Orangeburgwx Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 1 hour ago, ryan1234 said: It had speed up, the question is if the mesoscale features cause it to fluctuate in speed. I feel like it will. . And that makes things worse for us downstream of where it is at now... Because it will increase instabity . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 This T skew over my house for tomorrow... Not gonna be a fun day for me: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 I think this will be a mega wind event if anything. NAM has been hammering the squall line for several runs now. Would not be surprised to see numerous power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 Looking at super res velocity mode you can see wind bows scattered about the main QLCS. I’m not expecting widespread wind damage here but definitely there will be some areas that end up with them. Speaking about western GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 540's crashing and some ULL wrap around love could mean a April surprise for parts of the SE too.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 16 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: 540's crashing and some ULL wrap around love could mean a April surprise for parts of the SE too.. 925s are torching down here but upper levels support snow later today. temps here’s in ATL will be falling all day. Pretty wild weather fo sho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 Everything about the HRRR for the last several runs has been just nasty for the Carolinas on Friday. If the HRRR verifies, I can easily see the SPC go moderate for wind damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 QLCS weakened considerably over the last few hours. What came through here was eventful but not much to write about. Better luck to you guys in SE GA and the Eastern Carolinas if you like severe. It was a super under-performer in the slight risk area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 1 minute ago, LithiaWx said: QLCS weakened considerably over the last few hours. What came through here was eventful but not much to write about. Better luck to you guys in SE GA and the Eastern Carolinas if you like severe. It was a super under-performer in the slight risk area. We are in the dead of night and they are moving quicker, no surprise 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 Just now, LithiaWx said: QLCS weakened considerably over the last few hours. What came through here was eventful but not much to write about. Better luck to you guys in SE GA and the Eastern Carolinas if you like severe. It was a super under-performer in the slight risk area. The Carolinas will likely get some help from the trough tilting negative on Friday. The dynamics are just sick over central/Eastern NC by 2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: We are in the dead of night and they are moving quicker, no surprise it was hyped up pretty decently. Midnight isn’t exactly the dead of night either, it’s not like it’s 5am. Jmo, hopefully for those who like severe things will crank up farther east into eastern NC tomorrow with some heat and less north to south orientation of the dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, jjwxman said: The Carolinas will likely get some help from the trough tilting negative on Friday. The dynamics are just sick over central/Eastern NC by 2pm. Yeah if ever there was a setup for widespread straight line wind damage this is it....to add to that this last frame from the last HRRR run has a lot of small semi discrete cells right where you dont wanna see them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 11 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Yeah if ever there was a setup for widespread straight line wind damage this is it....to add to that this last frame from the last HRRR run has a lot of small semi discrete cells right where you dont wanna see them... Widspread straight line wind event hopefully is an overstatement. I’m seeing wind damage as well but more being drawn down in the stronger cells as opposed to a derecho event. I haven’t seen guidance showing a derecho but that doesn't mean it isn’t there either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 21 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Yeah if ever there was a setup for widespread straight line wind damage this is it....to add to that this last frame from the last HRRR run has a lot of small semi discrete cells right where you dont wanna see them... One of those is parked right over my house in that image.... 50+mph winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 52 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Widspread straight line wind event hopefully is an overstatement. I’m seeing wind damage as well but more being drawn down in the stronger cells as opposed to a derecho event. I haven’t seen guidance showing a derecho but that doesn't mean it isn’t there either. The LLJ is literally record setting over NC tomorrow for this time of the year especially the eastern half of the state with 925 winds 50-60 knts and 850's over 70-75 knts......a strong rain shower will mix that down so I think it is possible to see winds at least 40-50 along the line even where the storms are weakest...with plenty of 55-75 reports mixed in. The latest HRRR is rough, semi discrete line with a following squall line....the timing sucks too would put it around 4-8pm on a Friday when it is crossing central/eastern NC..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 I guess this can go here since its the 19th... new tornado watch issued... 50/30 probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 86 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Alabama Florida Panhandle Southwest Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday morning from 1230 AM until 800 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A mixed mode of storms are expected to increase overnight and generally move northeastward across the region as overall conditions become more favorable for severe thunderstorms. This includes the potential for damaging winds along with tornadoes, one or two of which could be strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 28 minutes ago, downeastnc said: The LLJ is literally record setting over NC tomorrow for this time of the year especially the eastern half of the state with 925 winds 50-60 knts and 850's over 70-75 knts......a strong rain shower will mix that down so I think it is possible to see winds at least 40-50 along the line even where the storms are weakest...with plenty of 55-75 reports mixed in. The latest HRRR is rough, semi discrete line with a following squall line....the timing sucks too would put it around 4-8pm on a Friday when it is crossing central/eastern NC..... Where can records be found for these LLJ winds? Wind is very hard to estimate but the line that came through here was whipping would not have been surprised if it was 40-45mph for a brief time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 MODERATE RISK ISSUED FOR WIND 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 14 minutes ago, yoda said: MODERATE RISK ISSUED FOR WIND And 15% tor. Kind shocked TBH. It's been a while since the last one in the region I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: And 15% tor. Kind shocked TBH. It's been a while since the last one in the region I think. 10% tor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hickory Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 There is your moderate risk people called it Wedsenday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharonA Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 The second round has been organizing itself for the last couple of hours and finally develops callable circulation right before it passes me by ... (in S Forsyth County) We've had thunder and light rain for some time, now it's just much louder, much windier, and much heavier rain. Quote BULLETIN - EAS A REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 503 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 The National Weather Service in Peachtree City has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southwestern Forsyth County in north central Georgia... Northwestern Gwinnett County in north central Georgia... Northeastern Fulton County in north central Georgia... * Until 530 AM EDT. * At 503 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Berkeley Lake, or 14 miles west of Lawrenceville, moving northeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Sandy Springs, Roswell, Johns Creek, Alpharetta, Duluth, Sugar Hill, Suwanee, Buford, Norcross, Berkeley Lake, Buford Dam-Lake Lanier Parks and Brookwood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 26m26 minutes ago The latest HRRR updraft helicity swaths. This basically shows the model forecast track of rotating thunderstorms the next 18 hours. As you can see we could have multiple rotating thunderstorms #ncwx #scwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parrothead58 Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 It’s going to be a busy day across NC/SC. (And VA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 Dayum, you guys in The Carolinas stay frosty. Thats a pretty large area of MOD risk out there. Threat honed in a bit west of where it was before. Was looking like central/Eastern NC now almost a bullseye in NC. Not discounting SC or VA just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragtop50 Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 I was within a mile of one of the tornadoes back in April of 2011. I could hear it very well (loud roar) and found paperwork in my yard from a house that was 30 miles away. Several homes were wiped off their fondation. Hopefully nothing like that day materializes today. I usually keep up with the weather but that day I was not, and had no clue what was going on. My first clue that something bad was near was the changing wind direction as the storm progressed. Moral of the story, keep an eye on things today, surprises can pop up fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 39 minutes ago, jjwxman said: It’s going to be a busy day across NC/SC. (And VA) I'm in the moderate, lets go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 Sun is peeking through here right now. NOT something you want to see on a day like this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now