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May 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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2 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

I will not light my wood burning stove.... I will not light my wood burning stove.  Guess it could be worse.  Yesterday was the 8th anniversary of my 3.1" thundersnow.  3" in about 90 minutes with frequent lightning and thunder

We have a gas jutol at the new Pit.  As much as I love the smell of a wood burning stove, I really like the fact that there's no ashes to deal with.

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1 hour ago, tamarack said:

That's the place.  Our place was at the edge of Butler Reservoir watershed land, so we could walk 3,000' north without seeing a road or house, not that common in NNJ.  I was in the last Kinnelon class to graduate from Butler HS,=; just missed being in the 1st class out of the new KHS.  Butler-Boonton was the traditional Thanksgiving Day football game back then.

I believe the former director of the Hayden Planetarium in New York (which is now Neil deGrasse Tyson's gig) retired there, at the Smoke Rise community

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11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He’s had it rough.

It's like a contest in wishcasting.  Take the weather you want, then work really hard on selling that as the outcome for 6 months straight.  

The warm season on the boards becomes this constant battle for a couple folks where every post is trying to spin a "win" of some sort like it's a sporting event.  

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56 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Man...you are really struggling this spring. I'm getting a little concerned about you...borderline meltish if this holds through all of June.

It’s been a good spring . I have zero complaints other than too much rain. Enough sun and warm days, a few humid days and zero cold. This has been the best spring south of the pike since 2012 torch.  What do you mean ? I see Freaks and others posts and I am at a loss. I haven’t complained or melted or anything. I’ve liked this spring a lot for the AN temps . Again only complaint is too much rain 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s been a good spring . I have zero complaints other than too much rain. Enough sun and warm days, a few humid days and zero cold. This has been the best spring south of the pike since 2012 torch.  What do you mean ? I see Freaks and others posts and I am at a loss. I haven’t complained or melted or anything. I’ve liked this spring a lot for the AN temps . Again only complaint is too much rain 

I wonder if that thing tomorrow corrects north in now cast...

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s been a good spring . I have zero complaints other than too much rain. Enough sun and warm days, a few humid days and zero cold. This has been the best spring south of the pike since 2012 torch.  What do you mean ? I see Freaks and others posts and I am at a loss. I haven’t complained or melted or anything. I’ve liked this spring a lot for the AN temps . Again only complaint is too much rain 

"I have zero complaints other than too much rain" 

That would be not zero complaints . 

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Spring of bizzaro modeling behavior continues...  18z GFS with sub 540 dm thickness over New England on June 4th ... wow -

Good thing for the three people amid this aggregation of seasonal malcontents, that actually qualify as warm season enthusiasts, the ensemble mean of that particular guidance is much much normalized by comparison ... indicating the operational run is an extreme outlier.  Doesn't mean the ensemble mean will verify ... but the oper. being so climate challenged while its mean is tamed to norms doesn't lend to confidence just the same. 

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All kidding and very necessary humiliating castigation of Kevin aside ... if the NAM    that models gotta be right or there could be hell to pay tomorrow.. In fact, I'd be willing to venture that despite SPC's current suppression some of that northern Indian/Ohio super cellular sever outbreak may clip SW zones/NYC...

But the 18z GFS actually hints at the warm front being up near rt 2 ...but splits the surface pressure pattern around the illusion of two distinct warm fronts - probably more representative of the model physics stressed to figure this thing out.  In any case, there's a 24 - hr lag correlation from the Lakes transference to New England so it's a situation that needs to be watched.

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11 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Tomorrow is shot no doubt. But Ryan’s 2nd Hand man on NBC30 here says where’s all the cold and BN being thrown around in here today. Looks like a fine week temp wise after tomorrow.

5KvGs2n.jpg

That looks really good when you consider the CT River Valley climate.  Damn near perfect Chamber weather if BDL/HFD is ripping off 75-80/55 type stuff... esp if you lop off the 4-8F for those outside the torch spots.  

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11 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Tomorrow is shot no doubt. But Ryan’s 2nd Hand man on NBC30 here says where’s all the cold and BN being thrown around in here today. Looks like a fine week temp wise after tomorrow.

5KvGs2n.jpg

I no longer watch local news.....are they all doing 10-day forecasts?  That's kind of a recipe for busts.

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20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Many are not good , but Ryan’s station is very good . Since the NWS has changed so much and BOX isn’t the same anymore..I don’t use that often as it’s so Machine generated

I have a hard time believing a 10-day TV forecast isn't largely a rip and read either...maybe days 1-4 aren't but I don't imagine day 5 onward has much human element involved?

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

I have a hard time believing a 10-day TV forecast isn't largely a rip and read either...maybe days 1-4 aren't but I don't imagine day 5 onward has much human element involved?

It all depends on the pattern really. Like the pattern we're in now...no way would I be comfortable with putting out a forecast for 5-6 days...let alone 10. If you're under a ridge or something that isn't going anywhere then forecasting like 8-10 days out probably will be quite accurate. 

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It all depends on the pattern really. Like the pattern we're in now...no way would I be comfortable with putting out a forecast for 5-6 days...let alone 10. If you're under a ridge or something that isn't going anywhere then forecasting like 8-10 days out probably will be quite accurate. 

Where I grew up in Southern California, the mets could have issued fully accurate 4-month precip forecasts (zero rain) and 80% accurate temp forecasts (80-90F). Here, even with a seemingly stable pattern, I wouldn't bet any money on anything past day 4.  Too many factors at play, with weather systems coming from seemingly all the cardinal points.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

I have a hard time believing a 10-day TV forecast isn't largely a rip and read either...maybe days 1-4 aren't but I don't imagine day 5 onward has much human element involved?

I know Ryan does it, but I think he uses the EPS a lot which makes sense. Like anything that far out...caveats apply. 

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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

 

Rip and read euro op when it suits you. 

Fish didn’t do well for this week no doubt. But the cold BN calls from others aren’t working out either. Month finishes slightly AN and other than today it’s a mild to warm week. And you get 3 more good rain events which you like. So everyone’s a winner 

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