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May 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If we can clear out and build up some CAPE, then we could see several good ones. 

I see the SPC mentions MLCAPE 1000-2000 J//KG...I can certainly see 1000...even 1200...maybe 1500 but I don't see 2000 with those lapse rates. Maybe if dews were around 70 or lower 70's

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The developing prefrontal trof will help minimize severe chances, so good news there.

Well not that this really matters in today's set-up, but I actually think the majority of our convective development/severe wx occur more with the pre-frontal trough than actual cold front...which makes sense if you really think about it. When we get those explosive setups (EML or extremely high CAPE) we can get two rounds...another with the cold front b/c of the energy still available. 

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

OK, makes sense. Hopefully we keep it tame today. 

I guess the reason is 99.9% of the time there is a pre-frontal trough involved and since it arrives before the front it makes sense that would be the forcing. These make convective forecasting that much more difficult here b/c if they arrive too early everything gets screwed up...even if very little forms with them (b/c its too early) and we have sunny skies behind them they can result in winds shifting (more west limiting convergence) and drying of the BL

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21 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

OWD leading the charge in MA 78/65  2-ply applied.

you know ... that 95/78 week we suffered back in early July last summer is still so experientially fresh in my memory that I cannot even pay any special homage to this cold spell ... 

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