May 2019 Discussion

[Torch Tiger]

Anyway, it'll be difficult to surpass last years 17 confirmed tornadoes across NE with a late start. Last year lead off with May 15th of course.

[Cyclone-68]

Biggest three in SNE were in June, August and October so anytime it gets warm is fair game really 

[ineedsnow]

Anyone got any ideas for ticks? My son got one on him the other day and I just had a huge one on me while opening the pool.. orkin has already come and still have them!! 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

22 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yup!!  DIT AND Eric Fisher gonna go down in flames with the 90’s torch for mid next week it looks like. 

It’s been a tough start for the humid humpers. They will eventually be right...kinda like the nam with a winter storm. 

It will be warm though. Torched to nyc maybe with increase in dews but not 90 in BOS like the fisher cat and his disciples are praying for.

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s been a tough start for the humid humpers. They will eventually be right...kinda like the nam with a winter storm. 

It will be warm though. Torched to nyc maybe with increase in dews but not 90 in BOS like the fisher cat and his disciples are praying for.

Correct! 

[Hoth]

2 hours ago, ApacheTrout said:

October through April = no tornadoes

May through September = max1-2 tornadoes per New England state, many years zero.

 Woah, I had no idea we were in deep tornado season.

Wasn't there a February tornado up in Mass a couple years ago? 

[Hoth]

18 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Biggest three in SNE were in June, August and October so anytime it gets warm is fair game really 

Just curious which events you're referring to. I'm assuming October '79 and June '53? What was the August event? Derecho? I'd say May '98, July '89 and June '11 deserve inclusion as well.

[Typhoon Tip]

Well ... if one wants the excitement of convection in their entertainment portfolios ... "sustained" heat does not parlay ( very well ) to thunderstorms -

Sustained heat is concomitant with static ridging ... in most cases, which is inherently capping mid levels with a plume of impenetrable, ... convection suppressing air.  I mean, one can intuitively back one's self into that conclusion without course work at all:  if it's raining, it's not torridly hot for a reason    Intermittent heat?  Now your cookin!

Not that anyone argued, just sayin' ... 

I'm not sure I agree though that there is no evidence for something more sustained to evolve. The very fact that it's happening, now, in the southeast U.S. ... mmm, you can't say that "couldn't" have set up an anticyclonic axis closer to WV/PA type latitudes.  It just happened to not do so, this time.  But that SE dome means there are kinematics in the foot-printing of the synoptics for subtropical/continental domes to occur in general ...  so one should be leery and not take trophies either.  Maybe you'll continue to get lucky. Who knows. 

As this effects areas farther North... the westerlies arcing over top is ablating the heat penetration in about every other couple of runs.  The 00z GGEM has a torrid air for two days mid week out of nowhere ... that model was heavily BD'ed through yesterday's earlier guidance cycles, but about-faced and repositioned the boundary clear up near the St Lawrence seaway on the 00z ... effectively rending the entire region even as far N as PF to Dryslot with a run into the mid or high 80s/70, with 90s pervasive down here, type torridity. That may be the transient heat for big convection Wiz needs - ha. 

Meanwhille the Euro...?   wah wah 50s and 60s regionally, with 50 DP and a very BD penis head looking pressure contouring ... indicative of complete failure for any heat transmission this far N...  Not sure I trust that layout that much though either.  It's not in the Euro wheel-house performance range yet, and a subtle over amped 'buckle' can cause these BD snow plows to set up.  Plus, it's extended range skipping summer entirely and arriving us to mid October is probably an over-sell too ... just off the top of my head.

Anyway, uncertainty for this next week is basically because we are right under the westerlies as that all determining tube of make-or-break pattern wind arcs over the SE ridge. For D4.5 + that may be too delicate a task for the club-fisted, permutation prone mid range guidance to handle. 

That said, I wouldn't bet money down on any GGEM solution... no. I'm just using that model's depiction for the purpose of making the example.  Surprisingly ... the GFS' 00z run is a compromise between the GGEM and Euro ... It has just as much chance as the Euro, at this sort of range, at realizing.  That 00z GFS runs does bring convection threat back into the mix for mid week.  06z... right back to the Euro look as the westerlies unman the firehose -

[Torch Tiger]

Yep, also Great Barrington was a May F4 

[radarman]

14 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Just curious which events you're referring to. I'm assuming October '79 and June '53? What was the August event? Derecho? I'd say May '98, July '89 and June '11 deserve inclusion as well.

Wallingford in the 1870s

[Hoth]

Just now, radarman said:

Wallingford in the 1870s

Thanks! Forgot about that beast. Still the deadliest in CT history I believe.

[radarman]

4 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Thanks! Forgot about that beast. Still the deadliest in CT history I believe.

Hamden F4 that you mentioned could have been thrown into his list.  Still hard for me to believe that the Springfield tornado in Brimfield wasn't F4 intensity at its worst, based purely on those horizontally spiralling little vortices on video that you rarely see except in the real biggies

[Ginx snewx]

Death toll at Everest now 10 geezus.

 

Yet another COC day, wow 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, radarman said:

Hamden F4 that you mentioned could have been thrown into his list.  Still hard for me to believe that the Springfield tornado in Brimfield wasn't F4 intensity at its worst, based purely on those horizontally spiralling little vortices on video that you rarely see except in the real biggies

It was

[Torch Tiger]

I remember the winter wèenies last week trumping up a cool, wet weekend fail. Sure enough it's basically a 4 out of 5 star early-summer winner.

[Cyclone-68]

25 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Just curious which events you're referring to. I'm assuming October '79 and June '53? What was the August event? Derecho? I'd say May '98, July '89 and June '11 deserve inclusion as well.

Just really considering tornados in  terms of history around here I was thinking of the Wallingford tornado of August 1878 which killed about 30 people. The greatest death toll in a storm until Worcester in ‘53

[Hoth]

2 minutes ago, radarman said:

Hamden F4 that you mentioned could have been thrown into his list.  Still hard for me to believe that the Springfield tornado in Brimfield wasn't F4 intensity at its worst, based purely on those horizontally spiralling little vortices on video that you rarely see except in the real biggies

Agree. Check out the structure on this thing. 

[Ginx snewx]

48 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Anyone got any ideas for ticks? My son got one on him the other day and I just had a huge one on me while opening the pool.. orkin has already come and still have them!! 

I spray the lawn with Triazadine through the hose,let it sit a day before allowing anyone on it. Also spray cedar oil, been 3 years since any of the 8 dogs has had a tick.   

[Hoth]

13 minutes ago, radarman said:

Hamden F4 that you mentioned could have been thrown into his list.  Still hard for me to believe that the Springfield tornado in Brimfield wasn't F4 intensity at its worst, based purely on those horizontally spiralling little vortices on video that you rarely see except in the real biggies

Speaking of the Hamden tornado, my godparents' house was right at the edge of the worst damage. I remember there was an oak tree near them that had a slate shingle buried like a hatchet a good four or five inches into the trunk. Was a curiosity in the neighborhood for years afterwards. We had a couple trees down in my yard and a couple broken windows from hail, though we were a good mile+ away. I also remember chunks of the roof of the Albertus Magnus College gym were deposited on East Rock and were hanging in the trees for a long time after.  

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Death toll at Everest now 10 geezus.

 

Yet another COC day, wow 

I saw the line of people climbing/hiking up the last ridge line on the news last evening....it’s ridiculous how many people they let go up there at once..it’s becoming almost silly/a mockery the amount of folks up there at one time imo.  And many have no business being there.  No wonder there are so many fatalities.  

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

Anyone got any ideas for ticks? My son got one on him the other day and I just had a huge one on me while opening the pool.. orkin has already come and still have them!! 

I would maintain a vigil for checking frequently ...  I wouldn't alter plans, entirely ... but considering avoiding regions where tick populations are proven, and certainly where tick-borne infections have been reported.  Which, that is admittedly getting increasingly more difficult.

The CDC and other officiated information sources are available and I'd suggest studying those as opposed ( hopefully not...) being reliant upon the conjecture found in this or other social media - duh...

As an aside, there are tick species not known to be formerly indigenous to regions of the United States, north of roughly the Mason Dixon latitudes, that are being found and found on people and their pets. Both with increasing frequency therein, but also... the advent of arriving new species is in itself increasing.  Some of these species harbor truly hideous disease agents...

These insects that directly access bodily serum and share between species as they survive within ecological biomes, are nasty and efficient caries of particularly pernicious morbidity.  But climate change is breaking down these biomes ... forcing these species to flee. In many cases, extinctions occur...in other circumstances, these newly arriving species into unknown regions parlays, and they find a rich new niche to flourish, replete with warm human blood.. mmm, yummy ... 

Surprisingly, it turns out ... it doesn't matter?  Whether life is as simplistically binary as the decision capacity of a viruses, or as sophisticated as Mozart and math ... everyone tends to move away from hostility - who would have thunk. 

No ...there's no subterfuge in subliminal attempt at social commentary or political agenda here.  Factually, climate change, regardless of cause, is a very, very insidious, yet milquetoast sounding header. One that in reality caps an untenable entangle array of dire consequences ... both directly, but also indirectly as emergent crisis because there are secondary interactions with unknown consequence.  We call this... you guessed it, an apocalypse - it's just that it's slow moving. 

Okay, so maybe a little social commentary:  The problem is, humans don't response to threats perceived via warnings ...? They never really have, ...that well. History proves this more times than one can roll their eyes in a life-span.  From Pompeii to tornado alley... civility needs Fed assistance far too frequently then their stupidity can afford, and eventually.. there won't be savior umbrella.  How's is all that painting any perceivable outcome that ends well when any consortium of scientists attempts to "warn" these global "Trump administration" ilk of Kakistocratic ethos? Answer, good luck. 

Humanity moves only when one or more of the corporeal five sentences registers a stimulus .. too hot, cold... visibly this, stench that. Some of these are starting to register ( perhaps for the longer termed good).   Otherwise, these apocalypse evidences ...they aren't arriving via the drama Hollywood cinema... There's no gray abyssal wall of tsunamis death shadowing the horizon while the Earth rumbles under feat, and angles weep in the skies.  If people are waiting for that to stop buying plastic, or burning fossil fuels, so they can sate their indulgences while Wall Street builds up the greatest human construct ever conceived, organized economics, they may be waiting for an eternity whether they are alive or dead. 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Cedar Oil, agree. The wife also makes her own  essential oil mixture that she sprays on the dogs and kids when they go outside. Forgot what she puts in it exactly but it is cedar oil based I believe.

[powderfreak]

25 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I saw the line of people climbing/hiking up the last ridge line on the news last evening....it’s ridiculous how many people they let go up there at once..it’s becoming almost silly/a mockery the amount of folks up there at one time imo.  And many have no business being there.  No wonder there are so many fatalities.  

I'd argue a little differently.  These are all experienced climbers.  I mean one has to ask if *anyone* has any business being up there but even the guided tour "tourists" are some of the more accomplished climbers out there and have done other big peaks around the world.  Most of these people have sponsorships and do it for charities and stuff like that.  The issue usually is that if you raised all this money for some cause and so many people donated a lot of money, they feel compelled to get to the summit. 

Basically though it just shows how advanced humans are getting as it was once a feat to get 1 person up there, now we've got a line on top of the world like its Saturday morning at Home Depot.

[Torch Tiger]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I'd argue a little differently.  These are all experienced climbers.  I mean one has to ask if *anyone* has any business being up there but even the guided tour "tourists" are some of the more accomplished climbers out there and have done other big peaks around the world.  Most of these people have sponsorships and do it for charities and stuff like that.  The issue usually is that if you raised all this money for some cause and so many people donated a lot of money, they feel compelled to get to the summit. 

Basically though it just shows how advanced humans are getting as it was once a feat to get 1 person up there, now we've got a line on top of the world like its Saturday morning at Home Depot.

As of 2010 the death rate was 4.3%, though it has obviously fallen a bit since. Not exactly a lock

[Torch Tiger]

19 hours ago, Dr. Dews said:

The gfs look pretty dangerous and there is at least some multi-model support. Climo peak doesn't hurt either.

Alb agreed

Upper dynamics and the associated cold front are expected to track
through our region Thursday.  Once again, timing will be important
in determining how much we heat up during the day and if the
elevated mixed layer and enhanced instability will exist along the
zone of low level convergence, strong boundary layer winds and cold
front. Highs Thursday in the 80s but around 70 to mid 70s higher
terrain. Again, the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms
will have to be watched for Wednesday and Thursday since not only
are there some instability and forcing signals in guidance but the
end of May has some history that cannot be ignored either.

 

[Cyclone-68]

Great Barrington 1995 redux?

[WinterWolf]

48 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I'd argue a little differently.  These are all experienced climbers.  I mean one has to ask if *anyone* has any business being up there but even the guided tour "tourists" are some of the more accomplished climbers out there and have done other big peaks around the world.  Most of these people have sponsorships and do it for charities and stuff like that.  The issue usually is that if you raised all this money for some cause and so many people donated a lot of money, they feel compelled to get to the summit. 

Basically though it just shows how advanced humans are getting as it was once a feat to get 1 person up there, now we've got a line on top of the world like its Saturday morning at Home Depot.

lol Home Depot...good one.  

 

It’s the height of that beast that puts it in a different class.  Almost 30 thousand feet is more than most folks(experienced or not) can handle. Only the most conditioned climbers/pros should be there.  And some of them are those types. But there are many who really shouldn’t be there I believe. And depend on the seasoned pros to get them to the summit.  Starting to seem like It’s a money making gimmick lately.

[Torch Tiger]

22 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Great Barrington 1995 redux?

Heh, not sure but this sounding isn't bad at all. 

[Lava Rock]

71f. Dew 46f. I'll take this all Summer

.

[Ginx snewx]

We pool, open for the grandkids, 63 degrees was cold but had to go in to tighten some screws and clean surface debris. We summer