Tallis Rockwell Posted April 21, 2019 Share Posted April 21, 2019 On Wednesday, the models move the upper-level trough into the southern Plains and have a moist airmass in place from the Texas Coastal Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of a front across the eastern third of Texas northeastward into the Arklatex. Deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong enough across south-central and southeast Texas for a severe threat Wednesday afternoon and evening. The models are in good enough agreement that a severe threat areas has been added across this area on Day 5. A good synoptic set up but without a clear picture on the mesoscale ingredients this could be nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 21, 2019 Share Posted April 21, 2019 Dates on this aren't correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tallis Rockwell Posted April 21, 2019 Author Share Posted April 21, 2019 That happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 22, 2019 Share Posted April 22, 2019 Wow that's rough. Euro can't even get 70 Td in South Texas. Deep South next day is pretty bad too. Both days wind fields are meh. Warm 700 mb prevents instability and helicity juxtaposition. First time I've really looked. SPC is right to downplay. Yuck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 Severe tstorm watch for parts of DFW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 And a severe thunderstorm warning in Tarrant County as well. I'm starting to hear the rain pick up here on the west side of Fort Worth, but the winds don't seem too strong right now. Storm is warned for 65 mph wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 Watch extended until 5AM. Wind didn't get too bad here in far north dallas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 "Will maintain current risk category given some lingering forecast uncertainties, but subsequent outlook updates will continue to reevaluate observational/short-guidance trends for a possible Enhanced Risk upgrade for portions of south-central/southeast Texas." https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 Tough call. Moisture, temps and CAPE are a little low for South Texas. However low level shear certainly supports 5%. It is borderline. Few more degrees F or more knots at 850 mb and it's 10%. Maybe not today though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 Tor warned storm passing just north of Bryan/College Station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tallis Rockwell Posted April 24, 2019 Author Share Posted April 24, 2019 Funnel cloud and damage confirmed. BRYAN, Texas — An apparent tornado touched down in Bryan Wednesday afternoon. Some homes are damaged in the 6900 block of Coyote Run Road, according to KBTX. It’s not clear if anyone was injured. Emergency crews are headed to the area near FM 1179 and Highway 6. Brazos County remains under a tornado warning. Check back for more on this developing story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 Tor warning for Madison county, including Madisonville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 Parents near Longview in a closet right now, TOR warning and they heard the low rumble sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 51 minutes ago, canderson said: Parents near Longview in a closet right now, TOR warning and they heard the low rumble sound. That area of rotation dissipated as it moved northeast, and another area of decent rotation formed without a tornado warning near Diana, TX. I called my friend to let them know, but there was no tornado warning. He said it was quite windy and they had lost power, so I told them to hang tight for 10 minutes or so in their closet. No other incident that I'm aware of and it looks like the rotation has weakened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 19 minutes ago, cstrunk said: That area of rotation dissipated as it moved northeast, and another area of decent rotation formed without a tornado warning near Diana, TX. I called my friend to let them know, but there was no tornado warning. He said it was quite windy and they had lost power, so I told them to hang tight for 10 minutes or so in their closet. No other incident that I'm aware of and it looks like the rotation has weakened. Yea they’re good. They’re on the WO/East Mountain/ border essentially 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 I am interested to see what the survey teams find regarding the Deep East Texas/North Louisiana tornado(s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 1 hour ago, aggiegeog said: I am interested to see what the survey teams find regarding the Deep East Texas/North Louisiana tornado(s). The one that traveled apparently 150 miles and killed 2? And damaged parts of LT campus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 1 hour ago, yoda said: The one that traveled apparently 150 miles and killed 2? And damaged parts of LT campus? Yes, that one. Along with the Bryan and Gilmer ones. It was and eventful day/night in East Texas with lots of flooding along with the isolated tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 26, 2019 Share Posted April 26, 2019 The Bryan tornado has been rated an EF-2 so far. Quote 030 NOUS44 KHGX 252244 PNSHGX TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338- 436>438-261045- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 544 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019 ...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR APRIL 24 TORNADO EVENT NEAR BRYAN TX... .TORNADO EAST OF BRYAN TX... RATING: EF-2 ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 120 MPH PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 1.6 MILES PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 50-100 YARDS FATALITIES: 0 INJURIES: 1 START DATE: APRIL 24, 2019 START TIME: 442PM CDT START LOCATION: FM 1179 AND COYOTE RUN START LAT/LON: 30.6871_/_-96.3018 END DATE: APRIL 24, 2019 END TIME: 447PM CDT END LOCATION: OLD RELIANCE ROAD AND MERKA DRIVE END_LAT/LON: 30.7090_/_-96.3118 SURVEY_SUMMARY: DAMAGE SURVEY FOUND THAT A TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ABOUT 4 MILES EAST OF BRYAN TEXAS ALONG FARM TO MARKET ROAD 1179 AT AROUND 442PM CDT CAUSING DAMAGE TO ONE HOUSE AND FOUR COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS AND WAREHOUSES. THERE WAS ONE INJURY TO A MALE INSIDE ONE OF THE WAREHOUSES. THE TORNADO THEN TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWEST TOWARDS ANOTHER WAREHOUSE BUILDING WITH TREE DAMAGE ALONG ITS PATH BEFORE DISSIPATING NEAR MERKA DRIVE EAST OF OLD RELIANCE ROAD AROUND 447PM CDT. DAMAGE TO THE WAREHOUSES AND COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS WAS RATED EF-2 WITH OTHER DAMAGE RANGING FROM EF-0 TO EF-1. START TIME AND END TIMES OF THE TORNADO WERE BASED ON EYEWITNESS REPORTS AND TIME MATCHED WITH RADAR DATA. EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES. EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH NOTE: THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN NWS STORM DATA. $$ OVERPECK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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