Hoosier Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 Almost feels like we are entering the theater of the absurd from a weather perspective. Anyway, looks like mainly MN-WI-MI under the gun at this time but adjacent parts of Iowa and Illinois may not be out of it. A bit early for amounts but a band of wind driven snow looks like a decent bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 Yay more cold rain on a Saturday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 Euro shifted north at 00z. Hammers central/northern WI and central MN. We'll see if it's a trend or it waffles back south at 12z. My guess would be the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 Knew it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 I was about to post in the winter 2018/19 grade thread but I think I’ll keep that on hold thru the weekend...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTXYankee Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 Yuck. You could not pay me enough to live that far north, I think Columbus winters are long. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btcs31 Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 But why on a weekend...? I could care less if we get 35F and rain on a Tuesday in May, but please give me dry average temps Fri, Sat, Sun this time of year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 25, 2019 Author Share Posted April 25, 2019 1 hour ago, btcs31 said: But why on a weekend...? I could care less if we get 35F and rain on a Tuesday in May, but please give me dry average temps Fri, Sat, Sun this time of year. LOT might put out an advisory like 2 days in advance if models come into agreement with this. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 25, 2019 Author Share Posted April 25, 2019 Was looking at some late season snows in the last few days of April or later and to say that climo is hostile for accumulating snow south of about the WI-IL border is an understatement. Rockford doesn't have a 2" calendar day snow after April 23 and there are very few 1" snows after that day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 Should Detroit get basically any accumulating snow, it would be historic. Looking back at the records, there has been only 6 instances of 0.5” of snow or more from April 27th to the end of the snow season. The highest was 6.0” on 5/9/1923, which is also the most recent occurrence of more than a tenth of an inch of snow in this timeframe. The rest of the dates are from 1912 or earlier. If Detroit gets just 0.2” or more, it would be the first time this has happened in almost 100 years on April 27th or later. The average last date of accumulating snow at Detroit is April 8th, with the latest date being 5/22/1883. The average last date of 1”+ at Detroit is March 24th, and the average last date of 3”+ is February 27th. Top 5 1-day snowfalls at Detroit from April 27th to June 31st: 1) 6.0” on 5/9/1923 2) 3.0” on 4/29/1909 3) 2.7” on 5/22/1883 4) 2.3” on 5/21/1883 5) 1.5” on 5/13/1912 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 25, 2019 Author Share Posted April 25, 2019 Impressive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 Wow.. winter just won’t let go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 In southern Wisconsin, the records for most snow this late in the season are 7.8" on Apr. 30, 1994 for Madison, and 5.0" on Apr. 30, 1907 for Milwaukee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, Luftfeuchtigkeit said: In southern Wisconsin, the records for most snow this late in the season are 7.8" on Apr. 30, 1994 for Madison, and 5.0" on Apr. 30, 1907 for Milwaukee. Does that include May snows (like in 1990)? I forget what the official daily total was for that freak May snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 not again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 Ugh, only for historical purposes will I allow this! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 32 minutes ago, wisconsinwx said: Does that include May snows (like in 1990)? I forget what the official daily total was for that freak May snow. Yes - May snows were less than those - May records are 4.8" on May 3, 1935 in Madison, and 3.2" on May 3, 1935, and also May 10, 1990 in Milwaukee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 25, 2019 Author Share Posted April 25, 2019 Probably somewhat higher tree damage potential than the storm a couple weeks ago with spring bloom being farther along. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 With more of the guidance suggesting possible snow in Chicago on April 29, below are Chicago's 5 biggest snowfalls from April 25 and later: 1. 3.3", April 25-26, 1910 2. 2.2", May 1-2, 1940 3. 1.3", May 3-4, 1907 4. 0.6", May 8-9, 1923 5. 0.5", May 6, 1989 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 going to be in Minneapolis this weekend and ironically might escape the snow being up north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 12z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 25, 2019 Author Share Posted April 25, 2019 Besides the daily snowfall records, there are a couple other things that *could* come into play for Chicago if trends don't reverse. The most snow to fall in a season from April 14 on is 6.9" in 1910. ORD currently has 5.4" If Chicago were to receive at least 1", it appears that it would be the first time that 2 separate storm systems/complexes have produced 1"+ from April 14 on in the same season. Note that this is not the same thing as having multiple calendar days from April 14 on with 1"+ snow, which has happened in a couple instances when a storm spanned multiple days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 25, 2019 Author Share Posted April 25, 2019 Impressive to see subfreezing temps being modeled during the afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 25, 2019 Author Share Posted April 25, 2019 Still some time to back down a bit but overall to me this is shaping up to be every bit as significant as the mid April storm. You could argue maybe more... if not from an amounts perspective then just because it's a couple weeks later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 LOT must have summoned RC for the special mid range AFD becasue he did so well on the April 14 event. Nice and fun discussion as always. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 I wonder if this will stick to the pavement? I know that people often fall for the fallacy of the "ground is too warm" myth, but it has been pretty darn warm lately and some of this will be falling during daylight too with a high sun angle, especially west of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 25, 2019 Author Share Posted April 25, 2019 7 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: I wonder if this will stick to the pavement? I know that people often fall for the fallacy of the "ground is too warm" myth, but it has been pretty darn warm lately and some of this will be falling during daylight too with a high sun angle, especially west of here. Rates should be pretty good, so I would expect it to stick on the pavement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 I'm pulling for this one to shift south...I'm always in for historic/record events. As of now, looks like agreement on 6"+ getting into the northern tier across N. IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 14 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: I'm pulling for this one to shift south...I'm always in for historic/record events. As of now, looks like agreement on 6"+ getting into the northern tier across N. IL. Say it ain't so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 41 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Rates should be pretty good, so I would expect it to stick on the pavement. Any thoughts on ratios? That stuff a couple weeks ago had to be like 6:1. I'm guessing something similar in this case but maybe a bit better as omega looks good in the SGZ on NAM BUFKIT MKE sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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