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May 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

BOS up to 85.  Rocketing.  MOS took a dump.for sure!

The writing was on the wall for that.

It was already evidence yesterday ... when the NAM's MOS in particular was sellin' 67 to 71 for a high at most sites where NWS available and the diffused warm frontal passage made short order of that cold bias really quickly when the sun kicked in and the SWerlies tsunamis'ed in. 

I did post about this several times over the last couple days, that with Lakes cutters that tote warm sectors in...  for some reason machine guidance ( GFS is also somewhat guilty but less so than the NAM) loves to strata choke the air mass and provide maybe two hours of sun on warm sector afternoons ... 1- 3 pm before it can't wait to swath it overcast again before dark.  It impedes the model's high temperatures when it does that - else I can't see why else it busted at FIT yesterday with a 71 and it hit 79 there.  That was common place pan-SNE, too...  Not sure on the south coast where ironically that vulnerability to cold shelf waters may default the NAM right.  Of course, ...now that the NAM is on top of the day it's got 84 at FIT... but like you say, it's still got 78 for Boston ...hard to separate cloud bias from southerly contamination but it's erred either way

Anyway, it's been going on for years... But these model types are going by way of Do-Do over the next three years or so ...least that's what I heard.  MOS may be a thing of the past - tho as government operations go ... three years may in fact be code for 15 but we'll see.. heh. 

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