Torch Tiger Posted May 21, 2019 Author Share Posted May 21, 2019 Spc chucking out supercell wording Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Just now, Dr. Dews said: Spc chucking out supercell wording Definitely not out of the question given WNW mid-level flow and a sfc flow which should have more of a S component to it. There may even be a plume of steeper lapse rates which could really help boost stronger CAPE values. I'm not just entirely impressed with the s/w though. However, to sort of add onto Tip's ideas I think we could see some elevated nocturnal convection as MUCAPE's increase and some s/w energy dives SE out of Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 8 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: Spc chucking out supercell wording Yeah I noticed that ... Though I mentioned bow segments; I was really just short-handing the discussion point. The dial is rotated around in the vectors. Typically.. .you get that WSW 700 mb with over stressed WNW at 500 mb and a surface vector of 180 ... and that more or less is what we think of as far as the Plains climo.. But in this situation, you take those vectors and pivot. Such that the surface winds may be 210 or 220 ( 190 in the valleys), with 700 mbe more WNW and 500 mb NW and accelerating.. You end up with the same bulk shear but relative storm motion is SE as opposed NE. But yeah... SC structures would be plausible back over PA ... My point is that it's trend closer to us and I wonder if that trend isn't finished.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 There is an EML lurking on Thursday night. While inverted, hail and good LTG certainly are possible for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 21, 2019 Author Share Posted May 21, 2019 I have been looking at various soundings Thu pm/night and it's not a bad look. Hope they're underestimating instability, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: There is an EML lurking on Thursday night. While inverted, hail and good LTG certainly are possible for SNE. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: There is an EML lurking on Thursday night. While inverted, hail and good LTG certainly are possible for SNE. Quite intrigued with the overnight look across VT/NH and into ME...even down here...especially if that area of steep lapse rates works out. S/w timing is solid too. All in all...may actually be a better overall look here at night than it is for the day across NY/PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Looks like another ema special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Last EML a few weeks ago generated that TOL TOR warning and that huge ping pong / tennis ball hail from UConn up thru TOL to Stafford to s Central Mass all with temps near 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Last EML a few weeks ago generated that TOL TOR warning and that huge ping pong / tennis ball hail from UConn up thru TOL to Stafford to s Central Mass all with temps near 50 I don't recall an EML with that. Was there one? I recall a major surge of MUCAPE coupled with very strong effective shear values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 27 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: I have been looking at various soundings Thu pm/night and it's not a bad look. Hope they're underestimating instability, though. You should start a thread, Oh wait............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: There is an EML lurking on Thursday night. While inverted, hail and good LTG certainly are possible for SNE. I mean that's actually not a bad look for nocturnal elevated severe convection even east of the slight risk. CON is like 1500 J/kg MUCAPE and effective shear approaching 40 knots. I'd hit that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I don't recall an EML with that. Was there one? I recall a major surge of MUCAPE coupled with very strong effective shear values. Meh on the EML there, but the elevated CAPE was all nicely situated in the hail growth zone and shear was more than sufficient for supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 52 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I don't recall an EML with that. Was there one? I recall a major surge of MUCAPE coupled with very strong effective shear values. Yes I distinctly recall Ryan talking about it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yes I distinctly recall Ryan talking about it do you remember the date this happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: do you remember the date this happened? It was Napril 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Finally reached 70 (topped at 72), 1st time since Oct. 10. Nice 10-minute downpour arrived 6:30 PM yesterday and dropped 0.19". No thunder here (except from the rain-on-roof) but the cell was warned farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: It was Napril 26 nahhh no EML (though a strip of 6 C/Km went into NE CT). Just good MUCAPE and effective shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Struggling to get above 50F up here. Snow virga up at Cu level. Mt Washington is 25F with snow showers. Surprised PF isn't posting flurry pictures at Stowe. Would guess its cold enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Screw that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 58 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Struggling to get above 50F up here. Snow virga up at Cu level. Mt Washington is 25F with snow showers. Surprised PF isn't posting flurry pictures at Stowe. Would guess its cold enough? It feels like it should be snowing. It is frigid. 1pm and sitting in my car outside the Mountain Operations office as gusty NW winds rip sheet rain sideways down the lot. Feels like a late October nor'easter. Car says 42F...at 1pm on May 20th. Fuk this. From dews in the 60s to ambient temp in the low 40s the next day on a late May afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 21, 2019 Author Share Posted May 21, 2019 GIDLT 66.7 and windy. Decided to forgo golf today as it's silly windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 One of the few days I would rather be in Nashua> Stowe Where is summer Noyes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Chamber women / men in suits taking panoramic pics everywhere in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Nice pattern developing, coc days then a frontal passage day then coc days rinse repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Nice pattern developing, coc days then a frontal passage day then coc days rinse repeat. I had not checked. Howling wind, lots of clouds and low 50's. Meanwhile clear and upper 60's down there. I want! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 38 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Nice pattern developing, coc days then a frontal passage day then coc days rinse repeat. A special stretch everyone has waited a long time for. Soak it in and get outside as much as possible folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 17 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Denver 1/4SM and heavy snow. lol. Looks like 8-12" in the Cheyenne area...crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: A special stretch everyone has waited a long time for. Soak it in and get outside as much as possible folks. Nothing special about it up here, So we will still wait a little longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Next week has a couple of 85-90 humid days Tuesday / Wednesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now