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April 29-May 1 Severe Weather


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It looks like something may be trying to form SW of DFW now, especially just west of Stephenville.  Will watch to see if this area of showers can form into some thunderstorms, as the atmosphere there seems volatile.

 

EDIT: and just as I say this, SPC puts out an MD saying that a watch is likely for north-central Texas.

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ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0480  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0153 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS  
  
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY   
  
VALID 301853Z - 302100Z  
  
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT  
  
SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS  
PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. LARGE HAIL, WIND DAMAGE AND AN  
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT CAN BE EXPECTED. WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCE WILL  
LIKELY BE NEEDED.  
  
DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT  
LOCATED IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. THE AIRMASS  
SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS  
NEAR 70 F. MLCAPE VALUES ARE GENERALLY ESTIMATED IN THE 2000 TO 3000  
J/KG RANGE BY THE RAP. IN ADDITION, THE RAP HAS MODERATE DEEP-LAYER  
SHEAR ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR ESTIMATED IN THE  
35 TO 45 KT RANGE. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THE MAIN  
UNCERTAINTY IS THE EXACT TIMING OF INITIATION. THE LATEST RADAR  
IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK ECHOS IN THE VICINITY OF STEPHENVILLE. THE  
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A STORM WILL DEVELOP IN THIS AREA SOMETIME  
BETWEEN 20Z AND 21Z. AFTER THAT, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO  
EXPAND WITH A CLUSTER MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE  
DALLAS-FORT WORTH METRO AREA, POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE RED RIVER  
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH  
LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IS ALSO  
EXPECTED AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND  
EARLY EVENING.  
  

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Just now, Indystorm said:

And I never saw a tor polygon on SGF radar for the tor warned storm just se Joplin area....only a severe warning for areas sw of it.

Seems to me that the NWS in general is having issues with polygons on their maps and radars. Radarscope had it. Fairly strong couplet for a couple minutes but it weakened quickly.

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