Hoosier Posted April 26, 2019 Author Share Posted April 26, 2019 I am sold on some accumulation around here but not buying into the heavy amounts on the GEM and a couple of the hires models. I think a couple inches is a good guess with some potential for more. The thermal profiles are really teetering in the afternoon so can't rule out a snowier surprise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 26, 2019 Share Posted April 26, 2019 I still need 0.1" of snow to reach 50" for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 26, 2019 Share Posted April 26, 2019 Just to add to how dynamic this little system is, there have been severe warnings in Wyoming today associated with the vort and it produced a tornado. Warning salty language and flying trampolines below: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 26, 2019 Share Posted April 26, 2019 Also in Nebraska 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluoronium Posted April 26, 2019 Share Posted April 26, 2019 If LOT pulls the trigger on a WSW, would this be the latest in the season they have ever issued one? I don't know where to find this info. I'm actually considering driving north to snow chase. Normally I hate spring snow, but this is just too wild. It looks like the majority of the snow will fall during the day in IL/WI which is literally insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted April 26, 2019 Share Posted April 26, 2019 Can anyone offer up a physics/dynamics explanation for why the storm trended south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 26, 2019 Author Share Posted April 26, 2019 As far as leaf out, is this about what it looks like for you folks up north? Obviously not a uniform process, but I'd say this is fairly representative of the landscape locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 26, 2019 Author Share Posted April 26, 2019 12 minutes ago, fluoronium said: If LOT pulls the trigger on a WSW, would this be the latest in the season they have ever issued one? I don't know where to find this info. I'm actually considering driving north to snow chase. Normally I hate spring snow, but this is just too wild. It looks like the majority of the snow will fall during the day in IL/WI which is literally insane. Don't have the link handy but if you google iem archive you might be able to find it. They have an archive of past watches/warnings though the data is incomplete the farther back you go. I'd bet money that LOT has never issued a warning this late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted April 26, 2019 Share Posted April 26, 2019 4 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: Can anyone offer up a physics/dynamics explanation for why the storm trended south? The developing -NAO largely explains the suppression. It's digging more to the south due to the depth/magnitude of the trough currently approaching the East Coast (again related to the anomalous ridge developing over Greenland). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted April 26, 2019 Share Posted April 26, 2019 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: As far as leaf out, is this about what it looks like for you folks up north? Obviously not a uniform process, but I'd say this is fairly representative of the landscape locally. Looks like you are a solid week or two ahead of us. We have small leaves on most trees, many like my birches and oaks with nothing yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted April 26, 2019 Share Posted April 26, 2019 Really depends what kind of tree it is. Boxelders are cranking out, oaks are barely started. Most everything else is in between.Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 26, 2019 Share Posted April 26, 2019 12 minutes ago, Hoosier said: As far as leaf out, is this about what it looks like for you folks up north? Obviously not a uniform process, but I'd say this is fairly representative of the landscape locally. We do not seem to be that far along here. My brother noted last weekend in Chicago that they was a lot more blooming there than here. It is certainly picked up a lot the past week though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 26, 2019 Share Posted April 26, 2019 5 hours ago, ams30721us said: Yep, a more very similar to Ukie, GEM, and RGEM today. Man that is an awesome low-level baroclinic zone. They'll be outside BBQ-ing in Springfield, while a snowstorm rages 150 miles north. Pretty crazy to have a winter storm watch out a few days before May. Wow. (The county just north that is). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NegativeEPO Posted April 26, 2019 Share Posted April 26, 2019 18 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: The developing -NAO largely explains the suppression. It's digging more to the south due to the depth/magnitude of the trough currently approaching the East Coast (again related to the anomalous ridge developing over Greenland). All it takes is a -NAO to get an absurd, almost unprecedented snowstorm in late April? That’s kinda ****ed up in all honesty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 27, 2019 Share Posted April 27, 2019 1 hour ago, purduewx80 said: The developing -NAO largely explains the suppression. It's digging more to the south due to the depth/magnitude of the trough currently approaching the East Coast (again related to the anomalous ridge developing over Greenland). So the -NAO overwhelmed even the -PNA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted April 27, 2019 Share Posted April 27, 2019 Most recent RAP and the last few HRRR runs have the low (the one in Colorado) tracking straight east. Low doesn't bump to the north when it merges with the other low from Wyoming. As for the heavy snow axis, a very slight tick south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 27, 2019 Author Share Posted April 27, 2019 Today's high at ORD was 63. I searched and could not find an instance of a 60+ degree high on the day prior to a 6"+ snow in Chicago, so that could be interesting to monitor. There have been a few instances of highs in the mid/upper 50s on the day before a 6"+ snow. Some may recall that it was warm right before the big snow in January 1967. It was warm but not 60+ on the day before: 1/24/1967: 65 1/25/1967: 54 1/26/1967: 32... 16.4" snow 1/27/1967: 31... 6.6" snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 27, 2019 Share Posted April 27, 2019 Today's high at ORD was 63. I searched and could not find an instance of a 60+ degree high on the day prior to a 6"+ snow in Chicago, so that could be interesting to monitor. There have been a few instances of highs in the mid/upper 50s on the day before a 6"+ snow. Some may recall that it was warm right before the big snow in January 1967. It was warm but not 60+ on the day before: 1/24/1967: 65 1/25/1967: 54 1/26/1967: 32... 16.4" snow 1/27/1967: 31... 6.6" snow Most interesting somewhat comparable time period I could find when putting together stats for the office was late April 1910. There were 5 consecutive days with measurable snow from the 22nd to the 26th including 2 days with 2"+. Then 2 days after the streak ended, April 28th had a high of 76, followed by a high of 86 on the 29th. In addition, prior to that latest on record stretch of 5 consecutive days of measurable snow, there was a high of 80+ earlier that season, on March 27th (81 deg). Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted April 27, 2019 Share Posted April 27, 2019 WSW for LOT's northern tier of counties. Quote URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Chicago IL 814 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019 ILZ003-004-270915- /O.UPG.KLOT.WS.A.0003.190427T1600Z-190428T0400Z/ /O.NEW.KLOT.WS.W.0006.190427T1600Z-190428T0400Z/ Winnebago-Boone- Including the cities of Rockford and Belvidere 814 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM CDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Winnebago and Boone Counties. * WHEN...From 11 AM to 11 PM CDT Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will likely be very difficult in heavy snowfall with greatly reduced visibilities. In the heaviest snowfall, rates could approach 1 to 2 inches per hour. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by going to www.gettingaroundillinois.com in Illinois. && $$ URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Chicago IL 814 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019 ILZ005-006-270915- /O.UPG.KLOT.WS.A.0003.190427T1800Z-190428T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KLOT.WS.W.0006.190427T1800Z-190428T0400Z/ McHenry-Lake IL- Including the cities of Woodstock and Waukegan 814 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM CDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...McHenry and Lake IL Counties. * WHEN...From 1 PM to 11 PM CDT Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will likely be very difficult in heavy snowfall with greatly reduced visibilities. In the heaviest snowfall, rates could approach 1 to 2 inches per hour. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by going to www.gettingaroundillinois.com in Illinois. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 27, 2019 Author Share Posted April 27, 2019 00z HRRR is taking the surface low fairly solidly into Missouri... not just ride the border. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted April 27, 2019 Share Posted April 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 00z HRRR is taking the surface low fairly solidly into Missouri... not just ride the border. Yeah, although the axis of heavy snow didn't shift south much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 27, 2019 Share Posted April 27, 2019 As Natester stated, the end result is close to other models... snow band from Dubuque to Chicago, about 0.75" of precip in Cedar Rapids(probably enough mix/snow to coat the grass). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted April 27, 2019 Share Posted April 27, 2019 2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: We do not seem to be that far along here. My brother noted last weekend in Chicago that they was a lot more blooming there than here. It is certainly picked up a lot the past week though. While checking out the morel mushroom boards, I noticed a similar progression. It seems that it was almost west to east, with the 'srooms popping in the western part of Indiana while the majority of the woods floors were still barren here in the eastern part of the state. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted April 27, 2019 Share Posted April 27, 2019 1 minute ago, IWXwx said: While checking out the morel mushroom boards, I noticed a similar progression. It seems that it was almost east to west, with the 'srooms popping in the western part of Indiana while the majority of the woods floors were still barren here in the eastern part of the state. I can confirm!! lol. These cold nights are killing us. But at least we're not getting what the folks up North are 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 27, 2019 Share Posted April 27, 2019 HRRR is quite warm at the surface comparatively to other models especially out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted April 27, 2019 Share Posted April 27, 2019 0z NAM (12k) is a bit north of the HRRR and RAP (in terms of the track of the surface low). However, the axis of snow is exactly the same as shown on the HRRR and RAP. EDIT: 0z NAM 3k also a bit north of the RAP and HRRR. Hardly any accumulation for Cedar Rapids (which I don't mind). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 27, 2019 Share Posted April 27, 2019 22 minutes ago, IWXwx said: While checking out the morel mushroom boards, I noticed a similar progression. It seems that it was almost west to east, with the 'srooms popping in the western part of Indiana while the majority of the woods floors were still barren here in the eastern part of the state. I have a friend from Fortville planning to go morel hunting near North Manchester tomorrow on a relative's 80 acre property. May have some rain but the snow might stay north per AFD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 27, 2019 Author Share Posted April 27, 2019 A nice thing about a storm at this time of year is the late sunset. You don't get frequent chances to watch it rip in daylight after 7 pm central/8 pm eastern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted April 27, 2019 Share Posted April 27, 2019 Given the rarity of a mid-late April accumulating snowfall I feel bad for LOT. They did not buy into the 4/14 event and got burned a bit. Would not be surprised that as they buy in this time things don't pan out the same way. Luck of the draw I guess. Either way, this last two weeks is for the "winters over" crowd that posts on December 26. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted April 27, 2019 Share Posted April 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: A nice thing about a storm at this time of year is the late sunset. You don't get frequent chances to watch it rip in daylight after 7 pm central/8 pm eastern. sick in a way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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