forecast on Thursday. Hopefully, the 588 DM ridge near NC allows the warm front to get far enough north. While the NAM usually does really well with backdoors, Thursday is just outside its best range for details like that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 that looks like the most aggressive run yet 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 Troughs northeast of us in the Maritimes this time of the year almost always mean the backdoor gets most of us. This looks like a pretty deep trough too reinforced by the -NAO, so it'll be tough for surface warmth to make it this far NE. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 we'll get bursts of warmth mixed in. saturday is another chance after thursday 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 On 4/29/2019 at 8:38 AM, bluewave said: The first 90 degree potential in May will take longer than last year. Newark hit 90 on May 2nd and 94 on the 3rd with record warmth. This year we’ll have to deal with a warm frontal/backdoor boundary nearby for the first week of May. Newark May 90 degree days since 2010: 5-2-18.....90....5-3-18....94...5-15-18...92...5-26-18...92 5-17-17...92....5-18-17..92...5-19-17...93 5-25-16...91...5-26-16...93...5-28-16...96 5-25-15...90...5-26-15...91 2014....None 5-30-13....93....5-31-13....94 5-28-12...91....5-29-12....92 5-30-11...92 5-26-10...95 This summer probably wont be nearly as hot/warm as last summer was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 1, 2019 Share Posted May 1, 2019 April ended with a mean temperature of 55.4° (2.4° above normal) in New York City's Central park. That was the 9th warmest April figure on record for that location. The April 16-30 period had a mean temperature of 57.3°. That fell within the range (+/- 1 standard deviation) from the mean temperature following cases where the AO had dropped to -2.500 or below during April 1-10. The mean temperature for such prior cases was 56.3° and the standard deviation was 2.3° The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.93°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist into at least the first week of May in Region 3.4. The SOI was -1.66 today. Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.282. On April 29, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.787 (RMM). The amplitude was lower than the April 28-adjusted figure of 2.140. Since 1974, there were four cases when the MJO reached an amplitude of 1.750 or above during Phase 2 during the April 20-30 period. The mean May 1-10 temperature was 58.8° vs. the 1981-2018 average of 60.2°. 75% of those cases were cooler than the 1981-2018 average. However, during May cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.50°C or above for the month, the May 1-10 temperature averaged 60.8°. Therefore, it is likely that the first 10 days of May will probably wind up with a mean temperature of 59.2°-61.2°. The latest guidance has an estimated mean of 60.1°. Going forward, May looks likely to be both warmer and wetter than normal. The latest EPS weekly guidance has swung from cooler than normal to near normal. The CFSv2 favors somewhat warmer than normal conditions. Based on applying sensitivity analysis to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that May will wind up warmer than normal in New York City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 1, 2019 Share Posted May 1, 2019 9 hours ago, bluewave said: Root for the more optimistic Euro forecast on Thursday. Hopefully, the 588 DM ridge near NC allows the warm front to get far enough north. While the NAM usually does really well with backdoors, Thursday is just outside its best range for details like that. The backdoor tends to win out most of the time from April to mid May. Big temp bust on Thursday I think, could be near 80F or in the 50s/60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 1, 2019 Author Share Posted May 1, 2019 Mt.Holly & Upton ref late week/weekend Temps, heavy rain/storms. Really excellent discussion from Mt.Holly Mt.Holly: .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... In "short," what a mess. Starting with the convection ongoing in the central/southern plains into the Midwest, the models performed noticeably better than with the prior day`s convection, but there were still some issues (mostly with convection allowing for front/outflow boundary propagation displaced southeastward from previous progs). Additionally, the models (hi-res and coarser operational) whiffed on the long-lasting weak mesoscale convective system moving from the Ohio Valley through much of PA before dissipating in MD/DE and adjacent areas this evening. I start with the above because, as discussed last night, the relatively poor verification of convection (on Monday) has wreaked havoc with the model forecasts (and trends) during the past 24 hours and will likely continue today. For example, the NAM surface pressure trends the past 24 hours have been for much higher pressure in the Great Lakes/Northeast Thursday and Friday (with implications of this to be discussed at length below), and the GFS has trended with slightly lower pressure in much of the Southeast through the period. The GFS has also trended slightly weaker and faster with the ridging in the eastern U.S. All of these trends make sense to me to some degree given the delayed onset of widespread convection in the central U.S. and the somewhat more progressive nature of the mesoscale phenomena associated with the storms (and upscale effects on larger-scale features). There continues to be a sizable amount of disagreement of timing/location of convection downstream in the eastern U.S. associated with the plethora of perturbations convectively generated or attendant to the widespread storms in the central U.S. However, there appears to be some model convergence for Thursday. Two perturbations appear to eject from the larger- scale trough in the central U.S. The first comes Thursday morning, with some showers/storms expected to initiate in portions of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon. The 00z NAM Nest develops some rather vigorous convection (with hints of this in the 00z RGEM as well), and the environment is certainly appearing increasingly favorable thermodynamically (MLCAPE/SBCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg during the afternoon). With deep-layer vertical shear of 30-40 kts, could at least see some strong (perhaps a few severe) storms during peak heating. Exact placement needs to be worked out, with some indications that areas south of Interstate 78 appear most at risk. Notably, the 00z GFS/ECMWF develop convection in the northern Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon as well, with precipitation lingering for much of the night as the second perturbation approaches. The big wild card will be what transpires upstream of these perturbations. The 00z NAM blasts the region with onshore flow and much cooler and more stable air by Friday (differences of 20+ degrees in surface temps; note the implications of higher pressure in the northern U.S. mentioned above). Meanwhile, the GFS and ECMWF are much warmer, inducing southerly flow as a third perturbation approaches the region on Friday. Should these latter solutions materialize, another line of loosely- organized convection is expected to develop and move through the area. However, the NAM solution would suggest more substantial convection is in question and may be displaced south/west of the area. Given what has transpired the past 24 hours, it is quite difficult to discount the colder NAM solution and have at least incorporated it into the temp/dew point forecast Thursday and Friday. I also capped PoPs on Friday to chance given the large discrepancies that have developed with the surface pattern among the models. It is worthy of noting the NAM looks suspiciously dry in the Northeast for much of this period and appears to be an outlier with the convective evolution upstream as well. For the weekend...the front appears to linger close enough to the area to allow a potentially significant storm to affect the area. The 00z GFS/ECMWF eject a southern-stream vort max from an upstream/amplified trough in the plains (around 18z Friday) and rapidly intensify it as it phases with a northern-stream perturbation on Saturday and Saturday night. Rapid cyclogenesis occurs in the Mid-South and Ohio Valley during this period, with widespread convection expected to develop in its vicinity. This system approaches the area Saturday night, so have increased PoPs during this period substantially. As could probably be deduced already, the temperature forecast is subject to large errors given the huge uncertainty with the surface pattern, especially Thursday night and Friday. Errors of 10 or more degrees are possible for much of the period. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The developing low to our southwest on Saturday appears to move through or near our area on Sunday. Though the low remains fairly weak from a sea-level pressure magnitude standpoint, there will be a rather impressive setup for high QPF should the 00z GFS/ECMWF verify. With right-entrance region dynamics provided by a retreating anticyclonic 250-mb jet streak in New England and intensifying differential cyclonic vorticity advection in the midlevels, the high-octane air provided by the slowly retreating subtropical ridge in the eastern U.S. will provide a highly favorable environment for heavy rainfall. The QPF from the 00z GFS and ECMWF is quite impressive, with 1-2+ inch amounts in a 6-12 hour period in most of the CWA. That spells flooding potential, and I have highlighted this in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. There may also be potential for warm- sector convection in portions of the CWA, but this is quite uncertain since models are just beginning to converge on a solution here. Notably, the CMC was discounted owing to its suspiciously high influence of tropical convection in the Bahamas. Of course, a lot of uncertainty remains with the above scenario. This involves phasing systems, a highly unpredictable predecessor front, and antecedent convection allowing for the synoptic-scale players to materialize. There appears to be a brief break in the action Monday and possibly Tuesday before another cold front approaches, perhaps reloading a very similar pattern thereafter. && Upton: .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Chances for light rain will increase tonight as a sfc warm front approaches. Areas of fog should also develop mainly in coastal sections and mainly after midnight as the warm front nears, and this fog could become locally dense. After dog burns off thu morning, big questions as to how far north and east the warm front will lift through for a time on Thu before a back door cold front pushes to the south and west. There is about 20 degrees of spread between the coolest and warmest model guidance, from the lower 60s to lower 80s across NE NJ, and lower 50s to lower 70s across SE CT. Forecast takes more of a middle ground approach between the NAM and ECMWF, ranging from the mid 50s across eastern areas to near 70 in NE NJ. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A cloudy and wet pattern will persist across the area as deep layer ridging remains firm over the western Atlantic and a long wave trough lingers across the western U.S. The ridge axis then retrogrades and rebuilds across the Central U.S. by early next week. Initially the extended period will be dominated by southwesterly flow aloft, advecting Gulf moisture into the region, with periods of rain possible. Thereafter, troughing becomes more prevalent across the Northeast as a result of the ridge building upstream. For Thursday night, confluent flow aloft will shift offshore, with the associated surface high following, allowing a back door cold front to move through the area quite quickly overnight. The boundary then stalls slightly to the west during the day time, through may begin to return northward as a warm front as flow shifts to a more southerly direction ahead of the next approaching front. There is some uncertainty as to potential destabilization, depending on how far the warm front can progress, but with height falls and the quickly following cold front, there is potential for a rumble of thunder across the interior. Expect temperatures to be coolest across the coastal areas for Friday. Should the warmer guidance pan out across the interior, temps over western zones could end up about 10-15 warmer than currently forecast. The cold front then stalls offshore Saturday with a wave of low pressure developing along it to our SW. The low eventually passes to our south at some point Sunday into Sunday evening. This keeps the threat of more rain through the entire period, but will cap PoPs at 50% this far out. If the low passes farther to the south on Sunday, similar to the Canadian solution, then rainfall chances will be lower than currently forecast. A cold front then brings low chances of showers and Monday, then will go with a dry forecast for Tuesday into Tuesday night as weak high pressure builds in behind the front. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 1, 2019 Share Posted May 1, 2019 The first 8 days of May are averaging 60degs., or 1deg. AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 1, 2019 Share Posted May 1, 2019 This pattern is awful. Make it stop 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 1, 2019 Share Posted May 1, 2019 This pattern is great. Cool and rainy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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